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Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
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Buoy Data East Caribbean
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Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Sorry to hear of your loss. Prayers for you and your family.
Hi Silvie. Safe travels home.
Here in East Tennessee, we could use a gentle hurricane to track up the Appalachian Ridge and rain on us. It is SO dry. Everything is burned up.
Yesterday, we had upper 90’s and 20% humidity. Very unusual.
I think a turn on PR by Dean is pretty unlikely. Haiti and the Dominican Republic, however, need to watch this bad boy very, very carefully.
bump
...Dean pounding Martinique and Dominica...heading for the eastern Caribbean Sea...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for St. Lucia... Martinique... Dominica...and Guadeloupe and its dependencies.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the following islands of the Lesser Antilles...Grenada and its dependencies...Saba...St. Eustatius...Montserrat... Antigua...Nevis...St Kitts...Barbuda...St. Maarten...and Anguilla and the British Virgin Islands.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo engano to the Haiti/Dominican Republic border. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
At 800 am AST...1200z...the Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados...St. Vincent and The Grenadines been discontinued.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean...including Jamaica and the Cayman Islands...should closely monitor the progress of Dean.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 800 am AST...1200z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located by an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 14.4 north... longitude 61.7 west or 50 miles...80 km west-southwest of Martinique.
Dean is moving toward the west near 23 mph...37 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next 24 hours. This motion should take the center of Dean away from the Lesser Antilles later today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely over elevated terrain near the path of the center. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km. Fort-de-France on Martinique recently reported a wind gust of 87 mph...143 km/hr...while Dominica reported a wind gust of 64 mph...104 km/hr.
A reconnaissance plane just measured a minimum central pressure of 970 mb...28.64 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels... accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible near the center of Dean.
Storm total rainfall of 2 to 5 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches in mountainous areas...are possible in association with Dean in the Lesser Antilles. Across Puerto Rico...storm total amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be expected...with maximum amounts of up to 5 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 800 am AST position...14.4 N...61.7 W. Movement toward...west near 23 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure...970 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1100 am AST.
$$ Forecaster Avila/Mainelli
Maybe you already have all of your supplies and plans in place. If so, it’s simply a matter of wait and see until Monday.
I need a magnifying glass! :)
have all of your supplies and plans in place. If so, it’s simply a matter of wait and see
BumP!
— ap/yahoo link —
Hurricane Dean tears through Caribbean
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/tropical_weather
I was almost swamped yesterday in flooded streets (Houston)from Erin. My Tahoe was not having any trouble except for the little tiny cars that should have been left at home. I no longer have kids at home to haul around but I drive a Tahoe because our streets flood, they always have, they always will. Last year I had plywood cut to fit all our windows.
Very short version - Dean’s slowing down a bit (motion down to 23 mph) but still packing 100 mph winds, and with the Hunters back in the soup, the pressure’s dropped a bit - now down to 970 mb.
Sounds like you are quite prepared. Cutting plywood for the windows is a miserably labor intensive chore, with hanging them a close second.
URNT12 KNHC 171307 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 17/12:36:30Z B. 14 deg 26 min N 061 deg 49 min W C. NA mb 2808 m D. 102 kt E. 073 deg 009 nm F. 162 deg 100 kt G. 073 deg 012 nm H. 965 mb I. 6 C/ 3060 m J. 17 C/ 3047 m K. 11 C/ NA L. OPEN W M. C17 N. 12345/7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF304 0404A DEAN OB 11 MAX FL WIND 100 KT E QUAD 12:33:00 Z
5 mb drop...impressive
As a result, on the visible, Dean's CDO is now quite circular, with no sign of dry air feeding into the circulation.
With predictable results.
000 URNT12 KNHC 171105 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 17/10:50:30Z B. 14 deg 22 min N 061 deg 18 min W C. NA mb 2841 m D. 72 kt E. 313 deg 008 nm F. 064 deg 083 kt G. 318 deg 018 nm H. 970 mb I. 11 C/ 3052 m J. 17 C/ 3060 m K. 11 C/ NA L. CLOSED WALL M. E07/17/15 N. 12345/7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF304 0404A DEAN OB 04 MAX FL WIND 83 KT NW QUAD 10:45:00 Z
Should be an interesting 11 am update. The 5 am didn't see 100-knot (115 mph) winds coming out of Dean until tomorrow afternoon.
Anyone heard from Joe Bastardi? Or have the networks finally figured out what a huckster he is? Wherever he is, I hope he stays hidden.
Joe is so well-hidden, he’s no longer at AccuWeather.
Looks like East Texas won't be the only place those prices go out of sight.
Cat 3 is a very real possibility by day’s end, and the models are drifting slightly north. All spell trouble.
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