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Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.
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Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
| Tropical Storm Public Advisory |
...Outer bands of Dean moving through the Windward Islands...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of St. Lucia...Martinique...Dominica...and Guadeloupe and its dependencies. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...the meteorological service of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the island of Anguilla. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the following islands of the Lesser Antilles...Grenada and its dependencies...St. Vincent and The Grenadines...Barbados...Saba...St. Eustatius... monserrat...Antigua...Nevis...St Kitts...Barbuda and St. Maarten.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Additional watches or warnings are likely later this evening.
Interests in the central and western Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Dean.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 800 PM AST...0000z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 14.0 north...longitude 57.8 west or about 205 miles...330 km...east of Martinique.
Dean is moving toward the west near 23 mph...37 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue tonight and tomorrow. On this track...the center of Dean will be crossing the Lesser Antilles early Friday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely over elevated terrain. Some strengthening is forecast before the hurricane reaches the Lesser Antilles. A wind gust of 58 mph was recently reported in St. Lucia in one of the outer rainbands of Dean.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km...from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb...28.91 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels... accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible near the center of Dean.
Storm total rainfalls of 2 to 5 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in mountainous areas...are possible in association with Dean. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 800 PM AST position...14.0 N...57.8 W. Movement toward...west near 23 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure...979 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST.
$$ Forecaster Franklin/Brown
One down, 57 to go (according to the global warming crowd).
Keep Dean south! Keep Dean south!
Why did you leave yer butt outside?
;<)
thread marker
I was wondering about that. I’ve been trying to find Erin models to see which ones were low.
Hey CD
Saw the track and remembered where you lived. Hope you have been well (and I hope Dean loses interest in your neck of the woods).
Stay safe.
v.
Bump
The satellite signature has looked a bit ragged over the last few hours. The dry air to the north seems to keep giving the system a bit of indigestion.
Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on August 16, 2007
...Dean approaching the Windward Islands...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for St. Lucia... Martinique...
Dominica...and Guadeloupe and its dependencies. Preparations to
protect life and property should be very near completion.
At 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued
for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. A Tropical Storm
Warning remains in effect for the following islands of the Lesser
Antilles...Grenada and its dependencies...St. Vincent and The
Grenadines...Barbados...Saba...St. Eustatius... Montserrat...
Antigua...Nevis...St Kitts...Barbuda...St. Maarten...and Anguilla.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
At 1100 PM AST...a tropical storm watch has been issued for the
South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo engano to the
Haiti/Dominican Republic border. A tropical storm watch means that
tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests in the central and western Caribbean...including
Haiti...Jamaica...and the Cayman Islands...should closely
monitor the progress of Dean.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 1100 PM AST...0300z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 14.1 north...longitude 58.7 west or about 160 miles...
255 km...east-southeast of Martinique and about 80 miles...130 km...
northeast of Barbados.
Dean is moving toward the west near 25 mph...41 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the
forecast track...the center of Dean will be passing very near the
islands of St. Lucia and Martinique within the next six to twelve
hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Dean is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely
over elevated terrain near the path of the center. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140
miles...220 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb...28.82 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...
accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible
near the center of Dean.
Storm total rainfall of 2 to 5 inches...with isolated maximum
amounts of 10 inches in mountainous areas...are possible in
association with Dean in the Lesser Antilles. Across Puerto
Rico...storm total amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be expected...with
maximum amounts of up to 5 inches. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 1100 PM AST position...14.1 N...58.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 25 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph.
Minimum central pressure...976 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 500
am AST.
$$
Forecaster Franklin/Brown
Hope that keeps up. Now we’ll see...probably northern mexico...what do you think?
the satellite presentation of Dean has deteriorated a bit over the last 12 hours...with no evidence of an eye in conventional or microwave imagery. The SFMR instrument on the earlier Air Force flight recorded a peak surface wind of 88 kt around 19z in the southeast portion of the eyewall...along with very little wind in the southwest quadrant of the circulation. Based on the earlier aircraft data and recent structural trends...the initial intensity is held at 85 kt. Communications difficulties during the reconnaissance mission prevented much of the data from getting to US...but dropsonde data called in afterward by the crew indicate the central pressure is a little lower than previously estimated... about 976 mb.
The initial motion is 275/22. Dean is south of a mid-level ridge that has been moving westward in tandem with the cyclone. Global model guidance is in excellent agreement that it will continue to do so for most of the forecast period...and the guidance is very tightly clustered on a west to west-northwest track for at least the next 72 hours. After that...the track of Dean will depend on how much interaction there is between the hurricane and a mid- to upper-level low currently northeast of the Bahamas. All the available guidance currently moves this low westward out of the way and shows very little interaction between the two...and hence only a modest rightward Bend in the track on days 4 and 5. The official forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory track. Given the uncertainty in global model forecasts at long ranges however...a different evolution with the upper low is not out of the question.
Dean continues to exhibit a strong outflow pattern...and this favorable upper flow is expected to persist for the next two to three days. Data from the NOAA G-IV mission this evening show no evidence of unfavorable thermodynamics in the near environment... and the available objective guidance indicates continued strengthening in the Caribbean. The upper flow could be a little less favorable in the western Caribbean...particularly if the upper low lags a bit. The official forecast calls for slightly faster development than the previous advisory but ends up in the same place...and is in good agreement with the available objective guidance.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 17/0300z 14.1n 58.7w 85 kt
12hr VT 17/1200z 14.5n 61.9w 90 kt
24hr VT 18/0000z 15.1n 65.8w 95 kt
36hr VT 18/1200z 15.7n 69.2w 105 kt
48hr VT 19/0000z 16.4n 72.6w 115 kt
72hr VT 20/0000z 18.0n 80.0w 120 kt
96hr VT 21/0000z 19.5n 86.0w 120 kt
120hr VT 22/0000z 22.0n 92.0w 90 kt
1100 PM AST position...14.1 N...58.7 W. Movement toward...west near 25 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure has dropped another 3 mb to 976 mb.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Doc Frank thinks it’ll go into Mexico. Just watched his weather report on it.
Hey. How are you? Thanks.
However, I'm not sure how the the hurricane's rapid forward speed is factored into the long range models. The forecasts had been factoring in trough/ridge that would influence Dean's direction. As well, a storm moving this quickly is typically hindered in strengthening.
thanks!
I think Doc Frank sees that. He didn’t think much of Erin...at all. In fact, I don’t think he felt it should have been upgraded to a TS. The un-organization of it is what he continued to talk about. He knew it would not strengthen at all.
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