Tropical Storm Public Advisory |
...Outer bands of Dean moving through the Windward Islands...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of St. Lucia...Martinique...Dominica...and Guadeloupe and its dependencies. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...the meteorological service of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the island of Anguilla. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the following islands of the Lesser Antilles...Grenada and its dependencies...St. Vincent and The Grenadines...Barbados...Saba...St. Eustatius... monserrat...Antigua...Nevis...St Kitts...Barbuda and St. Maarten.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Additional watches or warnings are likely later this evening.
Interests in the central and western Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Dean.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 800 PM AST...0000z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 14.0 north...longitude 57.8 west or about 205 miles...330 km...east of Martinique.
Dean is moving toward the west near 23 mph...37 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue tonight and tomorrow. On this track...the center of Dean will be crossing the Lesser Antilles early Friday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely over elevated terrain. Some strengthening is forecast before the hurricane reaches the Lesser Antilles. A wind gust of 58 mph was recently reported in St. Lucia in one of the outer rainbands of Dean.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km...from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb...28.91 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels... accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible near the center of Dean.
Storm total rainfalls of 2 to 5 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in mountainous areas...are possible in association with Dean. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 800 PM AST position...14.0 N...57.8 W. Movement toward...west near 23 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure...979 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST.
$$ Forecaster Franklin/Brown
One down, 57 to go (according to the global warming crowd).
the satellite presentation of Dean has deteriorated a bit over the last 12 hours...with no evidence of an eye in conventional or microwave imagery. The SFMR instrument on the earlier Air Force flight recorded a peak surface wind of 88 kt around 19z in the southeast portion of the eyewall...along with very little wind in the southwest quadrant of the circulation. Based on the earlier aircraft data and recent structural trends...the initial intensity is held at 85 kt. Communications difficulties during the reconnaissance mission prevented much of the data from getting to US...but dropsonde data called in afterward by the crew indicate the central pressure is a little lower than previously estimated... about 976 mb.
The initial motion is 275/22. Dean is south of a mid-level ridge that has been moving westward in tandem with the cyclone. Global model guidance is in excellent agreement that it will continue to do so for most of the forecast period...and the guidance is very tightly clustered on a west to west-northwest track for at least the next 72 hours. After that...the track of Dean will depend on how much interaction there is between the hurricane and a mid- to upper-level low currently northeast of the Bahamas. All the available guidance currently moves this low westward out of the way and shows very little interaction between the two...and hence only a modest rightward Bend in the track on days 4 and 5. The official forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory track. Given the uncertainty in global model forecasts at long ranges however...a different evolution with the upper low is not out of the question.
Dean continues to exhibit a strong outflow pattern...and this favorable upper flow is expected to persist for the next two to three days. Data from the NOAA G-IV mission this evening show no evidence of unfavorable thermodynamics in the near environment... and the available objective guidance indicates continued strengthening in the Caribbean. The upper flow could be a little less favorable in the western Caribbean...particularly if the upper low lags a bit. The official forecast calls for slightly faster development than the previous advisory but ends up in the same place...and is in good agreement with the available objective guidance.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 17/0300z 14.1n 58.7w 85 kt
12hr VT 17/1200z 14.5n 61.9w 90 kt
24hr VT 18/0000z 15.1n 65.8w 95 kt
36hr VT 18/1200z 15.7n 69.2w 105 kt
48hr VT 19/0000z 16.4n 72.6w 115 kt
72hr VT 20/0000z 18.0n 80.0w 120 kt
96hr VT 21/0000z 19.5n 86.0w 120 kt
120hr VT 22/0000z 22.0n 92.0w 90 kt