Posted on 07/05/2007 1:34:26 PM PDT by Reaganesque
A second New Hampshire poll in less than a month shows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney pulling ahead of former front-runners John McCain and Rudy Giuliani and into first place in the leadoff Presidential primary campaign.
The American Research Group's June 27-30 poll of 600 likely Republican primary voters has Romney with the support of 27 percent of those surveyed, compared to 21 percent for McCain and 19 percent for Giuliani.
A month ago, the same poll showed Romney trailing McCain, 30 to 23 percent and in a virtual tie with Giuliani, who received the support of 21 percent.
The new poll also shows that among 600 likely Democratic primary voters, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton continues to lead the Democratic pack with 34 percent, unchanged since May, but that Barack Obama has moved ahead of John Edwards and into second place, with the support 25 percent of those polled. Edwards was backed by 18 percent of those polled in May, while Obama in May was backed by 15 percent. The June poll shows Edwards at 15 percent.
Both party polls have margins of error of 4 percent.
In the new Republican poll, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson jumped from 3 percent in May to 10 percent, apparently taking support from McCain and Giuliani.
Thompson, who visited the state last week as the poll was being taken, is not yet a candidate, but has strongly hinted that he will run.
Former House speaker Newt Gingrich, who is also not a candidate, drew 4 percent, the same percentage as in May, while Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, and Tom Tancredo received 1 percent each, and 14 percent were undecided.
Romney led among self-described Republicans with 29 percent, compared to 21 percent for Giuliani and 18 percent for McCain. Among independents, McCain led with 29 percent, while Romney followed with 22 percent and Giuliani 19 percent.
In the Democratic poll, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson headed the second tier with 6 percent, while Joe Biden received 4 percent, Dennis Kucinich received 3 percent, Mike Gravel received 2 percent, non-candidate Wesley Clark 1 percent, and 11 percent were undecided.
Clinton led among Democrats with 35 percent, compared to 25 percent for Obama and 11 percent for Edwards. She also led among independents, drawing 33 percent compared to 26 percent for Obama and 12 for Edwards.
Romney's growing strength in New Hampshire was first indicated in mid-June, when a poll conducted by UNH for CNN and WMUR showed him pulling into the GOP lead, with 28 percent, compared to 20 percent for Giuliani and 20 percent for McCain.
The UNH Democratic poll had Clinton leading Obama, 36 to 22 percent, with Edwards at 12 percent.
>>>Look, I don’t like it that these two little states have such a disproportionate say in our presidential elections<<<
I actually do like the idea. I think it’s fantastic and one of the things that makes our political system better than it could be. To have candidates going from small town to small town, talking to individual groups of people. Meeting with local business leaders. That’s a very, very good thing.
First, it allows a sector of the population to come to know the candidates well. It creates a small group of people who see it as a responsibility to inform themselves, to read up on these candidates, and to vote accordingly.
It also forces our politicians to field questions from small groups of people over and over again, and it allows them to truly hear the voice of the people. You even hear candidates like Brownback rethinking his stance on immigration after speaking to the American people. That’s a good thing, if you ask me.
I like having Iowa and New Hampshire first. I think both states are excellent testing grounds for the national campaign, as well.
I like Fred too, but I am afraid he is too lazy to put forth the effort it takes to run a presidential campaign.
The California poll showing Romney in the lead wasn’t an accurate sampling. More people labelled themselves as extremely conservative than you would see in a more general poll, and more people were also college-educated than you see in the general populace in California.
Both of those played into Romney’s favor, especially against Giuliani.
That said, I think Romney has a very strong chance of taking California. If it comes down to him and Thompson, I believe he will. Mainly because his business-oriented approach will sell better there, where Thompson’s deep-fried southerness won’t sell as well as in other parts of the country.
The only way I see him taking CA is if a) Fred doesn’t run and b) Rudy stumbles significantly.
Odds of both happening are low.
But believe what you will.
Romney is going to win Iowa and New Hampshire. I think those are locks. He’s also doing very well in Michigan and Nevada which are early and important.
He will probably need to improve his rank in South Carolina (2nd or 3rd would be acceptable). He also has to have a decent showing in California. I don’t believe he is winning here right now, but I think it’s doable. I’ve already seen some of his ads (and I haven’t seen anyone elses yet on tv).
I really think he is the best positioned. Rudy has the best name recognition, but I think most conservatives if given the choice between Rudy or Mitt are going to go for Mitt and I think Thompson is a great person to augment another campaign but not necessarily to lead it. Fred will have the VP job if he doesn’t win himself for the asking, I’m sure of that.
Add in to all of that for Romney that the money raising has been solid, he has vast personal wealth to supplement, he has good speaking skills (2nd only to Rudy), and looks wise he absolutely outshines the rest and I think he’s going to win when it’s all said and done.
I didn’t claim it to be accurate and it is, after all, just one poll. I merely cited it to support the notion that it seems to indicate that he has a shot in California. However, unless the sample was taken from his direct family or a Mormon ward in CA, it shows that there is a significant amount of support for him. Just how big it really is and whether that translates to victory there, we shall see.
Florida will award three delegates to the winner in each of its twenty-something Congressional districts. Florida will then award another group of delegates, again about twenty-something if I remember correctly, to the overall winner of the state. If I'm getting the numbers right, the winner of Florida may pick up just a few more delegates than the candidate who finishes second. Mr. Thompson has the best chance of winning large numbers of districts plus the overall state to make Florida a huge win. That win would make him hard to beat. However, a win for Mr. Romney after winning two caucuses and a primary will look very good. The "winner-take-all" rules in the New York primary will keep Rudy Giuliani in the race until February 5, but a loss in Florida would hurt him badly.
Bill
It's the 21st Century. Things have radically changed.
Thompson could not have accomplished this feat in the 70s.
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