Threat Matrix: July 2007

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[nwctwx]

Threat Matrix:
July 2007

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US Steps Up Security Following Attack in Britain

Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff made appearances on several television talk shows.

He told ABC's This Week program there is no indication of a linkage between the events in Britain and any specific attacks on the United States. "We do not have, at this point, specific, credible intelligence that there is an attack, a particular attack, focused on this country," he said.

But at the same time, speaking on CNN's Late Edition program, Chertoff said U.S. authorities are concerned about the threat of terrorism, especially in the coming months. "We have had a number of al-Qaida leaders quite publicly talking about how they want to carry out their threats against the West. So, given that and given the history that we have had over past summers, with attacks in Britain, I think we were clearly focused on this as a possibility," he said. Full story...

	More United Kingdom Attacks Possible
	More US Air Marshals on Flights to Europe
	Officials: Car Bomb Plot Bears al Qaida's Trademark

[Cindy]

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/?entry=26267_UK_Terrorist_Attacked_in_Prison&only

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtLxKQS6FCM

“Dhiren Barot Attacked in Prison”
(Added July 15, 2007)

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ON THE NET...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9GVvyuy-vc&mode=related&search=

“Dhiren Barot’s ‘Holiday Videos’ Part Two”
(Added November 9, 2006)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4nrAnY6POs&mode=related&search=

“Dhiren Barot’s ‘Holiday Videos’”
(Added November 8, 2006)

[Cindy]

Note: The following post is a quote:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1866899/posts

‘Pakistan’s nuclear crown jewels safe in military’s custody’
Daily Times ^ | Tuesday, July 17, 2007 | Khalid Hasan

Posted on 07/16/2007 4:40:29 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

WASHINGTON: A Pakistani nuclear safety expert has claimed that the country’s “nuclear crown jewels” are safe in the hands of the army and cannot fall under the control of extremists or terrorists.

According to Lt Col Zafar Ali of Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division, who spent four months at the Stimson Centre as a visiting fellow, if the “ Chinese government could maintain control of its nuclear weapons during the Cultural Revolution, Pakistan’s military can also maintain close watch and control over its nuclear crown jewels … The odds are still heavily in favour of the military maintaining strict command and control.”

In a paper Col Ali wrote at the conclusion of his assignment, he said Pakistan has a well structured command and control system and its export control law on sensitive material and technology is aligned with international standards and the non-proliferation regime.

He writes that the induction of new and sophisticated weapons in South Asia is destabilising as it could initiate an arms race. It is in Pakistan’s interest to reduce asymmetry in conventional forces to keep the nuclear threshold high. He calls the US-India civil nuclear deal an unhelpful development, since it creates an exception to non-proliferation rules and norms based on one country, rather than on specific criteria or energy needs.

Col Ali notes that over the past couple of years there has been a renewed emphasis by Washington and some Western countries that nuclear weapons and materials in South Asia especially in Pakistan are vulnerable to terrorists’ or extremists’ control – “a seemingly deliberate effort to undermine the credibility of Pakistan’s command and control”. He admits that like any other country, Pakistan also faces terrorist threats from non-state actors or extremist groups operating in the region and beyond; however, the dangers to nuclear assets and materials are not as grave as perceived in the West.

Col Ali agrees that media reports on Dr AQ Khan’s non-state network raised lingering suspicions, as a consequence overshadowing Pakistan’s efforts to harness a coherent command and control system. The security environment of the region and the innate opacity and lack of information about the Pakistani nuclear programme further provoke worries. Although Pakistan has put in place effective remedies to prevent the recurrence of past malpractice, no nation can be satisfied as improvement is a continuous phenomenon.

“The question arises as to why Pakistan is regarded as suspect. There are three reasons: firstly, the legacy of AQ Khan’s proliferation network; secondly, Pakistan’s proximity to the region where Al Qaeda and Taliban remnants are located; and thirdly because of religious conservatism in Pakistani society. Pakistan’s nuclear assets are under custodial control and weak links in management and oversight have been addressed to prevent the recurrence of any proliferation activity. While Al Qaeda and the Taliban have no direct bearing on Pakistan’s nuclear assets, the threat from their affiliates and extremist groups is genuinely worrisome. Nevertheless, instances of illicit trafficking of nuclear material and loss of control over nuclear assets in other countries should not be made a basis to raise suspicions over Pakistan’s nuclear assets.”

[Cindy]

http://www.truthusa.com/IRAN.html

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http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1866781/posts

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http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070716/EDITORIAL/107160003

“Chilling Iranian stories”
By Nir Boms
July 16, 2007

[Godzilla]

placemark

[Godzilla]

Assassination, the final sign that was to trigger the next round of AQ attacks. It started that way in 2001, with the death of the anti-Taliban warlord, it has been announced over the past couple of years by AQ mouthpieces. My question is “who would be the most vulnerable and high enough profile?”

The following is my speculation. One answer - Musharraf of Pakistan. I believe he knows it as well as the administration. It is likely that his current aggressive posture against the Waristan tribal leaders and radical imans is targeted to throw the assassination attempt off. His intelligence is good and he probably caught wind of the soon to be completed plot during the standoff. Clearly the jihadists have wanted him dead for a long time, so why act now? Because he showed weakness in agreeing to the truce with the tribal leaders, allowing the radicals to reinforce themselves to the point of openly challenging him. This same weakness has allowed AQ to reconstitute to a degree in Pakistani training camps - safe from US forces. Now that they are ready to strike again, they want to rid themselves of Musharraf so that there will be no Pakistani response to the attacks as the country’s leadership would be in chaos or possibly under the control of jihadists. This is a slightly similar plot to the anti-Taliban warlord - permit Taliban/AQ consolidation of Afghanistan to buffer them from the US response (which they grossly under judged). This time they are counting on a larger jihadist influenced public base for protection and buffering after the next attack, assuming that the US will be tied up elsewhere (which could well be the case if Iran/Syria/Hamas/Hezbolla use a chaos following a massive 9/11 level event to strike Israel).

My gut says “watch Musharraf”.

[SlowBoat407]

G, I have been thinking that for some time now. With Musharraf out of the way, the US would have little to no help in Pakistan, and we would have to risk an unauthorized incursion to chase AQ into the tribal regions. That would turn many muslims who are on the fence against us, as they see West invading their lands. It basically creates a no-win situation for us, since we show weakness if we don’t go after them, and we create more enemies if we do.

[nw_arizona_granny]

Thank you for Laura’s speech link.

[Rushmore Rocks]

“Watch Musharraf”

Sadly, I agree with both of you. His disappearance would greatly aid AQ.

[nwctwx]

Al Qa’ida’s Resurgence (Segment 1)
03:43

http://youtube.com/watch?v=mVac8vQJ_Bc

7/16/07 — MSNBC: The National Intelligence Estimate on al Qa’ida is expected to be released this week. Early leaks of the report 7/16/07 — MSNBC: The National Intelligence Estimate on al Qa’ida is expected to be released this week. Early leaks of the report indicate that al Qa’ida has regained strength and post 9/11 efforts have not crippled the organization. Evan Kohlmann discusses the current threat and number of events that have happened recently. He warns against linking failed attacks directly to al Qa’ida. The new tape containing unseen footage of bin Laden is also a concern in light of recent events, but it may be nothing as we did hear from him around this time last year. While important, Kohlmann reminds us that the organization can easily continue without bin Laden being alive, he suspects that bin Laden is alive because al Qa’ida would have no reason to hide his death. Kohlmann also touches on Pakistan and the real problem of terrorism within the country that now has a broad reach into Europe and beyond.

= =

Al Qa’ida’s Resurgence (Segment 2)
03:52

http://youtube.com/watch?v=WbkURpumtVo

7/16/07 — MSNBC: National security officials are warning that an attack against the U.S. could be imminent. An unclassified vers 7/16/07 — MSNBC: National security officials are warning that an attack against the U.S. could be imminent. An unclassified version of the National Intelligence estimate is expected this week. Steve Emerson addresses statements by Stephen Hadley that al Qa’ida is weaker than it was on 9/11 but stronger than it was immediately following by stating that we are trying to interrupt operations overseas by collecting intelligence, bombing hideouts and trying to find Zawahri (who is intricately connected — maybe more so than bin Laden. This was not the case pre 9/11 and it makes a big difference. Emerson discusses the recent overseas proliferation of “homegrown terrorists” who are self-appointed and not necessarily connected to al Qa’ida. On the issue of “warning fatigue” Emerson believes that people are listening to the current warnings due to multiple threat signals now on the horizon.

= =

Terror Watch: Al Qa’ida Growing Stronger?
03:41

http://youtube.com/watch?v=9fhbNSEDYmM

7/16/07 — CNN: The Taliban pulling out of a peace agreement with the Pakistani government has become the latest of several new si 7/16/07 — CNN: The Taliban pulling out of a peace agreement with the Pakistani government has become the latest of several new signs that al Qa’ida is gaining strength in the Pakistan/Afghanistan area. The Taliban has now declared that they will go into all out war with the Pakistani government. Peter Bergen explains that the peace agreement was a weak one to begin with but also notes that attacks are increasing and targeting more officials of the government. Peter also speaks of the bin Laden tape with “new” footage that has not been previously been seen and how it is puzzling that he has not been on tape much recently while pointing to possible fear of being tracked through trail leads.

[Cindy]

ON THE NET...

http://www.internet-haganah.com/haganah/internet.html

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2-up.info/uploads/4383fac5de.gif
www.ekhlaas.org/forum/showthread.php?t=69827
2-up.info/uploads/a0581db5a3.gif
www.ekhlaas.org/forum/showthread.php?t=69820
www.ekhlaas.org
www.ekhlaas.org/forum/

[callmejoe]

http://www.nysun.com/article/58507

Iran Is Found To Be a Lair of Al Qaeda
Intelligence Estimate Cites Two Councils
BY ELI LAKE - Staff Reporter of the Sun
July 17, 2007 (excerpt)

WASHINGTON — One of two known Al Qaeda leadership councils meets regularly in eastern Iran, where the American intelligence community believes dozens of senior Al Qaeda leaders have reconstituted a good part of the terror conglomerate’s senior leadership structure. . .

. . .one of the Shura Majlis for Al Qaeda meets in the federally administered tribal areas of Pakistan, one of the areas the Pakistani army this week re-engaged after a yearlong cease-fire. Both Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, participate in those meetings.

The other Shura Majlis is believed to meet in eastern Iran in the network established after Al Qaeda was driven from Afghanistan in 2001. Following that battle, a military planner trained in the Egyptian special forces, Saif al-Adel, fled to Iran. Mr. Zawahri then arranged with the then commander of Iran’s Quds Force, Ahmad Vahidi, for safe harbor for senior leaders.

The three main Al Qaeda leaders in Iran include Mr. Adel; the organization’s minister of propaganda, Suleiman Abu Ghaith, and the man who some analysts believe is the heir apparent to Mr. bin Laden — one of his sons, Saad bin Laden. The locations of the senior leaders include a military base near Tehran called Lavizan; a northern suburb of Tehran, Chalous; an important holy city, Mashod, and a border town near Afghanistan, Zabul, the draft intelligence estimate says. In 2003, Iran offered a swap of the senior leaders in exchange for members of an Iranian opposition group on America’s list of foreign terrorist organizations, the People’s Mujahadin.

That deal was scuttled after signal intercepts proved, according to American intelligence officials, that Mr. Adel was in contact with an Al Qaeda cell in Saudi Arabia.

In the aftermath of the failed deal, Al Qaeda’s Iran branch has worked closely in helping to establish the group in Iraq. The late founder of Al Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, had multiple meetings with Mr. Adel after 2001. In the past year, the multinational Iraq command force has intercepted at least 10 couriers with instructions from the Iran-based Shura Majlis. In addition, two senior leaders of Al Qaeda captured in 2006 have shared details of the Shura Majlis in Iran. . .

[Cindy]

Thanks to Nick Grace for this new edition of Global Crisis Watch.
(http://www.globalcrisiswatch.com)

Note: following text is a quote:

Global Crisis Watch
July 16, 2007 | Episode #53
Dread in Washington and Islamabad over al Qaeda’s Summer campaign, crisis brewing in Lebanon, and Iranian games continue

Global Crisis Watch discusses al Qaeda’s Summer campaign and the growing sense of dread in Washington and Islamabad, expectation of war in Lebanon as Hezbollah rearms, and Iran’s continuing efforts to stall efforts to close its nuclear weapons program. Guests: Dr. Rohan Gunaratna, International Center for Political Violence and Terrorism in Singapore, Dr. Walid Phares, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, and Alireza Jafarzadeh, Strategic Policy Consulting.

Link: http://www.GlobalCrisisWatch.com/gcw/gcw_070716.mp3
44:00 minutes | 21.0 Megs

[Cindy]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=iran
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=hamas
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=gaza
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=gazastrip

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http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_multimedia/English/eng_n/html/hamastan_0707e.htm

Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center
at the Israel Intelligence Heritage & Commemoration Center (IICC)
July 15 , 2007

“Iran and Hamastan: From Iran’s perspective, the establishment of a Hamas-dominated entity in the Gaza Strip presents both opportunities and risks, in general tipping the scales in Iran’s favor. Iran publicly recognized the legitimacy of Ismail Haniya’s government and is expected to continue providing Hamas with economic and military aid.”

[Cindy]

I would really like to not agree with you, but I can’t.

“Because he showed weakness in agreeing to the truce with the tribal leaders, allowing the radicals to reinforce themselves to the point of openly challenging him.”

Yep, that’s the moment in the spotlight, Godzilla.

[Cindy]

http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page=/Nation/archive/200707/NAT20070716b.html

“Documents Cite Further Offending by Smuggler in Border Agents Case”
By Fred Lucas
CNSNews.com Staff Writer
July 16, 2007

ARTICLE SNIPPET: “(CNSNews.com) - Cipriano Ortiz-Hernandez hung his head and confessed that he was storing marijuana in his Clint, Texas, home when federal authorities turned up there.

He admitted to Drug Enforcement Administration agents that he was being paid to hide the drugs by dealers who delivered marijuana on ten occasions in the four months before the agents showed up at his door on Oct. 23, 2005.

According to DEA documents labeled “sensitive,” obtained by Cybercast News Service, Ortiz-Hernandez identified one of the drug dealers as Osvaldo Aldrete-Davila, a Mexican who at the time was under a federal immunity deal for a previous drug offense.

Aldrete-Davila was the man at the center of a notorious case in which two U.S. Border Patrol agents were imprisoned earlier this year, unleashing a controversy that continues and will be the subject of Senate hearings this week.

On Feb. 17, 2005, Aldrete-Davila tried to smuggle more than 700 pounds of marijuana across the Mexican border into Texas. Border agents Ignacio Ramos and Jose Compean confronted him and he was shot in the buttocks while escaping on foot back into Mexico. Federal prosecutors struck a deal with the Mexican to testify against the two agents in exchange for immunity from prosecution for that offense.

Aldrete-Davila returned to the United States, received free medical treatment at an Army hospital, and was also given “humanitarian passes” allowing him to enter and exit the country as he pleased, while receiving medical treatment for the bullet wound.

As a Senate panel prepares to investigate the prosecution of Ramos and Compean at a hearing on Tuesday, lawmakers have said that one of the questions they intend to put to U.S. attorney Johnny Sutton — the prosecutor who offered the immunity deal — will deal with a second alleged offense by Aldrete-Davila.

“Why was this drug smuggler allowed to get immunity from prosecution without pleading guilty to any crime, then allowed get essentially a visa where he’s allowed to travel back and forth into the U.S.?” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) asked during a telephone press conference late last week.”

[Cindy]

http://www.ice.gov/pi/news/newsreleases/articles/070716washington.htm

July 16, 2007

“Money laundering forfeiture complaint filed against $110 million in proceeds”
WASHINGTON

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http://www.ice.gov/pi/news/newsreleases/articles/070712springfield.htm

July 12, 2007

“Former QSI supervisor pleads guilty to harboring illegal aliens, aiding aggravated identity fraud”
SPRINGFIELD, Ill.

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http://www.ice.gov/pi/news/newsreleases/articles/071207santaana.htm

July 12, 2007

“10 U.S. citizens latest defendants indicted in landmark marriage fraud probe
Probe targets Orange County network that arranged sham marriages primarily for Asian aliens”
SANTA ANA, Calif.

[Cindy]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=taliban
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=taleban

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http://www.memritv.org

http://www.memritv.org/Search.asp?ACT=S5&P1=9

http://www.memri.org/jihad.html

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http://memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=subjects&Area=jihad&ID=SP165907

Special Dispatch Series - No. 1659
July 17, 2007 No.1659

“‘The Neo-Talibans’ – Al-Jazeera TV Documentary on the Mentality and Methods of the Taliban
The following are excerpts from a television documentary on the “Neo-Talibans,” which aired on Al-Jazeera TV on July 5, 2007:

To view clip, visit:http://www.memritv.org/search.asp?ACT=S9&P1=1508 “

[Cindy]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=peru

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http://www.travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/pa/pa_2702.html

PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Office of the Spokesman
This information is current as of today, Tue Jul 17 2007 01:37:56 GMT-0700.

Peru

July 13, 2007

[Cindy]

UPDATE:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,289549,00.html
(AP)

“Authorities Investigate New Possible Radioactive Leak at Japanese Nuclear Plant Hit by Earthquake”
Tuesday, July 17, 2007

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http://www.japantoday.com/jp/news/412418

“9 dead, over 900 hurt in M6.8 quake in Niigata, vicinity”
Tuesday, July 17, 2007 at 07:31 EDT
KASHIWAZAKI

[Cindy]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=globaljihad
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=jihad

http://www.billroggio.com/cgi-bin/cms/mt-search.cgi?tag=Afghanistan&blog_id=1
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=afghanistan

http://www.billroggio.com/cgi-bin/cms/mt-search.cgi?tag=Pakistan&blog_id=1
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=pakistan

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http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=29151

“The Coming War in Pakistan”
By Stephen Brown
FrontPageMagazine.com | July 17, 2007