Why are we all working so hard faxing, calling and emailing?
Posted on 06/25/2007 11:59:42 AM PDT by Jacksonville Patriot
Latest on the Cloture Vote for the Immigration Deal [Jim Geraghty]
Just spoke to a spokesman for a Republican opposed to the deal, and helping lead the opposition. Here's what we know right now:
1. Tomorrow is the first test, on the vote to bring it back to the floor. Deal supporters need 60. Opponents think they have about 33-35 right now, so they only need about five to seven more. Kirkorian's earlier Corner post was praised for its accuracy.
Some Republicans on the fence are going to try to have it both ways - vote to bring it back to the floor, so they can get their amendments considered, but not necessarily promise to vote for a) cloture to cut off debate and b) passage. Nonetheless, bill opponents should not forgive a vote to bring it back to the floor, I'm told. They're within a few votes of killing the deal before it comes back; why take the chance on a later vote?
2. The fact that senators are announcing how they will vote on a "procedural" vote is a huge sign of how much pressure they're feeling. For opponents, it's reason for very cautious optimism.
3. A loss tomorrow means there are still two more chances to kill the bill; still, a good opportunity will have been missed.
4. The cloture vote may come before, or after, consideration of certain amendments. Skeptics should not be all that impressed with amendments approved by Reid and Kennedy. Less likely than "poison pills" are "fig leaf" amendments that improve the bill in cosmetic ways, but don't significantly address the real problems with the bill.
06/25 11:52 AM
The List of Twelve [Jim Geraghty]
Around the Hill, Kirkorian's list is being cited as accurate and up to date:
The following 12 senators are leaning against the bill itself but so far are leaning toward the cloture motion — which means, in reality, that they would be helping pass the amnesty, because if the bill comes to a final vote, it will pass. These are the Senators whose decisions will likely determine whether the amnesty passes or not: Bond (R-Mo.), Bingaman (D-N.M.), Burr (R-N.C.), Boxer (D-Calif.), Cochran (R-Miss.), Conrad (D-N.D.), Ensign (R-Nev.), Levin (D-Mich.), Gregg (R-N.H.), Nelson (D-Neb.), Hatch (R-Utah), Webb (D-Va.).
Ahem. Phone numbers can be found here.
In related news, Rush Limbaugh just said that if he were running America, as Trent Lott suggested talk radio is, Lott would be in the House, not the Senate.
06/25 12:36 PM
>>A loss tomorrow means there are still two more chances to kill the bill; still, a good opportunity will have been missed.<<
What does he mean by “two more chances?”
- Another cloture vote to end debate (senate) and then the vote on the bill itself (senate)
- A vote on the vote itself (senate) and another vote in the House
This research is only about the FEDERAL programs.
The illegal aliens have already had a big impact on our local property taxes and state taxes...their millions in 'extended families' who will pour across the border will necessitate even MORE tax increases at the local and state level to provide essential services like schools, teachers, police, jails, guards, courts, fire EMT's etc. for them.
Senator Cornyn has always been solid on this, while Hutchison gave some indications that she was willing to go for the deal in which she would vote for cloture in return for getting her amendment considered. If she has now firmed up on the matter, she must have gotten the message.
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