Posted on 06/19/2007 6:52:38 AM PDT by Neville72
There’s change at the top in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson earning support from 28% of Likely Republican Primary Voters. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani attracts support from 27%. While Thompson’s one-point edge is statistically insignificant, it is the first time all year that anybody but Giuliani has been on top in Rasmussen Reports polling. A week ago, Thompson and Giuliani were tied at 24%.
It remains an open question as to how Thompson will hold up once he actually enters the campaign and has to compete directly with other candidates. To date, he retains the allure of the new kid in town while GOP voters already know the things they don’t like about the others. Still, Thompson’s rise to the top provides a telling measure of how the other GOP hopefuls have failed to capture the imagination of the party they hope to lead.
Once gain this week, Arizona Senator John McCain and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney are tied for a distant third. This week, both men attract 10% support. Last week, they were both at the 11% level of support. For McCain, this is a continuation of a downward trend. For Romney, it reflects a fairly steady position. Romney is doing well in selected state polls but has been unable to gain much traction and expand his support nationwide.
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Kansas Senator Sam Brownback are each the top choice for 2% of the likely voters.
The combined total for five other candidates in the race is just under 3%. Those candidates are Congressman Ron Paul, Congressman Tom Tancredo, former Governor Tommy Thompson, Congressman Duncan Hunter, and former Governor Jim Gilmore. Eighteen percent (18%) say they’re not sure how they will vote.
This is the first Rasmussen Reports poll to exclude former House Speaker Newt Gingrich as a candidate. Gingrich earned 7% support in last week’s polling but has recently made statements indicating he is not likely to enter the 2008 race as candidate.
Giuliani remains the most well-liked candidate in either party. He is viewed favorably by 82% of Republicans nationwide and unfavorably by 15%. Thompson, not as well known, is the only other candidate with so few Republicans holding an unfavorable opinion of him. The actor turned Senator turned actor again is viewed favorably by 59% of Republicans and unfavorably by 14%.
Among Republicans, Romney and McCain both have lower favorables and higher unfavorables than the frontrunners. For Romney, those GOP numbers are 56% favorable and 28% unfavorable. McCain, among the nation’s best known political figures, is viewed favorably by 55% of Republicans and unfavorably by 40%.
While Giuliani is well liked, only 21% of Republicans view him as politically conservative. Twice as many, 42%, believe that Thompson is politically conservative.
Rasmussen Reports releases updated polling data on the Republican nominating contest every Tuesday. Results for the Democrats are updated on Mondays. The current survey is based upon national telephone interviews with 618 Likely Republican Primary Voters conducted June 11-14, 2007. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. The Rasmussen Reports sample includes not only Republicans, but also independents who say they are likely to vote in a Republican Primary.
In some states, independent voters are allowed to participate in Republican primaries. In others, only Republicans can participate. Among Republicans only in the current poll, it’s Thompson 29% Giuliani 24% Romney 11% and McCain 10%.
McCain’s recent decline in the polls has been tied closely to his support for the unpopular immigration reform bill. A Rasmussen Reports analysis of what happened to the McCain campaign noted that the man once considered a maverick is now the candidate most closely aligned with President Bush on two hot-button issues—the War in Iraq and immigration. That linkage is problematic when just 27% of voters nationwide say the President is doing a good or excellent job handling the situation in Iraq and only 15% give him favorable reviews on the immigration issue.
Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates. Also regularly updated are favorability ratings for Members of Congress, Other Political Figures, and Journalists along with public attitudes towards Congress, the War on Terror, and other topics.
“I have been to Daily KOS. I read it every day.
Surprise surprise.”
I like to think that people on our side DO read lots of different angles. That I like to see what the other side is thinking isn’t a negative.
“And I find that the Left doesn’t have any more fear of Fred Thompson than they do of Rudy Giuliani.
Then, your reading comprehension skills are sorely lacking. “
If you are going to chastise me for reading Kos then presumably you don’t so how would you even know?
“Either that or you’re a campaign operative. Either way, you’re seriously in the minority on that. “
Nope - I am a TV Weatherman (and incidentally I think Gore is a fool but that’s for another day). Am I in the minority? Because aside from this one single poll, everything I’ve seen suggests Giuliani is the front-runner. Perhaps you are in the minority and need to branch out.
“I see someone that is wishy washy on abortion.
So, you prefer the all out pro-choice Rudy G, eh? That totally makes sense, considering you’re a Kos Kid. And Hannity didn’t have to save anything.”
You’re not getting it. I don’t like abortion but I’m not going to base my vote on it. I DO think that SOME ELEMENT of people in the GOP would base their vote on it. I think that Rudy’s abortion stance can be offset by the centrists he would attract. I think that Fred Thompson’s wishy-washiness may turn off those voters who think abortion is the most important issue. You DO believe that Thompson is more conservative than Giuliani, so what I’m saying is that Thompson won’t be able to make up for lost Christian Right voters by finding Centrists like Giuliani could...because after ‘06 they are more likely to vote for a Democrat.
Hannity did have to save him. He started to say something about not wanting to “criminalize” and that sets up a red flag for evangelicals.
“We’re not going to win in ‘08 unless we reach out to the center. I don’t necessarily like it but its true.”
I don’t like the amnesty bill and I want border enforcement before anything like that is even considered. But the media has successfully painted the GOP as anti-immigrant. And Duncan Hunter’s “We need to freeze LEGAL immigration” rhetoric does not help us. We need to expand the states in play. Thompson won’t do that. Do you honestly think he can win in any state that Bush did not in 2004, when the political winds were much more favorable than they are now? If you do then you are living in a dream world.
Sure - Rudy is to the left of me...but I agree with a lot of what he says aside from social issues, and he can WIN.
And don’t call me a Kos kid. I voted for Bush twice and have been posting here for 2 years. Just because I’m not jumping on the Fred bandwagon doesn’t make me less of a Republican.
I don’t think you’re a Kos Kid, but I do think you are missing something with Fred. He DOES appeal to the center, and I don’t think you realize that.
In fact, another Freeper pointed out to me that a DNC thread about Fred Thompson was pulled because self-proclaimed Reagan Democrats were saying they’d vote for Fred.
I think Fred’s centrist appeal is greater than Rudy’s and far greater than you realize.
YOU: The public as a whole is tired of the Southern act from the Republicans.
ME: Then why is he polling so well even before entering the race?
The PUBLIC AS A WHOLE includes the entire electorate. Thompson hasn’t beaten Hillary in a poll.
Good luck with your Rudy support. If he is the nominee, our vote will be split and Hillary will be elected. Until Rudy starts polling 20+ points ahead of Hillary, he’s WAY down in the polls to her, because that’s what the 3rd party challenger will grab at the polls.
You’re not getting what’s going on here. You are not even scratching the surface of analyzing this race or in investigating Fred Thompson.
If you don’t support him, fine. I really don’t care. But if you’re going to come here and tell us that we’re ‘crazy’ for supporting him, you are WAY the hell out of line. Especially if you haven’t done your research.
They didn’t pull it and HotAir was silly to do what they did.
http://www.democrats.org/a/2007/05/the_fred_thomps.php
They reopened the comments on it and it got 9 more comments from users for ‘cover’.
The first 20 comments were the ones that I was citing when I pointed people to that thread. The remaining 9 were added after HotAir blew up the link.
On what planet is it suggested that a guy who’s 5 points down 18 months before an election should be written off?
Thompson tied Giuliani for first last week and came in first in the Rasmussen poll, I think.
He went from coming in 3rd-5th to coming in 1st and 2nd in just a couple weeks.
I believe he's within 5% without even announcing his candidacy. So, again, how can you say the public 'as a whole' is tired of Southern candidates, and a Fred Thompson has no chance?
Well now they sound more like the Dems we know and love (to hate.)
No, it wasn’t Rasmussen, obviously. I will try to figure out which polls they were.
PSUAdam, NittanyLion? You'd think that you guys would get along better.
True. :)
The site should be commended though for leaving the post as it was and just turning on the comments.
HotAir should have been aware that they probably had such an anti-spam feature on the site. The point was that many of the Dems agreed with Fred, not that the DNC was trying to shut down debate.
*grin* I just don't want to see my alma mater given a bad name on here...
as a Pitt alum, i was getting a charge at you two going back and forth with those screen names. : )
Nice groundswell...... can it turn into a landslide?
Pitt eh?
I graduated from PSU in ‘03 with a degree in Meteorology. I loved Penn State. I miss it.
isn’t Joe Bastardi, the Fox News meteorologist, from the Penn State area too? who knew that PSU was full of weathermen!
Joe bastardi works for AccuWeather, a private forecasting company that supplies weather information to radio and television networks. I’ve seen him on Fox but I think it’s just when they interview him for severe weather stories. I don’t think he actually works FOR Fox but I could be wrong.
In other words, you want to win...and couldn’t care less how that happens.
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