Posted on 06/19/2007 6:52:38 AM PDT by Neville72
There’s change at the top in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson earning support from 28% of Likely Republican Primary Voters. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani attracts support from 27%. While Thompson’s one-point edge is statistically insignificant, it is the first time all year that anybody but Giuliani has been on top in Rasmussen Reports polling. A week ago, Thompson and Giuliani were tied at 24%.
It remains an open question as to how Thompson will hold up once he actually enters the campaign and has to compete directly with other candidates. To date, he retains the allure of the new kid in town while GOP voters already know the things they don’t like about the others. Still, Thompson’s rise to the top provides a telling measure of how the other GOP hopefuls have failed to capture the imagination of the party they hope to lead.
Once gain this week, Arizona Senator John McCain and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney are tied for a distant third. This week, both men attract 10% support. Last week, they were both at the 11% level of support. For McCain, this is a continuation of a downward trend. For Romney, it reflects a fairly steady position. Romney is doing well in selected state polls but has been unable to gain much traction and expand his support nationwide.
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Kansas Senator Sam Brownback are each the top choice for 2% of the likely voters.
The combined total for five other candidates in the race is just under 3%. Those candidates are Congressman Ron Paul, Congressman Tom Tancredo, former Governor Tommy Thompson, Congressman Duncan Hunter, and former Governor Jim Gilmore. Eighteen percent (18%) say they’re not sure how they will vote.
This is the first Rasmussen Reports poll to exclude former House Speaker Newt Gingrich as a candidate. Gingrich earned 7% support in last week’s polling but has recently made statements indicating he is not likely to enter the 2008 race as candidate.
Giuliani remains the most well-liked candidate in either party. He is viewed favorably by 82% of Republicans nationwide and unfavorably by 15%. Thompson, not as well known, is the only other candidate with so few Republicans holding an unfavorable opinion of him. The actor turned Senator turned actor again is viewed favorably by 59% of Republicans and unfavorably by 14%.
Among Republicans, Romney and McCain both have lower favorables and higher unfavorables than the frontrunners. For Romney, those GOP numbers are 56% favorable and 28% unfavorable. McCain, among the nation’s best known political figures, is viewed favorably by 55% of Republicans and unfavorably by 40%.
While Giuliani is well liked, only 21% of Republicans view him as politically conservative. Twice as many, 42%, believe that Thompson is politically conservative.
Rasmussen Reports releases updated polling data on the Republican nominating contest every Tuesday. Results for the Democrats are updated on Mondays. The current survey is based upon national telephone interviews with 618 Likely Republican Primary Voters conducted June 11-14, 2007. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. The Rasmussen Reports sample includes not only Republicans, but also independents who say they are likely to vote in a Republican Primary.
In some states, independent voters are allowed to participate in Republican primaries. In others, only Republicans can participate. Among Republicans only in the current poll, it’s Thompson 29% Giuliani 24% Romney 11% and McCain 10%.
McCain’s recent decline in the polls has been tied closely to his support for the unpopular immigration reform bill. A Rasmussen Reports analysis of what happened to the McCain campaign noted that the man once considered a maverick is now the candidate most closely aligned with President Bush on two hot-button issues—the War in Iraq and immigration. That linkage is problematic when just 27% of voters nationwide say the President is doing a good or excellent job handling the situation in Iraq and only 15% give him favorable reviews on the immigration issue.
Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates. Also regularly updated are favorability ratings for Members of Congress, Other Political Figures, and Journalists along with public attitudes towards Congress, the War on Terror, and other topics.
That's one of my favs.
McCain is crashing. Hard. Guiliani will have a softer landing from the Rockefeller crowd who hate us social conservatives. Romney is a question mark... one would think that he'd move up, but he seems pretty stagnant.
WOOHOOOOOOOO!!!! RUN, FRED, RUN!!!!
NOW IS THE TIME!!!! :-)
You guys are all crazy. The man looks tired and old and sounds too much like Bush. Independent voters are going to vote for Democrats in droves if Thompson is our nominee. We need to get off the southern good-ol’ boy network if we want to win. Seriously.
No, he sounds more like Reagan. I don't hear Bush saying that the immigration bill is amnnesty. I don't hear Bush telling Calderon off. I don't see Bush telling off Michael Moore.
Okay, be the first to say it. LOL!
If he sounds like Reagan then he sounds like an old, tired version of Reagan. I don’t like the amnesty bill any more than you do but the fact is that Thompson looks and sounds old and washed up. His speeches, or at least the ones he doesn’t read off a prompter or script, are dull and droning. It might not sound nice but it’s true. A slow southern style is not going to cut it this year after eight years of Bush. A vote for Thompson in the primary is a defensive vote. If the party goes with this man we have no opportunity to turn any blue states red in the general election and all the reason to believe we will lose ground. The public as a whole is tired of the Southern act from the Republicans.
And what magic candidate do you support?
-The cross dressing statist liberal?
-The slick used-car salesman from Massachusetts?
-The mentally disturbed old guy from Arizona?
-The hopelessly unelectable border hawk from Colorado?
-The hopelessly unelectable border hawk from California?
-The certifiably insane, pseudo libertarian cut and runner M.D. from Texas?
Which speeches would those be?
that is an excellent summary, i look forward to PSUadam’s response. we can vote for whomever we choose, but we also must choose from those who are running.
Which is why he gets paid big bucks as a public speaker, of course.
I think he is saying he would rather have an effeminate, lisping, cross-dressing nominee. One who would pale to the masculine features of Hillary Clinton.
Then why is he polling so well even before entering the race?
No candidate is perfect. Quite right. I’d be happy to support Giuliani. You guys need to stop drinking the kool-aid. A cross-dresser? Are you serious? It was a joke. Bush has an approval of about 30 percent and you guys want to go with a guy that is just like him. I’d rather take half a loaf. And I’m glad you brought up Hillary Clinton because that’s exactly who will be president if the Republicans nominate Thompson. Taft screwed us in Ohio. It’s going to go to the Democrats. How are we going to make that up? Thompson sure as hell won’t take any states into our column from the Northeast. Hillary may yet be able to pick up Arkansas.
And laugh all you want but the joke is going to be on all of us if we’re not smart about who we choose to go into battle with the Clintons.
No candidate is perfect. Quite right. I’d be happy to support Giuliani. You guys need to stop drinking the kool-aid. A cross-dresser? Are you serious? It was a joke. Bush has an approval of about 30 percent and you guys want to go with a guy that is just like him. I’d rather take half a loaf. And I’m glad you brought up Hillary Clinton because that’s exactly who will be president if the Republicans nominate Thompson. Taft screwed us in Ohio. It’s going to go to the Democrats. How are we going to make that up? Thompson sure as hell won’t take any states into our column from the Northeast. Hillary may yet be able to pick up Arkansas.
And laugh all you want but the joke is going to be on all of us if we’re not smart about who we choose to go into battle with the Clintons.
“The public as a whole is tired of the Southern act from the Republicans.”
How well is he polling against the Democrats? Answer: Not very.
Thompson isn’t “just like Bush.”
In fact, from the Dems’ perspective, the candidate most often compared to Bush is Giuliani. I’ve been over to enemy territory.
They think Giuliani is Bush II. Fred? They FEAR him.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.