Posted on 06/16/2007 12:58:10 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
The mullahcracy in Iran has apparently unleashed its latent paranoia, resulting in a crackdown on dissent not seen since the 1979 Revolution. The Iranian government has moved to quell academic debate, silence citizen groups, purge their internal security systems, and generally tighten the screws on the Iranian people:
Iran is in the midst of a sweeping crackdown that both Iranians and U.S. analysts compare to a cultural revolution in its attempt to steer the oil-rich theocracy back to the rigid strictures of the 1979 revolution.
The recent detentions of Iranian American dual nationals are only a small part of a campaign that includes arrests, interrogations, intimidation and harassment of thousands of Iranians as well as purges of academics and new censorship codes for the media. Hundreds of Iranians have been detained and interrogated, including a top Iranian official, according to Iranian and international human rights groups. ...
The widespread purges and arrests are expected to have an impact on parliamentary elections next year and the presidential contest in 2009, either discouraging or preventing reformers from running against the current crop of hard-liners who dominate all branches of government, Iranian and U.S. analysts say. The elections are one of several motives behind the crackdowns, they add.
Public signs of discontent -- such as students booing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on a campus last December, teacher protests in March over low wages and workers demonstrating on May Day -- are also behind the detentions, according to Iranian sources.
"The current crackdown is a way to instill fear in the population in order to discourage them from future political agitation as the economic situation begins to deteriorate," said Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
(Excerpt) Read more at captainsquartersblog.com ...
Why should they turn?
How about dignity pride honor self respect.... add ‘em on to that list ....
Whatever we're spending, double it!
I seldom respond to your pings, but I naver fail to make a point of reading them. Always most interesting, insightful..........and possibly inciteful, as they should be.
Thanks for keeping me on your “ping list”.
God Bless the truly decent - and there are many - people of Iran who at the end of this thing will be shouting the word, “America!” for an entirely different reason than others, and... even they had of late.
inciteful is perceptive of you. I report but you decide :-))
cheers
“Regular army” has been disarmed for the most part by the vastly better equipped and organized paramoilitary IRGC (Revolutionary Guard) whose commanders, colleagues of ahmadiNutjob, hold almost every iportant post in the country down to mid-level ranks.
The IRGC does not trust the regular forces whose allegiance is nore to the old guard Mullahs not the suicidal hojateih ones in charge right now.
There are close to 400,000 IRGC and Suppression Bassiji forrces members. For anything serious to ahppen in Iran these would habe to be comber out of existence and then the peoplel would rise up.
Those are YOUR mindsets, without mnuch room in the battered, smashed, crushed psyche of the oppressed Iranains who are trying not to starve.Work but as often as not do not get paid for months at a time and wonder howthey will feed their families.
short of joining the huge numbers delving into trash dumpos.
And in fear of joining the HALF MILLION homeless children living in the streets just in Tehran. And the tens of thousands of women also forced to live on the streets as they can neither fin dwork, have been thrown out by irate husbans to fend for theselves and have no social safety network like we do in the West.
Easy to offer high sounding attributes when you do not face daily hunger, misery and stress that to a degree not even our troops face. Or if they do they have some training and there is an evac copter to be found with some med attention.
I understand your high minded appproach but you are not even on the same planet as these people.
Not because they did not once have honor and a sense of pride but because their living daylights have been knocked systematically out of them for the last 25 years.
I don’t know how tough you are but I wonder if you could take that and still be who you are today. I doubt if I could and I have been there and done that and barely survived.
Easy to to quarterback when you are not being burned up in the fire. Emotional and often real flames of torture.
cheers,
This error of equating what goes on in your mind within your environment (even in Iraq) does not tally with reality of the mindsets and psyche of those who have no energy or reserve left for high falluting
There was a former Iranian judge and author, a woman, now living in exile, whose name I forget, who wrote in an article I read shortly after the US Military occupied Bagdad.
In the article, she wrote about being in a coffee shop in Tehran watching the images on the television of American marines patrolling the streets of Bagdad.
She wrote of watching women, unaccompanied by male relatives, clad in western attire, walking by the Marines, who bowed respectfully or tipped their helmets.
She wrote that she wished that she could see American Marines on the streets of Tehran.
bttt
Thank you for the ping to this very well written and I believe very accurate analysis of the Iranian situation on the ground.
It will probably need to get a lot worse before a solution is possible. How much worse? Bad enough that 80% or more of the people are fed up with Islam entirely, and given an opportunity would kill every cleric and burn all the Qurans in a huge bonfire. And for decades afterward, anybody coming into the country spouting Da'wa (call to Islam) would be killed
Anything less than that, and you would be trading one Islamic republic for another within a few years
and you would be trading one Islamic republic for another within a few years
Understand your comments regarding regular army verse the RG. This country is in lock down no different then what the Soviets,Chinese,NK have/had. Unlike Hollywood scripts, one simply does not march in and put a bullet into a dictators head and solve the problem that exists in Iran. The Mullahs and their adherants are simply to well established.
AntiMullah (Alan and I) are actually working on something like that. By broadcasting from a Zoroastrian Internet TV that we hope will soon go to satellite again, we are:
1. Aiming the overthrow the Mullahs through women.
2. Promoting pre-Islamic conditions when men and women had equality and there were two women who became Empresses / Queens and ruled the nation.
Part of this is to remove Islam as part of any Constitutions. And basically adopt the Zorostrian three tenets (not the religion) of “Good Thoughts”, “Good Words”, “Good Deeds” as the national spiritual philosophy.
And teach voluntary religion in schools as an extra-curricular course. Attendance in multi-religion classes not obligatory but earning points toward graduations (at all levels).
Hoped for result is the dilution of Islam to where by comparison based on knowledge it no longers holds much specific or obligatory attraction.
However, there would be total freedom to practice what you want - in private life.
Very premature, as you may say, but our tiny think tank (we are after all experts to a great degree) believes we need to sort out ways and means now and create a template or several, on which to gradually launch an overthrow and try to channel the chaos that ensues.
As you say, once freed by “eradication” of the Revolutionary Guard military capabilites, the people will jump in.
So will the MEK, so will Putin, so will China, so will a gaggle of idealogues, all at odds with each other with mostly Socialist philosophies and external political support.
And external Al Qaeda type of terrorism.
And greedy business and oil conglomerates.
The late Shah once said that his having to deal with a situation somewhat similar to this in those days deserved an Oscar for acting far beyond roles of those in movies. He had to juggle a myriad conflicting imperatives and conflicting values and try to stay in place. And alive. And lead the country into a modern age.
Anyway, if anyone has suggestions along these lines, please Email us at AntiMullah “antimullah@hotmail.com” since we are open to learn from others, too, not just our own in depth practical experience.
Basic aim, start a new revolution via women.
Simplistically, it worked against us, we can make it work for us. And try to arrange to minimize the ensuing chaos without becoming suppressors and murderers ourselves.
Beyond the point of “Normal”, short-term, post-revolution law and order. Martial law etc.
Keep in mind that “democracy” that we believe in here in the USA is already somewhat different from democracy even in Europe and not necessarily the best template for a Middle East country.
For example, the total gridlock and hatred that has appeared in our own Congress and Senate, which prevents what’s good for our nation from being legislated was also faced by the late Shah.
There were two main political parties: Iran Novin (which won elections for 13-years under Premier Hoveyda). The opposition Mardom party, consisting of some very capable, educated people was always the minority opposition and as such they could never fill top govt. positions.
Needing far more good “managers” than were available, the late Shah finally dissolved the two parties, created a Rastakhiz party and designated it to have a left wing and a right wing of people formerly in Novin and Mardom.
Minorities like Christians, Jews, Zoroastrians, Assyrians. Armenians etc., did however have seats reserved for them in parliament and senate. Not perfect but it was working.
Except for the banned Tudeh (Communist) party constantly used by the Soviets to try to overthrow the monarchy and take over the country to reach the warm waters of the Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf.
Thus he could now use every available person in the country to help run it. Not OUR form of democracy and not something we could put in place without the Shah’s type of power.
Democracy in Iran (and what should perhaps have been considered in Iraq) does not need to be a direct prorated representation at the outset. As is ours.
Remember the political sophistication of the Iranian populace to ours or that of Europe is so different as to be skewed beyond practical implementation of what WE call democracy.
This comment would be met with loud protest and derision from the more educated Iranians living abroad, who also judge everyone according to themselves, not according to a less pleasant reality. And perhaps even over-estimating their own prowess.
Thus you have to create a tailor made “semi-democracy” at the outset, create a fairly decent Constitution, based on pragmatic rather than idealistic concepts and build in the ability to make Amendments as we have in the USA.
Anyway, do please send us suggestions based on a practical, pragmatic mindset not simply that of forcing our version onto people who cannot carry it out even if it appeals to some of them.They are mostly under 30-years old - 65% of them - so highly idealistic but not full of real experience of life, government or the wrold at large to temper the idealism.
I thoroughly admire and support your hard work. Keep it up and THANK YOU from a grateful American. This takes a lot of courage and commitment and you are demonstrating that in spades.
Good post blam.
I agree but am not sure ours will nor should be peaceful.
Here we go again.....
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