Replies

Interesting take.

Conservatives are playing a game of chicken with GOP leadership. They think they outnumber the potential number of Dem voters that would vote for Rudy, thereby dealing a loss to Repub hopes in 2008.
***Socons have history on their side. Also, your analysis completely overlooks the role of the MSM. The media will turn on rudy the moment he accepts the nomination and all those potential dem voters will go runnin’ back to mama. No one will ever really know if your scenario played out because of other factors in the race. What the GOP needs is a candidate who doesn’t rely on the MSM to be anything other than what it is, a bunch of lazy lefties.

We shall see - personally, I think the smart money is on Rudy (just as it was on Arnie). The GOP will move to the left and a separate conservative movement will have to be established to continue the fight.
***That “smart money” approach is funny. Example: Rudy has pulled in say, $10M and Fred about $3M and maybe both McCain & Romney $5M apiece. That means that more “smart money” would have gone to the losers than the winner, no matter who wins. It’s just another way of trying to position a candidate in a positive light.

I think it is smart of JR to anticipate this re-alignment and establish FR as the pre-imminent forum for this movement.
***I think you’re dead wrong on that one. If anything, JimRob is trying to forestall a split in the GOP. And for that, I think he’s smart. Free Republic is already the pre-eminent forum for conservatives, he doesn’t need to position himself for a 3rd party movement.

First off, thank you for the rationale reply. For some reason no one wants to discuss the 'inside baseball' aspects - it's all emotion and reaction.

The whole uproar about Rudy is nothing more than a game of chicken: are there more than enough centrist Democrats to offset lost SoCon voters?

People & organizations with a lot more at stake than participating in an interesting discussion have already signaled their moves.

If it weren't for the front loaded primaries occurring in Feb, the traditional grass roots approach of vetting nominees would probably still be valid.

However, political realities indicate that the big Blue states will be determining the GOP nominee in a single day. Given this scenario, it's not hard to anticipate that Rudy will simply replicate Arnie's appeal by taking it nationwide.