The whole uproar about Rudy is nothing more than a game of chicken: are there more than enough centrist Democrats to offset lost SoCon voters?
People & organizations with a lot more at stake than participating in an interesting discussion have already signaled their moves.
If it weren't for the front loaded primaries occurring in Feb, the traditional grass roots approach of vetting nominees would probably still be valid.
However, political realities indicate that the big Blue states will be determining the GOP nominee in a single day. Given this scenario, it's not hard to anticipate that Rudy will simply replicate Arnie's appeal by taking it nationwide.
There are other dynamics that make it even more explosive, such as the Internet and Youtube. One Macaca Gaffe could cost a frontrunner his entire campaign, just ask Mr. Dean. And again, Mr. Dean is indicative of the fast-paced exposure and ability to raise money through nontraditional channels.
One reason candidates flipflop is so they can figure out what’s important to the electorate and then jump in with both feet. That’s why JFKerry was losing to Dean in one month and was gaining fast 2 months later because the DNC noticed that the anti-war base was mobilized and took advantage of it. But the undercurrents that are important in this election cycle are WOT, jobs, immigration, security and what to do about Iraq. Lotsa soccermoms couldn’t vote GWB out of office so they voted in cut&run congresscritters to get their boys back home. The candidate who strikes the right chord on these issues will score big in the debates and find a downhill path to the presidency. I personally think that Duncan Hunter has it right on all of these issues and he doesn’t have to “moderate” his views one iota, he can be real about it when other candidates flipflop around like fish. The american electorate will be able to detect such phoniness when it is so well contrasted by someone so real.
The frontloading of the primaries will have one other bottlenecking effect we have not seen to date. Most voters are not all that interested in the campaigns just yet, and won’t be until the debates and the primaries come up. At that time, there will be a HUGE information push like we’ve never seen before. Only the Internet can handle that much bandwidth bottleneck, and we will see places like Free Republic hopping like mad with millions of hits daily. The MSM won’t be able to keep up. The result could be a candidate that flies below radar and only needs a bit of a push for more name recognition. At that point, even negative publicity helps such a candidate — and the polls will be so far off that they’ll be meaningless. As examples I would cite Tim Walberg, Bill Sali, Chenowyth. There may be other examples. It’s a wide open race!
No. The fact is that the greatest "issue" difference between Rudy and Hillary/Obama lies in support for the WOT. The typical "centrist Dem" is going to side with the mainstream Dems on this, so no soup for Rudy. Meanwhile that very agreement between Rudy and the Dems on the social agenda will sink him with SoCons.
What "centrist Dem" group do you anticipate Rudy will pull? Hard core Union? Farm subsidy dems? Southern traditional yankee haters? American Idol watchers?
If it weren't for the front loaded primaries occurring in Feb, the traditional grass roots approach of vetting nominees would probably still be valid.
Which is why the fight's getting bloody now, 10 months out from that. Frankly, I think it's going to depend much more on who the Dems are likely to nominate. If, 8 months hence, Hillary has imploded, Obama has gotten spanked for inexperience, and the Dems are pushing a current Dark Horse like Richardson, then the Fear Factor support for Rudy will tank.