Posted on 04/12/2007 7:49:02 PM PDT by Cincinna
After a quarter-century of drift Nicolas Sarkozy offers the best hope of reform
NO FRENCH presidential election in 50 years has looked as unpredictable as this year's, the first round of which takes place on April 22nd. This is so even though the leader in every opinion poll so far has been Nicolas Sarkozy, the candidate of the ruling centre-right UMP party. His support may be overestimated, just as that of the far-right Jean-Marie Le Pen may be underestimated. The rise of the centrist François Bayrou, who at one point almost overtook the Socialist Ségolène Royal, has muddied the electoral arithmetic. And with only ten days to go, more than two in five voters are undecided.
This election matters. France is the euro zone's second-biggest member and home to ten of Europe's 50 biggest companies. But it is deeply troubled. It has the slowest-growing large economy in Europe, a state that soaks up half of GDP, the fastest-rising public debt in western Europe over the past ten years and, above all, entrenched high unemployment. Over the past 25 years French GDP per person has declined from seventh-highest in the world to 17th. The smouldering mood of the suburbs (banlieues), home to many jobless youths from ethnic minorities, blazed into riots in 2005 and lay behind new trouble that flared recently at a Paris railway station. The disenchantment of voters is reflected not only in opinion polls but also in their rejection of the European Union constitution in 2005. Tellingly, they have not re-elected an incumbent government for a quarter-century.
The most urgent cure for all these ills is to get the economy growing faster. That requires radical liberalisation of labour and product markets, more competition and less protection, lower taxes and cuts in public spending, plus a shake-up of the coddled public services. None of these things was seriously tackled in the past 26 years, under the presidencies of François Mitterrand, from the left, and Jacques Chirac, from the right. This was a time when other European countries, such as Britain, Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland and the Nordics, transformed themselves for the better, and still largely retained their cherished social models and welfare systems. Here lies the biggest challenge for the next French president.
Worst, worse, bad How do the candidates measure up? Only three of the 12 are serious runners (see article). A fourth who may shape the outcome is Mr Le Pen, the veteran leader of the racist National Front, who shamed France by edging past the Socialist candidate into the run-off against Mr Chirac in 2002. Mr Le Pen's poll numbers are better now than they were at the equivalent stage then. It is vital for France and its image that Mr Le Pen be kept out of the second round this time.
Ms Royal would be an asset in the second round, turning it into a satisfyingly direct left-right contest. She has other attractions: the first woman to be a serious contender, the boldness to push past the elephants in her party to win the nomination, a willingness to break with Socialist taboos by praising Britain's Tony Blair and criticising the French state's imposition of a maximum 35-hour working week. Unfortunately her policies are woolly even by modern standards. And in economics, she stands squarely behind all the old left-wing shibboleths: state intervention, rigid labour protection and high taxes.
On the face of it, the centrist Mr Bayrou is more promising. His pledge to curb the public debt is more credible than Ms Royal's and even Mr Sarkozy's. But he has failed to promote a free-market agenda—he is distressingly fond of farm subsidies and state intervention. Nor is it clear how he would form a government: his centrist party is tiny, and his vague musings of drawing in like-minded leaders from left and right smack of the lowest common denominator.
Faute de mieux Which leaves Mr Sarkozy as the best of the bunch. Unlike the others, and despite his long service as a minister under Mr Chirac, he makes no bones of admitting that France needs radical change. He is an outsider, born to an aristocratic Hungarian émigré father; he openly admires America; he is enthusiastic about the economic renaissance of Britain. He plans an early legislative blitz to take on hitherto untouchable issues such as labour-market liberalisation, cutting corporate and income taxes and trimming public-sector pensions.
But there are two doubts about Mr Sarkozy. As he showed in his brief stint as finance minister, he has most of the traditional French politician's meddlesome economic instincts, favouring a strong industrial policy, protected national champions and even interfering in supermarket prices. Recently he has taken to heaping blame on the European Central Bank for France's self-inflicted failings.
Such economic populism may merely be a ploy to win over an electorate that has long been averse to the market. But in Mr Sarkozy it is yoked to a second unattractive streak: a form of nativism, reflected in his harsh comments about immigrants and national identity. His supporters say he must tack right to lure voters from Mr Le Pen. But he is now so unpopular in the banlieues that—unlike Mr Le Pen—he has barely set foot in them during the campaign. As interior minister, he took great interest in how to improve the lives of French Muslims, but he has dropped all such talk as a candidate.
This may also explain the biggest defect in Mr Sarkozy's foreign policy: his fierce hostility to letting Turkey join the EU. Ms Royal has bravely supported the principle of Turkish membership. But this is unlikely to be put to the test for at least a decade, and on other EU issues, such as the future of the constitution, Mr Sarkozy has a more sensible, pragmatic approach than either of his main rivals. He is also the most likely candidate to repair France's tattered relations with America.
On the evidence of his career and his campaign, Mr Sarkozy is less a principled liberal than a brutal pragmatist. Yet he is the only candidate brave enough to advocate the “rupture” with its past that France needs after so many gloomy years. It has been said that France advances by revolution from time to time but seldom, if ever, manages to reform. Mr Sarkozy offers at least a chance of proving this aphorism wrong.
The prestigious British journal The Economist has endorsed UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy for the presidency of France. Although it acknowledges that Sarkozy has several weaknesses, notably recent statements reflecting economic populism, his nativism on immigration and national identity, and perhaps most importantly for a globally oriented readership, "his fierce hostility to letting Turkey join the EU," The Economist concludes that Sarkozy offers France "the best hope of reform."
The two most reform-minded big candidates in the election are Nicolas Sarkozy and Jean-Marie Le Pen.
Obviously their ideas of “reform” are a bit different.
It will be interesting to see how well Le Pen polls. A little bird tells me that people are absolutely fed up with the criminality and the rioting and the property damage, moreso than ever before.
I will not be a bit surprised to see a runoff between Sarkozy and Le Pen.
Please let me know if you want to be on or off teh FRENCH ELECTION (((PING))) LIST
Le Pen is hardly a reformer. His economic and social ideas are totally retrograde. He is a man of the past, while Sarko is the man of the present and future.
There was a policeman murdered in Paris yesterday, at an amusement park. “Yoots” again. People are totally fed up with crime and rampant violence.
(An inside joke)
I did not hear about the policeman.
Not just beaten up, outright killed?
It is time.
Sarkozy v. Le Pen in the runoff.
“Although it acknowledges that Sarkozy has several weaknesses, notably recent statements reflecting economic populism, his nativism on immigration and national identity,..”
LOL, those aren’t weaknesses, they are merely deviations from the Economists’ own Globalist shibboleths (all while the Economist correctly diagnoses the rest of France’s ills).
“Sarkozy offers France “the best hope of reform.” “
Thin hopes, France needs a revolution not an evolution, but I’ll take a leader who at least doesnt make America-bashing part of his rhetoric.
The murder was reported in Gallia Watch and Vox Galliae. There has been no mention in le Figaro or le Monde that I can see.
Policeman Murdered in Paris
A policeman was killed Monday night during a fight at a theme park in Paris. La Croix has the AFP report:
A policeman was killed by the arm of a roller coaster gondola at the Foire du Trône theme park in Paris (12th arrondissement), when he intervened in a fight, in circumstances that are still unclear.
One police source had announced that the policeman, 31 years old, had been deliberately pushed under the car of the Maxximum roller coaster, adding that a second policeman was also pushed , but was “pulled out just in time by a park employee.” (...)
The policeman intervened in a fight between three persons, according to the Prefect of police, and was accidentally struck full force in the face by the moving arm of the car, and died instantly. The Prefect later maintained that “the cause of death had not been established.”
Interior Minister François Baroin arrived on the scene at 11:30 p.m. (...)
In front of the Maxximum, where visitors who take a ride are promised “a revolutionary sensation” when, having ascended 60 meters, they dive down into a void at high speed, the manager of the attraction , Jack Bazin, told Agence France Press (AFP) that according to his workers who had witnessed the scene, “a gang of 15 young people” had gone up to the loading platform.
Then, “there was a fight and an officer was pushed,” and was struck by the arm of the car. “I don’t know who pushed him.”
“The fact is that our colleague intervened in a fight (...) At the Trône du Foire fights are common. And for months now our union has been repeating that there are too many wounded among our ranks,” denounced Luc Poignant representative of police union SGP-FO in Paris. (...)
On the scene, a little past 10:30 p.m. the crowd was still dense and the tension palpable. “Things are heating up all over,” said one officer to another, while the park’s organizers requested over loud-speakers that visitors leave. The Foire closes at midnight on weekdays because of the number of fights.
Marcel Campion, a representative of fair ground operators spoke of an “assassination”, and felt that the Foire du Trône which opened its doors earlier this month could not be blamed. Then, in a more cautious communiqué, he demanded an increase in police presence. (...)
If you know French, you may be interested in this brief video where Marcel Campion, representative of theme park employees, explains that he arrived on the scene shortly after the event and ascertained that it was a gang of black kids who pushed the policeman. He says it was bound to happen because these gangs are everywhere and no one is there to stop them.
Vox Galliae (which also shows the video) points out that the AFP report cited above omitted the full text of Campion’s declarations.
Jean-Marie Le Pen made these comments as quoted by Vox Galliae:
“It is ridiculous to imagine that one can hide the truth about the murder of Officer Caron by a gang of ethnic thugs. The French people are aware of the rise in violent crime of all types, especially those directed at the police.
“The presidential campaign must not be a time to hide problems, but to face them squarely, so that the citizens can determine the candidate most likely to confront them.”
Finally, as reported by Blog Choc, two witnesses have confirmed that the policeman was indeed pushed to the ground and beaten when he tried to stop a gang from getting on the ride without a ticket. He tried to lift himself from the ground and was fatally struck and tossed about by the arm of the car.
Personally, I hope the run-off is Sarko v. Royal. A Sarko v.le Pen runoff would give pretty much the same results as 1992. Chirac won 80-20, but it wasn’t a vote for anything, just against le Pen.
How much responsibility does the Parisian Mayor have with respect to law enforcement (as opposed to the President) ? I know Bertrand Delanoë is a gay Socialist. It seems like he hasn’t been doing a damn thing about the problems going on in his city.
Gotta be a little picky here. The polls are dealing in a couple or a few percentage points.
The CIA World Factbook has the< GDP (official exchange rate):
UK $2.341 trillion (2006 est.)
France $2.154 (2006 est.)
yitbos
On the contrary, this is the best reason to vote for Sarkozy. Go Sarko!
“He says it was bound to happen because these gangs are everywhere and no one is there to stop them.”
That is the problem.
“Jean-Marie Le Pen made these comments as quoted by Vox Galliae:
‘It is ridiculous to imagine that one can hide the truth about the murder of Officer Caron by a gang of ethnic thugs. The French people are aware of the rise in violent crime of all types, especially those directed at the police.’”
Le Pen has stated the truth, and the obvious. What he is talking about is what will decide this election, and why I believe it could end up being another runoff between Le Pen and the UMP candidate. If it is, Le Pen will do better this time. Sarkozy will win, of course.
Sarkozy appartient à la partie du gouvernement incombant, non ?
le yitbos
Always Paris. What's happening outside that metro area?
yitbos
I remember you support Bayrou, but do you think a Sarkozy-Le Pen runoff is a possibility? :Le Pen wound up in the runoff against Chirac, with Le Pen having pushed the socialist candidate right out, so I guess it’s possible. And I’m not too sure I believe poll numbers myself... :’)
The mayor of Paris has almost no power, certainly no police or law enforcement function. That is a function of the state.
Exactly. Chirac was elected in 1995,and re-elected in 2002.
Mitterand was elected in 1981, and re-elected in 1988. I don’t know where people come up with these numbers.
Ils se disent n’importe quoi!
Evidently.
More to the point. I am supposing there is proportionate party representation in the Frence Parliament, or whatever they call it. Has there ever been a president in the 5th Republic that has had an outright majority in the legislative body?
le yitbos
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