Posted on 01/03/2007 1:15:05 AM PST by rmlew
“It is said of all great matters under Heaven: What has been long divided must unite, what has been long united must divide.”
—Opening words of The Three Kingdoms Romance, a classic Chinese historical novel by Luo Guanzhong.
The beginning of a new year naturally turns one’s thoughts in a numerical direction. Furthermore, as we look forward to 2007, our imagination is liable to overshoot and find itself contemplating the more distant future: the next fifteen years for example. Why fifteen? Permit me to explain.
* * * * * * *
The ideas I am going to put forward here came about, as ideas often do, from the conjunction of two apparently unconnected events.
Event number one occurred as I was moving a pile of books from one inaccessible place in my attic to another. I turned up an old paperback titled Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984? This book was a collection of essays by the Brezhnev-era Soviet dissident Andrei Amalrik, the lead-off essay giving the book its title. That essay was written in 1969, so Amalrik was looking fifteen years ahead.
Amalrik’s essay makes dull reading now. He speaks at length of the social stresses in late-Soviet society, and predicts a war with China—a war which, of course, never happened. He was only seven years out in his prediction, though, which is pretty darn good as political prognostications go. And the essay did remind me what a great surprise the collapse of the USSR was to a lot of people, including a lot of high-paid experts. Walter Laqueur points out, in his book on the Soviet Union, that the U.S. government and all its agencies, including the CIA, over-estimated Soviet economic strength to the very end, in some cases by a factor of ten times.
I got to wondering whether some forecast as gloomy as Amalrik’s could be made for the present-day USA. If, following Amalrik’s example, we try to look forward 15 years, to 2022, what, if anything, can we see? There are of course many futures; but some are more probable than others. Are there any probable futures in which the USA has ceased to exist in 2022?
Watergate was a cakewalk compared to the Clinton regime. Media hysterics made a mountain out of a molehill. The news media ran interference for Clinton.
ping
Hear, hear!
I agree and feel the report of our demise is being greatly exaggerated!
Prove that God wills the United States to last much longer.
you know what i think. the FIRST indication is when "Le Republique de Quebecois" is formed from the current province of Quebec.
free dixie,sw
I can't even offer a good explanation to my kids why we're headed in the direction we are. I'm not sure I even recognize this country anymore. One reason - no habla espanol.
Prove that God wills the United States to last much longer.
I don't have to prove because I have faith and trust in God. I did not know you were an athiest. Sorry!
Duncan Hunter is the candidate to go with if you want to at least have a fight for it in the next election.
The 'redefined' American is a thing of the past. Earth Citizenship is an ideal fast becoming popular.
The absolute and relative number of people espousing that viewpoint will drop dramatically when the first Iranian/North Korean/Al Qaida nukes go off in big cities. I'm certainly not hoping for this - even if it means conservative dominance for 100 years - but I think that it'll happen before long. I pray that I'm wrong about that.
I'm not an atheist. I just don't know what God is thinking. This Nation has, by in large, turned from God. Historically speaking, this is not how a nation gains favor from God.
The only behavioral increases I see through the years indicate that the American people will continue to reject God and the Founding Principles. This Nation will not endure as we know it unless these trends are reversed. I don't see this happening until the majority returns to the original foundations.
Thanks for ping.
The States will survive but they won't be United. Two downers,
more allegiance to foreign interests than to America and money controls Washington.
An interesting article. If the USA is going to come apart it's not going to happen with a wimper, but rather with a BANG! CWII Ping.
Read the article, all 14 pages, and found it very interesting. He hits on the major fault lines in the US, and recognizes that historically countries with those problems do not remain unified.
We are in much the same position that the later Roman Empire was. In short, we are not longer united culturally.
Good article. Rising standards of living tie America together. If the economy seriously jams or sputters or dives, watch out.
Our political system has shown a resiliency that others haven't so tyranny isn't to be expected here if things go wrong. But we could easily break up into competing -- even warring -- factions.
Interesting piece.
I really don't like the idea of this happening in my lifetime (I'm in my early 30s).
All I know is that the longer we are divided, the closer we get to an event where we won't be able to live side by side in our current form. I hope we can find solutions to our problems; however, how do you reconcile secularism vs having religious values? It's harder and harder all the time considering the extremes that we've gotten to in our public discourse....you can't kinda sorta be for killing babies - either you are or you aren't. (For example)
The economy WILL fail, in a big, BIG way!
The constant devaluation of the dollar - thanks to the Fed - and the recent trend for the Chinese to stop supporting the dollar world-wide will ultimately lead to a HUGE crash that will make the original Depression seem like nirvana.
Ultimately, the US will fail for either these reasons OR the unwillingness to stop the illegal hordes working on establishing Azetlan. But it WILL happen; probably within the next 30 years.
And personally, we may find that it is NOT a bad thing.
You know, we are of two worldviews in this country; and those world views are polar opposites.
One believes that life is precious, and should be protected.
The other believes that life is a "choice" that should be eradicated at will.
One believes that the law is what it says.
The other believes that law can be 'interpretted' into whatever you want it to be.
One believes in self-reliance, and the freedom of choice to give Christian charity to the needy.
The other believes in equality of results, and no personal charity, but a government welfare state.
One believes it is not only a God-given right, but possibly even a responsibility to keep and bear arms.
The other believes that guns are evil, and only a professional military (who they really don't like) should have them.
Most people in the first catagory live in the Bible-belt South and heartland.
Most in the second live in the northeast and west coasts.
I don't want to force my views on them. And I sure don't want their views forced on me (but they ARE, currently)
Let the US end, if it means we get freedom back...
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