Gentlemen, Start Your Plug-Ins: How does 500 miles a gallon sound to you?

WSJ ^ | 1/1/2007 | R. JAMES WOOLSEY

[Uncledave]

An oil and security task force of the Council on Foreign Relations recently opined that "the voices that espouse 'energy independence' are doing the nation a disservice by focusing on a goal that is unachievable over the foreseeable future." Others have also said, essentially, that other nations will control our transportation fuel--get used to it. Yet House Democrats have announced a push for "energy independence in 10 years," and in November General Motors joined Toyota and perhaps other auto makers in a race to produce plug-in hybrid vehicles, hugely reducing the demand for oil. Who's right--those who drive toward independence or those who shrug?

Bet on major progress toward independence, spurred by market forces and a portfolio of rapidly developing oil-replacing technologies.

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All this is likely to change decisively, because electricity is about to become a major partner with alternative liquid fuels in replacing oil.

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Utilities are rapidly becoming quite interested in plug-ins because of the substantial benefit to them of being able to sell off-peak power at night. Because off-peak nighttime charging uses unutilized capacity, DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory estimates that adopting plug-ins will not create a need for new base load electricity generation plants until plug-ins constitute over 84% of the country's 220 million passenger vehicles.

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Once plug-ins start appearing in showrooms it is not only consumers and utility shareholders who will be smiling. If cheap off-peak electricity supplies a portion of our transportation needs, this will help insulate alternative liquid fuels from OPEC market manipulation designed to cripple oil's competitors.

[Eaker]

My wife ate the pop-tart and the "new" puppy peed on the shirts..........

Another great new year!

;<)

[Erasmus]

BTW, the freight trains crossing the country every day are Deisel-electric hybrids.

...except without the batteries.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

This all looks great on paper, but think about the electrical infrastructure this country as a whole will have to develop in order for this to happen.

Our current power grids are outdated because we just don't have to production facilities available to handle what we are currently using. California has to beg for excess electricity from other states to keep them from a total black out. There are other areas like California with the same problem.

It's not like we can easily crank up the knobs and just plug in more equipment here.

[Eaker]

"500 mpg sounds great, but what I really want is 500 horsepower! :)"

I say you should get BOTH."

I don't know what that means, but I want one!

Vague D of H commercial reference..........

[pepperdog]

Okay, but what about the fact that some electricity is generated by (whisper: coal fired generators) and (whisper: natural gas fired generators) or do we just let people think it is all generated by clean, clear free falling water or air, as in windmills? There is no free lunch on the energy problem, but some folks continue to believe we can conserve our way to a plentiful supply. If only the US would get over it's fear of nuclear energy we wouldn't be in this position, at least not yet.

[jonrick46]

Plug-ins to what? If you are plugging into low cost rechargeable batteries, it is good. However, find me a battery that is under $10,000. EnergyCS plans to start converting Priuses to plug-in operation next year for $12,000 per car. For $12,000 that's lots of gasoline one can buy. Hymotion, a Canadian company that offers kits to retrofit Toyota and Ford hybrid vehicles for plug-in use, currently charges about $12,000 for a kit. The company hopes to lower that price to half that much by next year, said president Ricardo Bazzarelle. Even at $6,000, that is lots of gasoline. For instance, let's say you drive 12,000 miles a year in your 2002 Toyota RAV4. At 25 mpg, you will travel 12K miles on 480 gallons of gasoline. At $2.50/gallon, this is $1200 to drive 12K miles for one year. If the battery cost $12,000 it would take 10 years of driving on gasoline to recover the cost of the battery. If the battery was only $6,000 you would drive for 5 years.

Let's say a typical EV battery has a life expectancy of 500 charge cycles with a range of 250 miles for each charge. That's a 125,000 miles battery lifespan. If a person drives 12,000 miles per year, they could get 10 years of driving before you would need to replace the battery. Now the economics of these batteries really comes to light. The battery would only replace the equivalent cost of the gasoline.

Most people will not think of the battery cost economics. They will only think of the mile per gallon cost. For instance, a 2002 Toyota RAV4 will travel 100 miles on 4 gallons of gasoline. At $2.50/gallon, this is $10.00. A 2002 Toyota RAV4 EV will travel 100 miles on 30 kWh of electricity. At 10 cents per kWh, this is $3.00 or $360 per year (12,000 miles) of driving. At 10 years, this totals to $3600 added to the $12,000 price tag ($15,600). For a 125,000 mile battery lifespan that's 12.5 cents/mile. Now, with the battery cost factored in, it costs $12.50 for the plug-in to go 100 miles.

Then there is the installation of the home charging circuit. Factor in the cost of a certified electrician to run a 70 amp 120v outlet for each car (home chargers runs at 70 amps/120 volts). Has anyone priced such a electrical installation? How much do the charging units cost? Also, if one were to pull into a charging station, how much more would they charge one to charge up? I am sure it will be more than the 10 cents per kWh. That could really add up.

For the plug-in method to make sense, you would need to reduce to cost of the battery to about $6,000. As far as the lifespan of the battery, one can do the math. A used car, for instance, would cost based upon usable battery life. Because of the battery economics, used car prices would be set by the battery replacement costs and battery life expectancy. That math can be left up to the free market system. It's anyones guess.

[Eaker]

California has to beg for excess electricity from other states to keep them from a total black out.

Because they would rather beg than build.

Typical.

Arnold ain't helping on this score either.

[Sunnyflorida]

"So we drill here and tell the Arabs to go to hell. "

And the Venezuelans, Mexicans, and Canadians.

[Eaker]

And the Venezuelans, Mexicans, and Canadians.

In that order, yes.

[chipengineer]

>Standard electrical plugs provide 120volts at 15 amps, or 1.8kWh

Yes, but almost everyone has 240v service with 50 amp circuits (never heard of electric stoves or clothes dryers?). So you are underestimating available power by > 6x


>So it would take 12.7 days to recharge a vehicle that was equivalent to todays vehicle with a standard electrical outlet.

Only if you are still assuming equal efficiency. Correcting for that, you can get over 1/3 'tankfull' every night.

[Sunnyflorida]

Deisel-electric hybrids are not hybrids but deisel electric..

[Erasmus]

Assuming A and B are at exactly the same altitude, of course.

< }B^)

[RFEngineer]

"So you are underestimating available power by > 6x "

Silly me. You can recharge it in 2 days then, or 12 hours with 480v 100A industrial service.

.....or, you can pump 15 gallons of gas in 5 minutes.

It really is silly to give serious consideration to electric cars, except under the most tailored of circumstances, isn't it?

[Starrgaizr]

And WWII subs were diesel-electric hybrids -- with batteries (lead-acid).

[patton]

Happy new year, my friends!

(And the weight of that puppy pee will reduce your milage by 110 miles/gallon.)

[Atlas Sneezed]

So it's either getting X miles per Joule, or Y miles per gallon. And You can be damn sure Y isn't anywhere near 500.

[meyer]

"500 mpg sounds great, but what I really want is 500 horsepower! :)"

I say you should get BOTH.

Oh but if only I could. In a reasonable vehicle, of course. Seems that the closer I get to 500 hp, the farther I get from 500 mpg. :)

[SuziQ]

I'm not planning on providing electricity for a town. As with research on hybrid cars, research on solar power is growing, increasing both collection and storage capabilities.

Progress means going forward, not staying still and accepting what is, but making those "what ifs" into realities.

[SuziQ]

Is it possible for you to fit your head into a quart-sized Mason jar? Try it to make sure.

My aren't we an irritable inglubian today? As I said before, no one will know what can or cannot be done with regards to hybrid cars, solar power, or anything else for that matter, unless it is researched and studied.

[doc30]

I posted my question becasue I read the article. Aside from a brief sentence, "And during those 20 all-electric miles you will be driving at a cost of between a penny and three cents a mile instead of the current 10-cent-a-mile cost of gasoline," there is no useful technical breakdown - no mention of power use of the electric vehicle. That additional electric useage will be more expensive. My bill doesn't break down into off-peak and regular electric useage. I do have to pay 33% more per kilowatt hour if I go over 1000 in a given month, which I regularly do. Without useful technical information, the article is propaganda.