Tech shortage could hamper 2nd Space Age

Valley Press on ^ | Sunday, December 3, 2006. | ALLISON GATLIN

[BenLurkin]

As the United States embarks on the "Second Space Age," its aerospace, science and other high-tech industries face a critical shortage of skilled engineers, scientists and technicians to do the work necessary for the country to maintain pre-eminence in space.

That message ran throughout Friday's discussions during the California Space Authority's Transforming Space Conference, a gathering of the state's various space enterprise interests.

"The Second Space Age is a new age of space exploration," said Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Riverside, honorary co-chairman of the conference.

This new age is similar to the Cold War space race in one important way, he said: "It depends on American leadership."

One oft-cited - but qualified - statistic compares the number of engineers produced yearly in the United States with other rising high-tech nations.

This country graduates approximately 70,000 new engineers per year, based on a 2004 survey, compared to some 200,000 or more in India and as many as 600,000 in China.

While noting that a wide gap in producing new engineers exists, the speakers were careful to note that the figures from India and China may be somewhat skewed due to those nations' broader definitions of engineers.

"We need to wake up. We will not be the leaders of the world we have been since World War II," Rep. Howard P. "Buck" McKeon said. The Santa Clarita Republican is outgoing chairman of the House Committee on Education and the Workforce.

"We can't just rest on our laurels. There are always people who want to knock us off that pedestal."

The problem of developing a work force of engineers is a pipeline issue, beginning with too few students willing to study math and science, McKeon said. Only half the students who do pursue such subjects in college actually graduate with those degrees, he said.

[old-ager]

> Merchants have no country. The mere spot they stand on does not constitute so strong an attachment as that from which they draw their gains

That's right. That is why you can't trust our national security to a free market.

[ColdSteelTalon]

This is what happense when you outsource engineering and technical jobs.

The only jobs left will be in the service industry.

We are going to be selling each other pizza and cutting each other's hair. Thata about the only jobs that will be left.

[lucysmom]

And China will beat these by doing what? Making lots of cheap jet engines to replace all the ones that fall into the pacific?

I can remember when "Made in Japan" meant cheap and shoddy. Wasn't all that long ago.

[The Duke]

Sorry that happened to you. I know people who've been continuously employed by DOD, mostly contractor types, since the early '80s, at very good salaries. I know people who've had to move a few times, but don't know anybody who's lost a contract who didn't find new gainful employment in short order. Sounds like you were unlucky.

Well, actually, it was the entire "Space Defense" division of my corporation that was unlucky. Going into Aeorspace I was cautioned by the old guard that this was the nature of the business - I just thought that *I* was going to be immune. I would offer this same caution to those who are contemplating DOD-related work today.

Commercial work is where the action (and opportunity) is. :)

[Wolfie]

Apparently, we can all just go work for the Government.

[LadyNavyVet]

I was thinking more of physical security and a stable form of government as intangibles that are a huge benefit to the economy. For example, when the latest latin dictator starts talking about nationalizing things, many wealthy south Americans move their assets to Miami. This helps the wealthy south Americans, who don't lose their money to the thug of the month, and helps Miami's economy, also.

One of the missions of the Navy is to keep open the sea lines of communication, a side benefit of which is the protection of civilian shipping. That's an intangible that allows businesses to operate confidently. Very hard to put a price tag on.

I think too many on this board have a knee jerk "all government is bad" mentality. I take a back seat to no one in wanting a smaller, cheaper government. But the founding fathers put "provide for the common defense" in the Preamble for a reason. If you can't defend it, you're not going to keep it very long.

[neutrino]

Thanks for the ping, A. Pole.

These students are smart. They do not want to invest their time and money in order to compete with Indians and Chinese for low wages without any job security and to be dumped after they get 40 years old.

Exactly right. The wailing about tech shortages has been going on for decades. The real problem is that various companies live in mortal fear of paying employees a wage that justifies 4 years (or more) of a challenging curriculum.

When China pulls ahead in the tech race, be sure to thank a free traitor!

[Lazamataz]

Did my part to help. Sent my son to college to be and Aerospace Engineer and he's working in the industry right now building missiles and rockets on a Defense Contract.

I was gonna be a rocket scientist, but then I changed my major to being a brain surgeon.

Then I combined the two, and became a rocket surgeon.

[LadyNavyVet]

"You're assuming that huge military expenditures are necessary to peace and security."

Absolutely I am. I don't know what the right amount of spending is, but I do know if we don't spend enough, the potential downside is limitless.

How much are those much-maligned government employees and contractors diligently working on missile defense to keep the nutball in Pyongyang from nuking our west coast worth? Billions. Priceless if you're in Seattle or San Francisco.

If a regional war breaks out in the Middle East, the Iranians will try to close the Straits to stop the flow of oil. The US Navy will thwart their efforts, decisively, averting a worldwide recession/depression. How much is that worth to the world economy? Incalculable.

Yup, those DOD employees, real leeches, they are. No value to the taxpayers whatsoever.

In 1944, the last time we were fighting a war for the survival of civilization, defense spending peaked at 43.7% of GDP. During the Cold War, it averaged 7.5% of GDP. In 2005, defense spending was 3.9% of GDP. Anyway you look at it, a bargain.

[jpsb]

Bump!

[Joan Kerrey]

I suspect that no amount of information or experience would get you out of your tailspin.

Have a glass of chablis and relax. It'll all work out.

[Theophilus]

Wah, not a huge fan of DMM?

[theFIRMbss]

>we'll end up sending our spys there to steal their technology and American wages will be lower than China's or India's wages. Chinese and Indian governments will be contracting with American companies because of the cheaper labor here. We'll be counterfieting their currency and selling nuke technology to Taiwan, Kashmir and Tibet

Libertarians
will read your post and go, "Cool!"
They like that future!

[sam_paine]

I can remember when "Made in Japan" meant cheap and shoddy. Wasn't all that long ago.

Me too. It was 30 years ago when Jimmy Carter was crowing the death knell of America...

Do you remember when Sony was going to buy just about all of Manhattan? What happened to that? Do you remember when Mexico sold cheap painted maracas and coarse hand-woven woolen blankets?

They still do.

There are many on FR that, ironically, perpetuate the 'conventional wisdom' of the hate-America-first media.

On Iraq, the media lie. On China, though, the media put forth the truth? Please.

There are a few of us on FR that have actually worked in and araound and against Chinese companies...me personally in the semiconductor business. Of course, I'm no NY Times journalist with a journalism degree, but I can tell you my experiences.

Germany and Japan have detailed/cautious engineering cultures. Mexico and China have sloppy, short-term manufacturing cultures.

For what it's worth, I personally was just as concerned as anyone about where my job would end up, so I went across the ocean to find out.

After seeing it for years close-up, I came back much less worried, and much better suited to compete in the world knowing my enemy.

Don't get me wrong, I do indeed think China will stab us in the back at each and every opportunity. But I also learned that it's nothing personal--they do it to each other daily. Chinese (and Taiwanese) are Chinese first, communists or capitalists or Mings or Nationalists later. The Chinaman in the street is proud of his thousands of years of heritage, and if the government/dynasty needs to be overthrown, then it will. This is why the Taiwan reunification issue looks so wierd to us. Americans see it as a border dispute between two nations. They see it as a dinner argument among family. Does that make sense to you?

In the end, they think that they are culturally superior to everyone else on the planet, and the Bible may have said something about pride and falls. You yourself prove the rule that Americans are naturally proud, yet cautious about being so.

I heard a terribly leftist Russian journalist on CSPAN this weekend. Most of the callers were liberal America haters. But I caught one of his responses, "You Americans have an uncanny ability for self-criticism, but Putin assasinating Litveneko(sp?) was not America's fault!" Americans compete because we always assume there there must be a better way. This is our culture. This is not true in China.

Well, anyway, I could go through all the technical reasons in my field why they are not going to take over the world. But I hope to encourage you to take some time to really find out more about those billions that eat with sticks. Here is a completely one-sided look at how entry into the WTO could possibly be the final straw for Communist China (not Chinamen). It is a good read for anyone who thinks that China is naturally suited to be #1.

Thanks for letting me vent.

[sam_paine]

Pardon me. I thought you held a serious opinion! LOL!

Enjoy your nilla wafers and chablis for breakfast, I guess.

[NathanR]

LOL The Defense Industry goes through periodic bloodbaths every 20 years or so since World War II. Many companies that existed 20 years ago no longer exist at all. Working on Black Projects doesn't protect you for long.

[RightWhale]

Thanks for the advice. It was 35 years ago. Retired now. Seen a few things along the way.

[LadyNavyVet]

I know people continuously employed with DOD since the early '80s. Lots of 'em. Have they always had exactly the same job in the same place doing the same thing for the same money? No. Of course not, and I didn't say they did.

I didn't say that people with skills and clearances would never experience a job loss. No education or skill set can guarantee that. My point was that if you have technical skills and the ability to get and hold a security clearance, there is a place for you. It may not be exactly what you want to do, when you want to do it, where you want to do it for exactly the amount you think you're worth, but there is a place for you.

That's what I said and I stand by it, although more than one poster has tried to twist my words.

[NathanR]

Unfortunately, most of us who were working in Aerospace in the late 80's, did not work for the DOD. At that time skills and a clearance did not mean you could keep or find a job anywhere. You had to be quick on your feet and lucky too.

[lucysmom]

Germany and Japan have detailed/cautious engineering cultures. Mexico and China have sloppy, short-term manufacturing cultures.

And yet the Chinese have a long tradition of beautifully detailed and carefully executed art. Once China was the target of industrial spies from Europe hoping to discover the secrets of their manufacturing processes and materials.

...Chinese (and Taiwanese) are Chinese first, communists or capitalists or Mings or Nationalists later. The Chinaman in the street is proud of his thousands of years of heritage, and if the government/dynasty needs to be overthrown, then it will. This is why the Taiwan reunification issue looks so wierd to us. Americans see it as a border dispute between two nations. They see it as a dinner argument among family. Does that make sense to you?

Yes, it does. As one expert put it in an interview (sorry don't remember his name), From the Chinese perspective, the last 150 years have just been a string of bad luck; now they're tanned, rested, and and they're back.

Long Chinese history has given them a unique perspective on the transitory nature of ruling groups - dynasties come and go, the Chinese people and culture remain. In time the culture conquerors the rulers.

As I understand it, the Taiwanese and mainland Chinese have worked out a system of commerce and neither side is particularly motivated to seek a formal relationship between the two governments. It works well for them and they would rather not see government interference through formal agreements.

In the end, they think that they are culturally superior to everyone else on the planet, and the Bible may have said something about pride and falls. You yourself prove the rule that Americans are naturally proud, yet cautious about being so.

Yes, that attitude preceded their fall. It remains to be seen what lessons they learned.

But, the lesson is there for us too. Many Americans trust in what we assume is our natural superiorty (like China in the 18th and 19th centuries?) and are quick to label criticism as hate. The Bible also says the father who loves his son corrects him.

Here is a completely one-sided look at how entry into the WTO could possibly be the final straw for Communist China (not Chinamen). It is a good read for anyone who thinks that China is naturally suited to be #1.

Certainly Chinese Communism has changed since Mao and I'm sure the process of change is not complete. I don't know exactly how China will change, but I do think its foolish to dismiss China as a force to be reckoned with, both politically and economically in the future based on what it is now.

Thanks for letting me vent.

My pleasure. I appreciate your insight and thoughtfulness.