I said on several threads before Tuesday that poll numbers suggested that the Dems were screwed. Their margin in the generic polls wasn't great enough, I thought, to give them control of either house. However, I'm standing by my assessment: They're screwed.
Early polls (August/September) hinted at a bloodbath this year. That didn't happen. The Dems control Congress by the skin of their teeth. (And as I write this, the Senate is iffy.) This is actually worse for them than falling short. Their far-left, base supporters are going to be claiming responsibility for the Dems' win and they are going to expect results for their effort. This trap of high expectations is going to be their undoing.
The first, second, and third items on the Moonbat agenda are impeachment, impeachment, and impeachment. This is something that Reid and Pelosi cannot deliver and cannot afford not to deliver. They face the same dilemma with the next agenda item: halting the War on Islamofascism.
The Democrat majority in both houses is not monolithic. There are a number of Blue Dogs in both houses and there's no guarantee that they'll go along with a Moonbat temper tantrum. A drive for articles of impeachment will look to the American People like a childish outburst. The Blue Dogs know this and won't want to get caught up in the backlash that's sure to follow. It cost us in the '90s and it will cost them now.
Pelosi's problem is how to find a way to persuade her most extreme supporters that impeachment is a bad idea. They are utterly convinced that the entire country thinks and feels just like they do. Any attempt to avoid impeachment will be seen as treasonous by them. I don't think that Pelosi can dodge this one. Either she pisses off her base, and this is a deal breaker with them, or she chases the Blue Dogs into George Bush's waiting arms.
The Blue Dogs also support the war effort. One member of the Democrat caucus in particular, while he may not qualify as a Blue Dog, certainly has an azure tinge and bruising around his throat: Joe Lieberman. Joe will probably view is re-election as a referendum on the war; and rightly so since his Democrat opponent made this the centerpiece of his campaign. The Moonbats also saw Joe's defeat in the primary as a sign of their own greatness. Seeing him in the Senate will piss them off; seeing him nixing any effort to halt the war will really piss them off! But what can Reid do? The knife wounds in Joe's back haven't healed yet. If there's a one seat margin in the Senate, then Reid needs to plant some wet one's on Joe's backside; especially on this issue.
And therein lies Reid's problem: It's a real pain the arse trying to hold together a fractious coalition. This is something that we understand. (And on a side note, loosing DeWine and Chaffee will be a blessing in the long run.) Any one Senator can become a king maker when the majority leader doesn't have the votes to spare. If halting the war comes up early, and it will, and if Reid caves in to Lieberman, and he will, then Reid will spend the next two years kissing blue butts. (Welcome to our world Harry!)
The Democrats are between a rock and a hard place. They will either split their caucus and lose their razor thin majority or they will have to cross their base. The Moonbat base has spent the last six years fuming over 2000. They want revenge and they want it now. "Go along to get along" is something that simply will not make sense to them. They will explode with rage if they don't get what they see as their rightful due. Nothing short of heads on pikes will satisfy them; talk and rhetoric won't do the job. But what satiates the Moonbats will horrify the Blue Dogs. What to do, what to do...
The Dems are screwed.
Couldn't concur more...been up all night worried about the future but, as I see it, the Dems cannot afford to go after Bush in an impeachment try. First of all they'd have a bit of trouble with the "high crimes and misdemeanor" clause in the Constitution because the president, though mighty clumsy, has committed neither. Secondly, if they put him up on trial and are successful, they'd lose the issue to run against in 08 because they have no others to spark an angry electorate. Lastly, Bush would become a martyr in the eyes of most--hounded from office for simply doing his duty protecting his nation--and, when we're hit again, the protest regarding their failure of providing our security would run through this country like a million Katrinas.
I am also of the opinion that once the patina of this victory wears off for the Democrats, they will find things tougher going than they think. One thing is to be the minority party, where you get to whine all the time, but its a whole other ball of wax to LEAD. They run the danger of misreading the electorate with this victory. They will still have to lead from the center, even as the Republicans found themselves doing so.
As Spock said "After a time, you may find that having is not so pleasing a thing, after all, as wanting. It is not logical, but it is often true." from Amok Time