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Warning: What to Expect
Self | 11/7/06 | LS

Posted on 11/07/2006 4:29:51 PM PST by LS

All right, folks. Guess I have to do it again around here and hand out the chill pills.

1) It is absolutely clear to me that we have won this. We will keep the Senate, and I'm 90% sure we keep the House. We'll probably gain a seat, maybe two in the Senate.

2) I know this from the turnout numbers, just as I did in 2004. The fact is, forget Indies. They don't vote in high numbers. It's all about the two parties, and who gets out their base.

We have done that today beyond my wildest expectations. The info we have from the Hotline on turnout is overwhelming, and in virtually every key state, we have exceeded Dem turnout by 2, 3, 4, or 6%.

As I predicted, we are seeing a Dem UNDERVOTE. They are underperforming, esp. in key states such as OH. However, they are underperforming far worse than even I dreamed. We are looking at 20% in Cuyahoga County! Brown and Strickland couldn't get elected dog catcher with that level of support.

SO HERE IS WHAT TO EXPECT: THE MEDIA IDIOTS HAVE THEIR TEMPLATES. THEY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO COME AROUND. IT WILL BE A LONG NIGHT, BECAUSE THEY WON'T BELIEVE THEIR EYES.

They may even "call" a few House races, maybe a Senate race, based on some ridiculously low "exit poll" and have to recant later. Be patient. The turnout numbers suggest we absolutely cannot lose.


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: democrats; election; imdrunk; realclearamateur; republicans; returns; roveyoudumbass; thisguyhasnoclue; toast; wasteofbandwidth; whothhellisthisguy
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To: beyond the sea

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1734413/posts


421 posted on 11/07/2006 6:33:55 PM PST by Frank Sheed (Tá brón orainn. Níl Spáinnis againn anseo.)
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To: snarkytart
They may even "call" a few House races, maybe a Senate race, based on some ridiculously low "exit poll" and have to recant later. Be patient. The turnout numbers suggest we absolutely cannot lose.

Well the results are coming in and it looks like you will have to eat your words.

Nice try though.

422 posted on 11/07/2006 6:35:26 PM PST by Jorge
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To: Frank Sheed
Fun with numbers!
423 posted on 11/07/2006 6:36:41 PM PST by Frank Sheed (Tá brón orainn. Níl Spáinnis againn anseo.)
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To: beyond the sea

Not looking good for the GOP. The West blinked, we are in trouble now.


424 posted on 11/07/2006 6:37:03 PM PST by John Lenin (No one can defeat us unless we first defeat ourselves.)
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To: John Lenin

How can they call a race FOR someone who is 10 points behind and only 6% of the total in?


425 posted on 11/07/2006 6:39:00 PM PST by beckysueb (Pray for President Bush and our country.)
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To: John Lenin

Not a good night. I'm praying for Talent in Missouri.


426 posted on 11/07/2006 6:39:29 PM PST by beyond the sea ( Either hold your nose a little on Election Day ......... or grab your ankles for the next years)
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To: beyond the sea

How the hell do they know that with 1% reporting?


427 posted on 11/07/2006 6:40:26 PM PST by RockinRight (Maintaining a Republican majority is MORE IMPORTANT than your temper tantrum.)
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To: getmeouttaPalmBeachCounty_FL
I *need* to know the GOP will be there for our military and my husband. The only thing worst than Pelosi as Speaker is another Clinton in the White House.

Not to wizz on your boots, but consider Murtha as the Chairman of the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee. If he wins, and the Dems take the House, that's what he'll be.

428 posted on 11/07/2006 6:40:27 PM PST by El Gato
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To: woofie
I wanna be depressed and mad....this not what I want to hear

Me, too. Maybe another Miller Lite will make me feel better:-)

429 posted on 11/07/2006 6:40:27 PM PST by moondoggie
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To: John Lenin

Is LS still with us? Do we still have a chance to control the House and Senate? I pray we do!


430 posted on 11/07/2006 6:40:47 PM PST by seekthetruth
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To: eureka!; LS
Hugh Hewitt is sharing your enthusiasm on the turnout numbers.

As someone said before (LS, etc.), turnout is not neccessarily Pubbie votes this election.
While I hope you are right, and I did vote all Republican, many Pubbie citizens are very unhappy, starting with the Iraq war...including me.

431 posted on 11/07/2006 6:40:50 PM PST by meema (I am a Conservative Traditional Republican, NOT an elitist, sexist, cynic or right wing extremist!)
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To: wolf24; LS

LS might have already bolted....and, I wouldn't blame him with the shots he has taken from FReepers.

His last post:

Posted by LS to defenderSD
On News/Activism 11/07/2006 7:59:52 PM CST · 339 of 426


That's my view, esp. when some places have 25% of their votes absente and counted last? Come on.


432 posted on 11/07/2006 6:42:24 PM PST by Lando Lincoln (For what cause would a liberal go to war? ...besides revolutions...)
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To: TET1968
So much for black solidarity.

Yep, when a black dem loses to a white Rep, it's racism, pure and simple. When a black Rep loses to a white Dem, in a state below the Mason Dixon line no less, well he deserved it. He is after all an Oreo. Just ask the folks who threw Oreos at him on the campaign trail.

433 posted on 11/07/2006 6:43:08 PM PST by El Gato
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To: A Citizen Reporter
I watched the first season, but thought it was rigged and dumb, so haven't watched the show much the second season and almost not at all this one.

I've got the FOOD NETWORK on now and am only looking at FR when they advertise. This thread isn't making me feel any better. :-(

Oh well, back to Rachel Ray.

434 posted on 11/07/2006 6:43:24 PM PST by nopardons
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To: RockinRight
It's tough.

I am too tired to explain, but it is possible for them to do it.

435 posted on 11/07/2006 6:43:33 PM PST by beyond the sea ( Either hold your nose a little on Election Day ......... or grab your ankles for the next years)
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Comment #436 Removed by Moderator

To: Jorge

Well the results are coming in and it looks like you will have to eat your words.

Nice try though
___

huh?

You quoted LS not me.


437 posted on 11/07/2006 6:45:19 PM PST by snarkytart
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To: beckysueb

pure exit poll calling


438 posted on 11/07/2006 6:45:28 PM PST by bnelson44 (Proud parent of a tanker! (Charlie Mike, son))
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To: nopardons

From NRO:

"At least one well-connected Republican — not Obi Wan — seems very confident about Allen finishing on top in Virginia. I see it as very very close.
They don't buy the CNN and ABC call on Cardin. The early numbers have Steele up, and they have a lot of absentees that won't get counted for a while. That's based entirely on exit polls, which are wrong.

Northup looks like a loss, and that might be a sign of a bad night.

I'm told that Michael Barone — the guy who was the first to say the exit polls were bad in 2004 —just said the exit polls gave the Democrats 6 to 8 points this year. Puts a lot of those Senate races into the neck-and-neck category.

The CNN call on Rhode Island is based on exit polls. Ignore the call, watch the actual numbers coming in tonight.

That's not to say Whitehouse won't win; just that it's likely to be close and they ought not rely on exit polls"


439 posted on 11/07/2006 6:47:02 PM PST by Leto
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To: wolf24; LS

I have faith in Larry. This is what he has been saying for months - precisely. We are still in a knock-down, bloody dogfight. But many of these early calls just aren't gonna stand.


440 posted on 11/07/2006 6:47:07 PM PST by Lando Lincoln (For what cause would a liberal go to war? ...besides revolutions...)
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