Posted on 11/07/2006 4:29:51 PM PST by LS
All right, folks. Guess I have to do it again around here and hand out the chill pills.
1) It is absolutely clear to me that we have won this. We will keep the Senate, and I'm 90% sure we keep the House. We'll probably gain a seat, maybe two in the Senate.
2) I know this from the turnout numbers, just as I did in 2004. The fact is, forget Indies. They don't vote in high numbers. It's all about the two parties, and who gets out their base.
We have done that today beyond my wildest expectations. The info we have from the Hotline on turnout is overwhelming, and in virtually every key state, we have exceeded Dem turnout by 2, 3, 4, or 6%.
As I predicted, we are seeing a Dem UNDERVOTE. They are underperforming, esp. in key states such as OH. However, they are underperforming far worse than even I dreamed. We are looking at 20% in Cuyahoga County! Brown and Strickland couldn't get elected dog catcher with that level of support.
SO HERE IS WHAT TO EXPECT: THE MEDIA IDIOTS HAVE THEIR TEMPLATES. THEY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO COME AROUND. IT WILL BE A LONG NIGHT, BECAUSE THEY WON'T BELIEVE THEIR EYES.
They may even "call" a few House races, maybe a Senate race, based on some ridiculously low "exit poll" and have to recant later. Be patient. The turnout numbers suggest we absolutely cannot lose.
50/47 Foley 25% of precincts reporting
Well, clearly it must be based on exit polling. But you have to suspect that NRO is more cynical about the exit polls than the mainstream media, and they also have some ins with Republican strategists. So, while I would love for them to be wrong, I don't see them being wrong by 12 seats.
I report you decide!
I certinaly hope you are right, don't get me wrong. Early results are breaking for the rats.
Santorum PA an Kean NJ just called for rats.
Honestly...that is not surprising. PA and NJ were goners ...imo.
CNN is not reporting any returns in in that race.
I don't know how anyone can project an election with only 45% of the vote reported. That may be an attempt by CNN to demoralize Pubs on the West Coast and reduce GOP turnout out there. But that won't work. It wouldn't surprise me if Hostettler ends up winning this in a squeaker and CNN has to pull their prediction.
I'm not that familiar with PA politics.
Why did PA turn on Santorum?
No room for NEGATIVITY!!
Fox and NBC that I know of..
From his FReeper page and book links, I would surmise it is
"Larry Schweikart is a professor of history at the University of Dayton, specializing in business and economic history, technology and war issues, and American history. He received his Ph.D. at the University of California, Santa Barbara. He is co-author with University of Washington-Tacoma professor Michael Patrick Allen of A Patriot’s History of the United States: From Columbus’s Great Discovery to the War on Terror. In 2000, Schweikart published The Entrepreneurial Adventure, a history of American business. He has also published more than 20 books, some 50 academic articles, close to 100 book reviews, and hundreds of essays. His Internet piece, "The Weight of the World and the Responsibility of a Generation," (9/16) written after President Bush’s National Cathedral speech, circulated so widely that it came to the attention of the President."
sorry :-)
Also, hard to do exit polls on absentee ballots.
I think they will be counting them tomorrow morning. I think they will favor the GOP though.
no room for reality
"Professor LS has an excellent record in these matters. Yours?
I have to justify a gut feel to you? Harumph Harumph.
Again, I'm not buying ANY calls. Just looked at the local news. They "called" OH governor with 1% of the vote. Sorry, I think we learned SOMETHING from 2004.
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