Warning: What to Expect

Self | 11/7/06 | LS

[LS]

All right, folks. Guess I have to do it again around here and hand out the chill pills.

1) It is absolutely clear to me that we have won this. We will keep the Senate, and I'm 90% sure we keep the House. We'll probably gain a seat, maybe two in the Senate.

2) I know this from the turnout numbers, just as I did in 2004. The fact is, forget Indies. They don't vote in high numbers. It's all about the two parties, and who gets out their base.

We have done that today beyond my wildest expectations. The info we have from the Hotline on turnout is overwhelming, and in virtually every key state, we have exceeded Dem turnout by 2, 3, 4, or 6%.

As I predicted, we are seeing a Dem UNDERVOTE. They are underperforming, esp. in key states such as OH. However, they are underperforming far worse than even I dreamed. We are looking at 20% in Cuyahoga County! Brown and Strickland couldn't get elected dog catcher with that level of support.

SO HERE IS WHAT TO EXPECT: THE MEDIA IDIOTS HAVE THEIR TEMPLATES. THEY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO COME AROUND. IT WILL BE A LONG NIGHT, BECAUSE THEY WON'T BELIEVE THEIR EYES.

They may even "call" a few House races, maybe a Senate race, based on some ridiculously low "exit poll" and have to recant later. Be patient. The turnout numbers suggest we absolutely cannot lose.

[IamConservative]

Indiana is not trending well at this point and it rained wall to wall all day all across the state. As of now, it looks like some long time (D) strongholds that have gone (R) in recent elections are turning back.

We'll see. Indiana is an industrial and agricultural state racked hard by loss of manufacturing and low wage jobs to illegals.

[Big Horn]

Who cares about the exit polls when hundreds of thousands of absentee voters and early voters don't figure in exit polls? The msm is still stuck in the 1990s.

When do they count absentee voters. I am sure the people in the military will be strong GOP

[LS]

25 if it goes wrong.

But just hang on. The results are not clear. One of the GA Dem seats is gone, the other very close. Allen leading (but again, it's been see-saw.) Northup behind, but not finished, and we don't know what the absentees hold.

Someone told me they "called" Hostetler with 39% of the vote. ? How far was he behind? In other words, need more data.

[beyond the sea]

Karl is King:

****

http://rightweb.irc-online.org/profile/1343

Some observers contend that part of Rove’s success is based on his willingness to fight dirty. This tendency expressed itself early, in 1970, when the then-19-year-old Rove made off with sheets of letterhead from the office of Illinois Democrat Alan Dixon, which he then distributed at a campaign rally with the message “free beer, free food, girls and a good time for nothing” printed on them. Rove reportedly owned up to the stunt many years later, saying: “I was nineteen and I got involved in a political prank, but I’m not sorry.”

LOL

[bnelson44]

What is NRO's projection based upon?

[defenderSD]

"...I'll buy you a car if you are correct.

You don't have to do that. On my next trip to PA, just buy me a couple of Rolling Rock beers on tap, chilled but not too cold. That's all I ask. Those national polls mean nothing. This is a district by district fight to get out the vote and get more turnout from our people than from their people. I think we will win enough of those fights.

[LS]

Right. However, we likely already gained on in GA; the other is close; Sekula-Gibbs leading big in the TX seat. I don't have the number, but I think Negron leading in the Foley seat.

[vrwcagent0498]

Her Perkiness™ can shove it where the sun don't shine. :)

[beyond the sea]

I hope you are right................ and, the Rolling Rock will be ready.

;-)

[bnelson44]

Ellsworth
54,845 62%

Hostettler
(Incumbent)
33,326 38%

40% of precincts reporting

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006//pages/results/states/IN/H/08/county.000.html

[over3Owithabrain]

We are definitely still in it! Let them count all the votes, folks! Remember the media wants to call races that seem to portend well for the Dems.

[spinestein]

[Some Freeper on the Indiana/Kentucky thread predicts a gain of 40 seats in the house for the Dems.]


Is this prediction based on what the media is telling him what to think of the consistently Democrat weighted exit-poll results, or is it based on a crystal ball he's gazing into?

One week ago I predicted that the Democrats would gain 11 House seats and 3 Senate seats based on nothing more than my best guess as to the mood of the electorate. I don't see anything right which would lead me to doubt that prediction but no one will know anything worth making any new predictions for another hour or so.

[mlbford2]

Umm, when is Diebold supposed to kick in?

Hope it ain't broke.

[vrwcagent0498]

Worse case scenario?

Dems get control of both houses.

They screw up the country (and our national security) royally and they are voted out en masse in '08. Which has a very good chance of defeating the Rat presidential candidate.

The GOP leadership will see the error of their ways and return to genuine conservative government principles.

That is how I will look at it, so I will be positive. :)

[BeHoldAPaleHorse]

Sekula-Gibbs leading big in the TX seat

Watch the Dems challenge every single write-in with a typo.

[LS]

Agreed. Sekula-Gibbs winning big in Delay's seat. Foley's seat is going R. We gained one in GA, and are within 3 of the other. So if you want to get "technical," we've really only broken even so far. (I think we're losing a NH seat, though).

[Chunga]

Fox just called Pennsylvania for Casey

[bnelson44]

Foley seat is see/sawing. Currently:

Foley
40,087 50%

Mahoney
38,267 47%

25% of precincts reporting

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006//pages/results/states/FL/H/16/county.000.html

[LS]

Again, watch "calls." Strickland was "called" in the governor's race without a SINGLE VOTE BEING COUNTED. Doesn't that make you go hmmmmmm.?

[Chunga]

Fox just called New Jersey for Menendez