Do Democrats melt when they come into contact with water? If so, that'd explain a lot...
Posted on 11/07/2006 3:23:51 AM PST by 11th_VA
WASHINGTON — As Republican strategists make last-minute preparations for Election Day, checking voter lists and calling supporters, they might want to consider an unorthodox tactic: a rain dance.
A new study of voter behavior confirms something political operatives have long suspected: rain hurts Democrats and helps Republicans. The study found that 1 inch of rain reduces overall turnout by slightly less than 1 percent and cuts the Democratic vote by 2.5 percentage points.
“Rain does have a significant effect decreasing the Democratic vote share,” said Brad Gomez, a visiting professor of political science at the University of Georgia who co-authored the study. “That’s a fairly sizeable swing.”
By analyzing weather and voting data since 1948, Gomez and his colleagues, Thomas Hansford and George Krause, calculated how many voters stayed home because of rain and snow.
During the especially rainy 1992 election, 666,000 voters stayed home, but Democrat Bill Clinton won the presidency by such a large margin that it did not affect the outcome. By contrast, weather had virtually no effect on turnout in 1952 and 1980.
The more it rains, the more people stay home, the researchers found. But snow has a lower impact. One inch of snow reduces turnout by slightly less than 0.5 percent.
They determined that a few storms in the right locations could have changed the outcome of the 1960 presidential election. If there had been storms in the Northeast and the Midwest, Richard Nixon would have won instead of John Kennedy.
Their study, “The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather Turnout and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections,” will appear in the Journal of Politics next year.
Campaign strategists have long believed that bad weather deterred Democratic voters more than Republicans. But until now, they didn’t know how much.
Why are Democrats affected more? Political operatives believe it’s a matter of demographics. Democratic voters tend to be poorer than Republicans and may not have cars to drive to the polls. Those voters, the theory goes, would be more likely to stay home in bad weather.
Another explanation is that Democrats are more likely to be what political scientists call “peripheral voters,” people casually interested in politics who don’t feel compelled to vote in every election.
Their decision about voting is more likely to be influenced by outside factors such as rain.
Gomez was inspired to conduct the study after watching Today Show weatherman Al Roker predict that stormy weather would have an impact on turnout. He wondered how Roker could make such a claim.
Gomez and his colleagues compiled voting data and weather reports for more than 3,000 U.S. counties for presidential elections from 1948 to 2000. Using a sophisticated analysis of precipitation, historical turnout and factors that affect voting, they calculated how much the turnout was influenced by rain or snow.
To compensate for voters accustomed to rainy or snowy weather in their hometowns (they theorized that residents in soggy Seattle would cope with rain better than people in a dry city such as Phoenix), the researchers factored in normal precipitation for election day.
They studied only presidential elections, so it’s not clear how well the results apply to a mid term election like the one Tuesday. The impact of weather could be different because midterm elections draw fewer peripheral voters.
Democratic strategists acknowledge that their party is more affected by bad weather but say they boost their turnout efforts by giving out rain ponchos or adding more vans to give voters a ride to the polls.
The party’s biggest weather fanatic is Donna Brazile, the manager of Al Gore’s 2000 presidential campaign. With the election just three days away, Brazile has been watching the Weather Channel and checking Web sites to see where the storms will be.
Other Democratic operatives simply look at the forecasts, but Brazile analyzes the jet stream and tracks storm systems hundreds of miles away.
Friday night, she was hopeful because of a high pressure system over the Ohio Valley. She said it would keep storms away from important states such as Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
“I would say right now the weather forecast favors Democrats.’’
Washington bureau chief Bill Adair can be reached at adair@sptimes.com or (202) 463-0575.
I am happy to report it is raining in Detroit.
It's pouring in Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio!
Had lots of rain over the weekend and yesterday was rainy and windy in the Seattle area (and other parts of WA).
Raining here now.
They're watching polling places for flooding (rain water, not dead and illegal voters) in the King County (greater Seattle metro area):
http://www.metrokc.gov/elections/
"I am happy to report it is raining in Detroit."
Good!
Did you drill holes in the roofs of those buses that take rats to the polls?
Rain it red. I have for the record VOTED A STRIAGHT REPUBLICAN TICKET.
That's because Republicans are already out; working! However, when you are sitting home, because you spent all the welfare money you just received a week ago, there is no incentive to leave the house!
Liberals sympathize and act from emotions. Conservatives empathize but act on principles regardless of emotions.
Rain tends to depress the emotions while sunshine elates. Those whose moral barometer is unhinged flipflop accordingly.
On Election Day, Lord, please let this be especially so--and especially wet.
"They're watching polling places for flooding (rain water, not dead and illegal voters) in the King County (greater Seattle metro area)"
I'll be voting after work today - straight R (fingers crossed for Reichert and McGavick). While I'd rather have Steele, Allen or Santorum as my Senator - I'll take McGavick over Maria Can't-Vote-Well!
Good positive thoughts for all R's today. Victory!
Here in St.Pete it is raining nicely! Storms are to get a bit stronger later on today.:) We do not read the St.Pete Pravda but they might be right about rain keeping the Dems at home. I hope so! :)
Poor motivation and easily distracted. The modern Democratic Party appeals to people who lack ambition, the "gimmee" voters.
Great news, thanks!
Praying for downpours in Philly and Pittsburgh...
The Rovian Weather Control Machine® is on full blast here in Florida...RAIN, RAIN, RAIN...GOP all the way, baby!!!
PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) - A "Pineapple Express" winter storm brought the threat of floods and mudslides to northwest Oregon on Monday, and authorities restricted or closed some roads.
The National Weather Service said rainfall could top 10 inches in the Nehalem River basin by Tuesday morning and warned of flooding. The river runs southwest out of the Coast Range to Nehalem Bay.
In Clatsop County, officials made plans to have a dump truck pick up ballots for Tuesday's election in case of flooding.
County Clerk Nicole Williams urged voters south of Seaside, where travel on U.S. 101 was restricted, to take their ballots south, to Cannon Beach, for example, rather than try to make it through high water to drive to drop-off points to the north.
http://www.katu.com/news/4572802.html
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Western Washington Braces For Record Flooding
POSTED: 7:25 am PST November 3, 2006 UPDATED: 5:15 pm PST November 6, 2006
SEATTLE -- Heavy rains and winds from a Pacific storm lashed Western Washington on Monday, with the National Weather Service issuing record severity flood warnings for eight rivers. Gov. Chris Gregoire declared a state of emergency for 18 counties.
A hunter was reported missing in the swollen Cowlitz River in southwest Washington after a riverbank collapsed beneath his vehicle.
Residents of low-lying areas near rivers and streams were encouraged to move to higher ground, as some rivers were expected to surpass flood stage by more than 10 feet, including the Snohomish River near Monroe and the Skykomish River near Gold Bar, northeast of Seattle.
The warm, moisture-heavy storm that came onshore during the weekend would continue over the region through Wednesday, the weather service said, with intense rainfall predicted through Tuesday in some areas.
A number of rivers jumped their banks Monday, including the Snohomish and Skykomish. The weather service said water was expected to cover farms, flood some rural homes and close many roads, and was not expected to recede in some areas until Friday.
"This will likely be the most flooding we've seen in a decade, and perhaps the biggest in November since 1990," said KIRO 7 Eyewitness News Chief Meteorologist Andy Wappler, who added that a "tropical connection" was at work.
http://www.kirotv.com/weather/10233246/detail.html
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NOAA Map
http://www.weather.gov/largemap.php
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