Sorry Donna
Posted on 11/07/2006 3:23:51 AM PST by 11th_VA
WASHINGTON — As Republican strategists make last-minute preparations for Election Day, checking voter lists and calling supporters, they might want to consider an unorthodox tactic: a rain dance.
A new study of voter behavior confirms something political operatives have long suspected: rain hurts Democrats and helps Republicans. The study found that 1 inch of rain reduces overall turnout by slightly less than 1 percent and cuts the Democratic vote by 2.5 percentage points.
“Rain does have a significant effect decreasing the Democratic vote share,” said Brad Gomez, a visiting professor of political science at the University of Georgia who co-authored the study. “That’s a fairly sizeable swing.”
By analyzing weather and voting data since 1948, Gomez and his colleagues, Thomas Hansford and George Krause, calculated how many voters stayed home because of rain and snow.
During the especially rainy 1992 election, 666,000 voters stayed home, but Democrat Bill Clinton won the presidency by such a large margin that it did not affect the outcome. By contrast, weather had virtually no effect on turnout in 1952 and 1980.
The more it rains, the more people stay home, the researchers found. But snow has a lower impact. One inch of snow reduces turnout by slightly less than 0.5 percent.
They determined that a few storms in the right locations could have changed the outcome of the 1960 presidential election. If there had been storms in the Northeast and the Midwest, Richard Nixon would have won instead of John Kennedy.
Their study, “The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather Turnout and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections,” will appear in the Journal of Politics next year.
Campaign strategists have long believed that bad weather deterred Democratic voters more than Republicans. But until now, they didn’t know how much.
Why are Democrats affected more? Political operatives believe it’s a matter of demographics. Democratic voters tend to be poorer than Republicans and may not have cars to drive to the polls. Those voters, the theory goes, would be more likely to stay home in bad weather.
Another explanation is that Democrats are more likely to be what political scientists call “peripheral voters,” people casually interested in politics who don’t feel compelled to vote in every election.
Their decision about voting is more likely to be influenced by outside factors such as rain.
Gomez was inspired to conduct the study after watching Today Show weatherman Al Roker predict that stormy weather would have an impact on turnout. He wondered how Roker could make such a claim.
Gomez and his colleagues compiled voting data and weather reports for more than 3,000 U.S. counties for presidential elections from 1948 to 2000. Using a sophisticated analysis of precipitation, historical turnout and factors that affect voting, they calculated how much the turnout was influenced by rain or snow.
To compensate for voters accustomed to rainy or snowy weather in their hometowns (they theorized that residents in soggy Seattle would cope with rain better than people in a dry city such as Phoenix), the researchers factored in normal precipitation for election day.
They studied only presidential elections, so it’s not clear how well the results apply to a mid term election like the one Tuesday. The impact of weather could be different because midterm elections draw fewer peripheral voters.
Democratic strategists acknowledge that their party is more affected by bad weather but say they boost their turnout efforts by giving out rain ponchos or adding more vans to give voters a ride to the polls.
The party’s biggest weather fanatic is Donna Brazile, the manager of Al Gore’s 2000 presidential campaign. With the election just three days away, Brazile has been watching the Weather Channel and checking Web sites to see where the storms will be.
Other Democratic operatives simply look at the forecasts, but Brazile analyzes the jet stream and tracks storm systems hundreds of miles away.
Friday night, she was hopeful because of a high pressure system over the Ohio Valley. She said it would keep storms away from important states such as Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
“I would say right now the weather forecast favors Democrats.’’
Washington bureau chief Bill Adair can be reached at adair@sptimes.com or (202) 463-0575.
Sorry Donna
RYMB !!!
It's raining here in Marietta, Ga. I sense a rainy GOP victory today ........
Everyone - get out and vote or we'll get more of this:
In our brave new schools, Johnny can't say the pledge, but he can recite the Quran. Yup, the same court that found the phrase "under God" unconstitutional now endorses Islamic catechism in public school.
A Clinton appointed judge ruled in California's 9th Circuit Court that it's okay for kids to be forced to recite aloud Muslim prayers that begin with "In the name of Allah, Most Gracious, Most Merciful . . . ."
Memorizing the Muslim profession of faith: "Allah is the only true God and Muhammad is his messenger."
Chanting "Praise be to Allah" in response to teacher prompts.
Professing as "true" the Muslim belief that "The Holy Quran is God's word."
Giving up candy and TV to demonstrate Ramadan, the Muslim holy month of fasting.
Designing prayer rugs, taking an Arabic name and essentially "becoming a Muslim" for two full weeks.
Parents of seventh-graders, who after 9-11 were taught the pro-Islamic lessons as part of California's world history curriculum, sued under the First Amendment ban on religious establishment. They argued, reasonably, that the government was promoting Islam.
But a federal judge appointed by President Clinton told them in so many words to get over it, that the state was merely teaching kids about another "culture."
http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=25311
"Another explanation is that Democrats are more likely to be what political scientists call “peripheral voters,” people casually interested in politics who don’t feel compelled to vote in every election.
Their decision about voting is more likely to be influenced by outside factors such as rain."
In other words, Democrats tend to be lazy and uninformed. Tell me something I DON'T know.
Maybe even Savannah GA - Pick up a couple of Democratic seats !
I've been saying this for weeks, and maybe today will prove me wrong, but the "average" Democratic voter is not energized by this election, at least not in my neck of the woods.
I live in a heavily Dem neighborhood. Every year, signs and more signs for every Dem candidate on the ballot are staked out in yards.
This year, there are signs, but only for a local school board race which is non-partisan. I've seen as many Crist signs as Davis signs in our neighborhood. It's very strange, but I'm hoping it's a foreboding of the reality that Dems won't be turning out en masse.
I'll know later today. Usually there are lines, and since my son is voting early this AM before his classes, hubby is voting at lunch and I'm voting in the afternoon, we'll have a pretty good idea of turnout.
Looks like Rove has the old rainmaking machine warmed up. LOL!
Hey, I'm gonna vote. Pubbie.
And I won't be going in a limo, BTW :)
I live in Marietta, too. I also sense a strong victory!
too bad I just voted here in Cleveland and it started raining about a half hour prior to the polls opening. Let it rain all day until 7:30.
Nothing could make me happier than the MSM being forced to admit that "Democrat Wave" they've been measuring was really just a mirage. It's just an echo chamber created by the 20% of voters who make up the angry, outrageous, blasphemous, trash-mouth Left.
Wouldn't it be great if there were a way to measure how many DU-types stayed home pounding their keyboards because they didn't want to get wet?!!
These people shouldn't be allowed to vote.
It passed over the Alabama Gulf Coast yesterday.
HARD downpours lasted about 3 hours. Light rain on and off all day long. Believe me, it was bad enough to discourage any but the most dedicated voters (and we know who we are!).
That used to be true in the past, but it simply isn't anymore. That was firmly put to rest in '04, and there are more Republicans than Democrats in America now.
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