Posted on 10/30/2006 10:57:31 PM PST by MadIvan
Daniel Ortega, the former leader of the Left-wing Sandinistas in Nicaragua and one of the United States' most reviled Cold War enemies, appears to be on the brink of making a spectacular comeback.
Twenty years after his Sandinista government fought a bitter civil war against American-funded ''Contra" rebels, he is leading in the polls for the presidential elections on Sunday.
But now he has ''found God" and talks of ''peace and love" not Marxist-Leninist ideals. In a final frenzy of campaigning, the podgy, balding 60-year-old, is spreading what he calls a "spiritual revolution", "full of love and hope" around this country, the second poorest in Latin America, after Haiti.
"Thanks to God, the Supreme Creator, whose message always was for the Nicaraguans to love each other," he shouted to a euphoric crowd in the Laureles Sur "barrio" slum of Managua. "We want work and peace," he went on, holding his arms up like an Evangelical preacher.
On his third attempt to win back power after losing it to conservatives for the past 16 years, Mr Ortega is offering himself as "the solution" for almost every walk of Nicaraguan life.
Without explaining how, he promises to provide jobs, improve human rights and turn Nicaragua into the most developed country in the region.
Several indigenous communities who were forced to flee during his 1979 to 1990 government, Contra fighters who fought a bitter civil war against the Sandinistas and members of the Catholic Church, which he once accused of collaborating with the CIA, have all been "converted" and now openly support the man they once hated.
"Ortega is just saying whatever he can to every group, to win their votes," said Sofia Montenegro, a sociologist and the director of Cinco a Managua-based think tank. "There is nothing left of the revolutionary man. Now it is just pure opportunism. He is a political pendulum, ready to say whatever people want to hear. He has no scruples."
As the vote approaches, Washington has made clear its discomfort.
"We've made clear we want to have a close, positive, constructive relationship with Nicaragua, and up to this point that's been reciprocated," Thomas Shannon, the assistant Secretary of State, told Newsweek.
"I'm not sure that would be the case with Daniel Ortega."
Human rights campaigners, including Nicaraguan-born Bianca Jagger, have warned that Ortega's human rights record is far from squeaky clean. He is accused of presiding over "disappearances" and imprisonment of thousands of political opponents.
While large numbers, perhaps even the majority of the 5.5 million population, are against Ortega, their vote is likely to fragment among four different parties, giving the Sandinista leader a chance of a victory in the first round of voting. Under a recent change to electoral law, a party wins if it secures 35 percent of the vote, with a five percent lead.
"He is going to win, thank God," said Arodys Villega, 54, a diedhard Sandinista supporter whose son died aged 15 fighting against the Contras. "Until now we have had democracy only for the bourgeois. The poor have remained poor. Daniel will change that. Nicaragua is going to be blessed by him."
If it was legit, he wouldn't have Chavez praising him. Look upthread.
You're badly misinformed. We have sent them help, and they are very democratic. The problem is a holdover of the Sandinista regime which still controls a lot of the local political scene and were able to rewrite the election laws so that Ortega could win with a 35% popular vote with no run-off.
As it is right now, Nicaragua is very pro-American. After signing CAFTA, they have reformed their laws and foreign investment is pouring in.
An Ortega victory could alter the direction of the country, but it's not because we turned our backs on them.
Nuts
Time will tell.
Hugo Chavez is at it again...
Ortega sounds like Hugo Chavez. Once in power, you can bet he will start acting like Chavez, and will turn to Russia to modernize his army.
One man, one vote, one time.
Watch out, Nicaraguans!
I also have trouble moving to an area that won't allow my gun collection.
I was down in Nicaragua earlier this year. It's a beautiful country. The people are very nice and I felt very safe.
That being said, it's still a poor country. It's had bad government for nearly its entire history and it shows.
My guess is that Ortega will win this election but not by enough to win outright. And then he'll get trounced in the runoff.
I think much brighter days are ahead for Nicaragua.
Mexico is kind of a unique case. It's a large country with very big upper class and a very much bigger lower class with almost no middle class.
The upper class uses the political machinery to preserve their wealth. While Mexico is a democracy, the corruption has been extended to all levels of law enforcement so any kind of real political reform is problematic.
It isn't a matter of race. We've had decades of true democracy in Central and South America, although there have been the recent setbacks you noted. Hell, we're capable of complete lunacy both in North America and Europe with Caucasians in charge.
Caucasians= Liberals?
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