Posted on 10/19/2006 9:17:17 AM PDT by SirLinksalot
WASHINGTON — There are two ways to look at any election cycle -- by comparing it to past cycles or taking it at face value. The problem for prognosticators is that we have to use both methods simultaneously.
History is my guiding principle on all things political, but I also believe that every election is an individual snowflake.
The similarities between this midterm cycle and '94 are striking, and yet the differences are stark. I've broken down this debate into reasons why the cycles are and are not similar.
The reasons why '06 seems similar to '94 are:
1. One-Party Control: This is probably the single most important similarity framing this cycle. In order for a "change" election atmosphere to work for the minority party, the party in power has to be viewed as in control of everything. And right now it's clear that Republicans are in charge. Still, GOP partisans will argue that no one really controls the Senate without 60 votes, but that doesn't resonate with voters. A Republican is speaker of the House, a Republican is Senate majority leader and there's a Republican in the White House. And thanks to the controversy involving Terri Schiavo, the public presumably views the judiciary as skewing to the right.
Similarly, in '94, there was no denying that the Democrats were in charge. Democrats held all three positions.
2. Unpopular President: Like '94, this president has a job rating south of 45 percent. And because President Bush is a member of the party leading Capitol Hill, his problems are Congress' problems. The thing that ought to scare Republicans a bit more about this cycle, compared with how '94 should have scared Democrats, is that Bush's job rating is hovering just beneath 40 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.msn.com ...
My personal read is -- GOP still controls both houses, albeit with diminished majorities.
This will be good for 2008. It'll teach the GOP that if they campaign as conservatives,
My thoughts exactly. However, I am a bit worried about the Presidential race for 2008. People like to switch presidential parties much more than Congress and House. Normally Republicans get 12 years before the switch, but not sure if we will get it this time. We might end up with a one term democrat and then switch back. It would be completely foolish to ever say we will NEVER have a democratic President again. I would say that it is possible to NEVER have a democratic house again especially if we do survive this round. Senate goes back and forth all the time. Your thoughts?
Even Rove projects we will lose seats, just not 15 of them. But, it's not that big of a leap to go from 10 to 15. Are independent voters that tip the balance in many districts that scared of Pelosi that they will crawl over broken glass to vote GOP? I really don't think so.
I also don't think those voters have even thought much about the consequences of the Dems picking up 15 seats passed the notion of it being a change from the way things are now.
"Don't you remember the 2004 exit polls? Polls don't mean jack shit."
I agree with your conclusion regarding polls. What is disturbing to me is the very real, and strong, discontent among Republicans/Conservatives with the current office holders. Now, let me preface what I'm about to say with the fact that I will unquestionably vote republican, since the alternative is despicable. Nevertheless, I am discontented myself, and I think that discontent - mine and others - revolves around the fact that this republican "majority" has been unable to:
- stand up to and refute democrats, their whining, their propaganda, their intimidation, their obstruction and deliberate sabotage of the administration;
- make a CLEAR - and convincing - case about Iraq, that resonates with more than "hawks," and has more than merely the appearance of a "holding pattern," with troops killed regularly and no end in sight;
- do something definitive regarding energy, like push the environmental wackos out of the way, and authorize drilling for oil in various areas of our own country, since we're awash in it, AND emphasize it's a temporary measure and part of a comprehensive energy plan (which they also have not enacted), to bridge us to new technologies, while eliminating our dependence on foreign oil;
- do something definitive to stop the ridiculous flood of illegal aliens invading our country, and secure the sieve known as our "borders" from them and terrorists;
Basically, while holding the power and, based on the 2004 election, a public mandate to act, they have done NOTHING. Had they acted decisively, in even one or two of these areas, this election would be a slam dunk for the taking, probably in a Republican landslide.
Now...I'm not worried about people like myself, and probably you, who know they must vote republican for our nation to stand any chance of positively dealing with all these things and recouping our constitutional republic, and, like you, have no absolute faith in polls. I'm worried about those in the nation - middle of the roaders, for example, both republicans and independents - who can't clearly see the real danger the dems pose, and, being vaguely uneasy and discontented with the status quo, may think they're voting for "good" change.
If you can assuage my fears, I'm listening...
Do you think it is?
I trust Rove's assessment because I can't remember him ever being wrong before.
"I'd really love to hear the reasons for your optimism."
I'll give you a reason. My optimism doesn't stem from polls. It stems from newspaper sales and media ad buys. The MSM is losing both readership and viewership at an alarming rate which means people are going somewhere else for news.
Polls do not take into account that 83% of the counties in the US are Republican, up from 2000. It is easy to go to San Francisco, poll 30% Dems, 20% Liberal Republicans and 50% indpendents and come up with poll numbers.
Notice how no polls take place in flyover country, which the RATS will not pick up seats. In addition, if the Duke Cunningham incident in California was a reminder to all you skeptics, the MSM had Bilbrays opponent up 10% up until a week before the election. He won by 8%.
This is all smoke and mirrors by the MSM. The RATS are out of money and the Republicans are now starting to spend theirs.
We may lose a couple of house seats and a senate seat or two. But that is it.
Many pollsters don't use a phone number DB. They have machines that randomly generate phone numbers within an area code and exchange.
Period.
I wasn't thrilled with a lot of Bush's actions in 2004, but the alternative was JFnK.
Plus, no matter how the MSM spins it, the economy is good, gas is reasonable, and people won't want to rock the boat.
All politics is local. Nobody is going to vote for a Democrat because Foley was a Republican, unless they were already going to vote Democrat anyway.
Quit listening to the MSM. They want to discourage you. It's their only hope.
I'm not NEARLY as optimistic as Plurbis and a lot of these other guys, but almost all of the polls that I've looked at are seriosuly oversampling Dems and individual races are tighter than the national "snapshot" polls like presidential popularity/ job approval. This is probably NOT going to be a good year for the GOP but I don't see it as the blood-bath that '94 was to the Dems. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if we lose the House, though I also wouldn't be surprised if we retained it (though by a razor thin margin). The Senate is probably safe though, and that's a bigger prize anyway. Still, we ain't gonna add any seats as some have predicted, that's pretty certain.
I'm prepared for losses, I just don't think it's going to be the bloodbath that the media hopes for.
I don't think that most voters look at the big picture. They're looking only at their own local races. As an example: Curt Weldon's race in PA. from what I'm reading he's trailing pretty badly. I think alot of those voters are thinking what the heck it might be time for a change not realizing that by losing that seat they help propel all of those hideous Dems. in to leadership spots.
Yawn, GSC, nice try, but you were on board with pelosi's and drive by medias call for Haster's head, so now wonder you would be pushing pelosi talking points.
Like I said, you like the democrats will be crying in your Starucks on November 8th.
And I actually had a pollster state that it takes 5 phone calls to get 1 response and with the pletora of such things as cell phones and caller ID's, the people that pollsters are most likely to reach are people with old style land line phones(I.E more likely to be democrats)
Dane, I have feeling that on November 5th when Saddam is sentenced to death in a Iraqi Court, Nancy Pelosi, Barak Obama, and other DEM anti Death Penalty activists will be asked if Saddam should be executed?
Can you say Micheal Dukakis moment?
http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/10/arianna_huffing.html
You're right, I was paraphrasing what I thought they were referring to a data base but it's a little different on why they don't contact cell phones or VOIP phones.
Toby, a new Siena Reasearch poll has Republican Sweeney up by 15 % in the NY 20. CQpolitics has this as a toss up. Phone pollster Constituent Dynamics had his DEM oppopnent up by 13% last week.
It shows that these DEM leaning pollsters are ludicrous and in bed with the DNC.
Taking those two samples I would say Sweeney is really up by 2%. I don't think anyone can get a good picture from any polls so I will have to leave it up to Rove and company to see.
Not a bad anaylsis. But, know this: I don't listen to the msm; I listen to other conservatives, and it's they who are voicing the discontents I mentioned. Of course, the hope is that, being conservatives, they know the evil of the other side, and will continue to vote republican in spite of disagreements.
Some people just make a hobby of complaining.
I don't know why people keep bringing that up. The polls just before the election showed a dead heat, not Kerry up by 10 or something.
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