Toby, a new Siena Reasearch poll has Republican Sweeney up by 15 % in the NY 20. CQpolitics has this as a toss up. Phone pollster Constituent Dynamics had his DEM oppopnent up by 13% last week.
It shows that these DEM leaning pollsters are ludicrous and in bed with the DNC.
Taking those two samples I would say Sweeney is really up by 2%. I don't think anyone can get a good picture from any polls so I will have to leave it up to Rove and company to see.