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Locked on 10/01/2006 6:19:30 PM PDT by Lead Moderator, reason:
October thread here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1711848/posts |
Posted on 09/01/2006 8:57:29 PM PDT by nwctwx
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Years ago when the Pope died and his successor died a few weeks later the Harvard Lampoon (or maybe it was the Harvard Crimson) put out a headline: "Pope dies yet again."
Sometimes this still surprises me. I expect it among the general population, but not as much here.
Peter Bergan (on CNN ~ 11:05am)
Notes on Interview
Host: There have been reports of UBL death in past, this reliable?
Bergan: No… I am highly skeptical of this report, we have a pseudo source in an Intel document that we don’t know the nature of. The number of people would know is limited… number in contact is something like ½ dozen a day. We have had these reports in the past that were total nonsense. He (UBL) some health problems: low blood pressure. Talking about water borne illnesses… they are a dime a dozen in Pakistan. Who wouldn’t be a little unhealthy in his condition (on the run)? Zawahri would treat him in the past for this low blood pressure problem. I am extremely skeptical… why has al Qa’ida not announced it? Particularly if he was killed, it would be. Zawahri announced his wife’s death and the family took out announcement in newspaper. In Islamic tradition, the body needs to be buried in 24 hours after death, so there would have been a funeral. There are lots of things we would know if he was dead.
Host: Would al Qa’ida want to announce if he didn’t die a martyr?
Bergan: They don’t have a clear/strong successor. Zawahri is no bin laden. Yes, if he died natural causes… they might not trump it.
Rumors have been greatly exaggerated before, there is so little here to make this “kosher.” We have been through this many times. The kidney disease story went on for years and years… if that was true he would have died long ago. Until we have more, so far the only confirmation is that al Qa’ida’s leader may have a waterborne disease… 30% in Pakistan probably have one, the water is not good there… it probably doesn’t matter much.
I guess that would be a pretty convoluted way of giving a signal . . . leak a false rumor of your own martyrdom and choose a particular date of significance for it to have happened. On the other hand, it also gives everyone something to chew on if a "tape delayed" Ramadan broadcast shows up on al Jazeera in coming days. Unless he gives a time cue on the videotape, people might speculate that the coming video was made before his reported death. So if he hasn't made the final version, he will need to give some "proof of life".
And then on the other hand, if or when we ever do capture or kill him, there is bound to be a retaliatory global terror binge. So one way to disrupt that is to "cry wolf" so many times so that when you do get him, no one will believe "yet another wild rumor". And he'll end up like Hitler in the bunker with people going on for decades coming up with stories that he escaped and went to live in disguise in Argentina or something.
Whether you capture or kill UBL (this President or the next one), it may be a political short-term bonanza that will be tempting to exploit (especially before an election). But looking at the big picture over the long-term, it might be better not to ever put a period on that end of that sentence.
If you capture him and never tell anyone, you extract information until the end of his days without worrying about someone from the Red Cross wanting to see him to make sure you aren't violating Geneva. And more important, you don't spend the next three decades with jihadi hostage taking and terror ultimatums trying to win his release like they still do with Sheik Abdul Rahman, "the blind Sheik" who ordered the WTC attack in 1993. And if it is impossible to capture him alive and you just have to kill him, it might be better to leave folks wondering than to hold a press conference saying "we got him" a la Saddam or Zarqawi.
But I still think he is waiting and timing his "reappearance". Having had more time to think about it, I think I was wrong about his "breathiness" on one of his recent audiotapes. I watched the replay of the 60 Minutes interview with his Yemeni bodyguard and that guy mentioned UBL had a throat problem that sometimes became apparent. And I remember reading a hadith about the Mahdi having a speech impediment of some sort. So his being seemingly short of breath on the last audiotape might be a signal/"sign" of a different sort rather than a sign he had been running up the back stairs of some building in an urban area.
Whose funeral was this? ( that famous Taliban funeral photo )
Picture at link:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1706924/posts
Sometimes this still surprises me. I expect it among the general population, but not as much here.
Since there have in fact been several small-scale terrorist incidents in this country since 9/11 (both publically thwarted and some actually carried out), it's quite clear that there is still cause for concern; the only thing remaining to be debated is how much concern. Anyone who thinks that that concern is 'paranoia' just hasn't been paying attention.
Pakistan denies Bin Laden’s death reports
http://www.pakistanlink.com/Headlines/Sep06/23/11.htm
I agree it would be odd. I thought of it after a reporter commented that it was possible French intel was trying to get bin Laden to respond on video to prove he is alive. Since we have long heard that an attack would coincide with a video release, it just struck me as interesting.
Thanks I will keep watching.
Just remembered . . . 8/23 was the tenth anniversary of the official declaration of war by al Qaeda against the United States.
It is interesting, and possibly significant.
Declaration of Jihad by Osama Bin Laden against the US - August 23, 1996
http://www.terrorismfiles.org/individuals/declaration_of_jihad1.html
Thanks for the links, nw.
That date occurred to me, as well. Coincidence? Somehow I doubt it.
ON THE NET...
http://tajdeed.org.uk/forums/showthread.php?s=483091f7a36ab6aa80d783e781eb23d9&threadid=45385&perpage=15&pagenumber=3
http://www.m5zn.com/uploads/e1d91dd0ea.jpg
VOAnews.com - Nairobi: "SOMALIA PROBES DEADLY BOMBINGS" by Alisha Ryu (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "The United States has accused some senior members of Somalia's Islamist movement, including the group's leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, of having links to al-Qaida and harboring extremists. In recent years, many Somalis have privately blamed several radical members of the Islamic group, who are believed to have received terrorist training in Afghanistan, of carrying out roadside bombings and a series of assassinations of Somali intellectuals, aid workers, and a BBC journalist in Mogadishu.") (September 21, 2006)
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