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Posted on 08/30/2006 6:30:12 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Ernesto is poised to emerge into Atlantic waters after feebly creeping along the Florida peninsula. Media pundits with tremulous cameras dotted Florida's extensive coastline for the past 24 hours, showing video of children playing in the sand, dark skies, and occasional rain.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Sebastian Inlet Florida to Cape Lookout North Carolina, as Ernesto moves north at 15mph. The storm's intensity and forecast track has puzzled forecasters for several days.
N.C. Governor Mike Easley and S.C. Governor Mark Sanford activated the National Guard today in their respective states, as the forecast track indicated Ernesto may regain tropical storm force winds, and make landfall again along the Carolinas coastline.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM
Buoy Data Southeast U.S.
Radar
Jacksonville, FL
Charleston SC
Wilmington NC
RDU NC
Satellite Images
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Tropical Storm Ernesto
Hurricane Ernesto
TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto
TS/Hurricane/TS/TD Ernesto
Thanks for the good wishes and take care where you are.
Thanks for the link.
June is as late as they posted.
http://www.weather.com/aboutus/television/music/june2006.html
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2006
reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft and data
from the Wilmington North Carolina WSR-88D indicate that Ernesto
has come up just short in its bid to become a hurricane. The radar
showed winds near 75 kt about 3000 ft above the surface a few hours
ago...but those winds have since diminished. The hurricane hunter
just reported a minimum central pressure of 988 mb about 10 N mi
from the North Carolina coast...with 63 kt winds
70 N mi northeast of the center. Some central convection remains
over water...and until this is inland there is a chance that
Ernesto could briefly reach hurricane strength in the next few
hours. Overall...Ernesto should weaken over land...then become
extratropical in about 36 hr. The cyclone should be absorbed by
the baroclinic system over the eastern United States in 48-72 hr.
The initial motion is 020/16. Ernesto should turn northward during
the next 24 hr and then north-northwestward as it rotates around
the deep-layer baroclinic system over the eastern United States.
All model track guidance agrees with this...and the new forecast
track is on the eastern edge of the model guidance. It is shifted
a little to the east of the previous track based mainly on the
initial position.
The combination of Ernesto and a strong high pressure area to the
northeast is expected to produce gale force winds from the Delmarva
Peninsula northward. However...these winds are not directly
associated with the circulation of the tropical cyclone. See
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 01/0300z 33.9n 78.2w 60 kt
12hr VT 01/1200z 35.7n 77.3w 45 kt...inland
24hr VT 02/0000z 37.6n 77.2w 30 kt...inland
36hr VT 02/1200z 39.4n 77.5w 25 kt...extratropical
48hr VT 03/0000z 41.7n 78.4w 25 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 04/0000z...absorbed by extratropical system
$$
forecaster Beven
From what? Folks unable to make a beer run because of the weather?
Prayers UP .
"domestic violence. "
"From what? Folks unable to make a beer run because of the weather?"
No, the FRANTIC piano music on TWC that howlin mentioned. Sets some people off.
what a wacky storm!
The worst weather is in a band to the NE of the center. Folks NE of the Cape Fear landfall need to be on guard for a chance of strong squall and especially a tornado. If you are in that sector, be sure to keep tuned to your local media for an adequate warning of any approaching severe weather.
All you have to do is link it.
Thanks. I just put it on my profile page for now. I'll find another use for it later.
I have no respect for a man who cannot hunt and gather enough to keep his own beer supply. Beat a woman off that?
Fire ants, with honey on his unit, on the beach after it dries off.
I didn't research exactly who were involved in the conversation with him... just pinged many prominent in these threads.
Anyway, thanks.
Gameover...
but the announcer just said 'Redskins 0-4...remember...the last time they finished 0-4 in the pre-season - in 82' - they won the superbowl'
Keep up the good work, time to get some sleep!
Tomorrow, just might be a long day.
-t
Local channels reporting idiots around Johnny Mercer pier, taking a look at the storm.
Oh, and a pizza delivery guy!
Can you imagine putting somebody in danger like that so you can have a pizza?
better him than you! lol :)
Amen to that. Rare is the tropical storm that fails to intensify over the warm waters of the Florida Straits, the waters that spawned the Great Labor Day Hurricane about the same time of year - but decides to intensify over the Florida Pensinsula just to be a pain in the arse.
Who is dumber, the driver or the people who ordered it?
My deck is COVERED with "debris".........just covered.
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