Now they are saying this bastard will all but stall out for a couple days. Watch out, Virginia.
| This thread has been locked, it will not receive new replies. |
|
Locked on 08/31/2006 8:22:55 PM PDT by Sidebar Moderator, reason:
New Thread time |
Posted on 08/30/2006 6:30:12 PM PDT by NautiNurse
I have never paid, I am not sure why. I signed up as a photographer the day it hit their site and it said free services came with it for a year... that year passed and I never paid a dime and keep getting the services. Not bad! ;-)
Even their free offerings are pretty cool, and I am sure they will continue to grow quite a bit in the coming years.
I doubt there will be any more intensification. The vortex report didn't show an eye, and I can't see one on radar. The center of circulation is looking a bit chaotic, much more than two hours ago and quite a bit more than four hours ago or so, when there was the beginning of an eye that quickly broke apart.
Based on this new understanding, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center typically now uses a factor of 90 percent to estimate a hurricane’s maximum surface winds from flight-level observations. This means that the winds of some storms in the historical record may have been underestimated.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s966b.htm
5pm advisory out. 70mph winds. Looks like that will be peak intensity.
Yup, probably.
Now they are saying this bastard will all but stall out for a couple days. Watch out, Virginia.
If the center would quit moving east, I'd tend to agree with that.
Tropical Storm Ernesto :
Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 29
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2006
extensive reconnaissance with both NOAA and Air Force aircraft indicate that the maximum surface winds associated with Ernesto are 60 knots. The central minimum pressure is 991 mb. Satellite and radar presentation show a well defined convective curved band wrapping around an area of deep convection near the center. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast at 15 knots and on this track...the cyclone is forecast to reach the coast within the warning area tonight with 60 knots. One can not rule out the possibility a slight strengthening to a category one hurricane at landfall.
Once inland and beyond 36 hours...Ernesto should begin to interact with a frontal system and become extratropical by 48 hours. However...the remnant system is expected to move little and produce heavy rains over portions of the eastern United States.
The combination of Ernesto and a strong high pressure area to the northeast is expected to produce gale force winds from the Delmarva Peninsula northward. However...these winds are not directly associated with the circulation of the tropical cyclone. See products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 31/2100z 32.6n 78.7w 60 kt
12hr VT 01/0600z 34.7n 78.0w 50 kt...inland
24hr VT 01/1800z 37.0n 77.5w 30 kt...inland
36hr VT 02/0600z 38.5n 77.5w 25 kt...extratropical
48hr VT 02/1800z 41.0n 78.5w 25 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 03/1800z...absorbed by a frontal system
$$
forecaster Avila
Wilmington is already flooding as they have record breaking amounts of rain there today, five plus inches. Winds of 70 mp or less even combined with the rain to come can make for a big mess.
Nooooooooo.
Heads up ( to keep them above water)
We got 1 inch yesterday and another .4" overnight until around noon. I dumped the gage around 1:00PM and we've had a slow steady rain since then for a total of around .35"
Should pick up around 8:00PM. We'll see.
It's not really moving east very much at this point, and is about to go completely north. Look at the trough going from positive (tilted sw to ne) to neutral (tilted n to s) in the central portion of the U.S. Also, the high pressue building down from the north won't let it go east much longer.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.gif
let's build an ark!
Not good!
I like Storm2K better
I see you are in Cumberland Co. I am one county over to the west of you; in Hoke Co. I border the southern Moore Co. line. Personally, I don't feel this will be significant here if the track keeps shifting eastward. Or, at least I am hoping it won't. Yesterday's storm in Aberdeen/Southern Pines was enough for me for a while as we got around 6 in in some parts of Sou Pines.
1 - looks like a bit of dry air got sucked into Ernesto over the last few hours - might be another reason why it started looking less lively.
Check out John - the convection first spread out and then signficiantly diminished. Hopefully he's taking a hit from being so close to the coast.
I haven't seen much rain at all here in the last few days, I am hoping that will be the saving grace when it comes
Any chance it will change direction and head west? We could use abit of rain!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
