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Tropical Storm Ernesto leaves Florida and heads for the Carolinas
NWS/NHC ^ | 30 August 2006 | NHC

Posted on 08/30/2006 6:30:12 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Ernesto is poised to emerge into Atlantic waters after feebly creeping along the Florida peninsula. Media pundits with tremulous cameras dotted Florida's extensive coastline for the past 24 hours, showing video of children playing in the sand, dark skies, and occasional rain.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Sebastian Inlet Florida to Cape Lookout North Carolina, as Ernesto moves north at 15mph. The storm's intensity and forecast track has puzzled forecasters for several days.

N.C. Governor Mike Easley and S.C. Governor Mark Sanford activated the National Guard today in their respective states, as the forecast track indicated Ernesto may regain tropical storm force winds, and make landfall again along the Carolinas coastline.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Buoy Data Southeast U.S.

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Radar

Jacksonville, FL
Charleston SC
Wilmington NC
RDU NC
Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:

Tropical Storm Ernesto
Hurricane Ernesto
TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto
TS/Hurricane/TS/TD Ernesto


TOPICS: Front Page News; Miscellaneous; US: Florida; US: North Carolina; US: South Carolina
KEYWORDS: ernesto; hurricane; tropical
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To: bitty; NautiNurse
It looks like there is an eye beginning to form. It can be seen on both Charleston and Wilmington radars. I believe we probably are at minimal hurricane strength now.
341 posted on 08/31/2006 12:03:11 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx

I think you're right. It will be interesting to see if the pressure begins to drop.


342 posted on 08/31/2006 12:10:14 PM PDT by Raebie
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To: nwctwx

I definitely saw the eye forming on the radar a little while ago.


343 posted on 08/31/2006 12:10:55 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: NautiNurse

The wind speeds might not be there yet though. The 5:00 update should be interesting. Have to rely on recon before you can call it a cane.


344 posted on 08/31/2006 12:13:40 PM PDT by Raebie
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To: nwctwx

Yes, and eye looks tacking a due north path?


345 posted on 08/31/2006 12:18:31 PM PDT by txhurl
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To: isawitonline; fatima

My parents are in Ventnor and aren't coming back to Philly until Mon. They live 1/4 block off of the beach but are behind a motel so I hope that blocks off some of the wind.


346 posted on 08/31/2006 12:19:26 PM PDT by hipaatwo (Vote for your life. Every vote for a Democrat is a vote against victory.)
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To: txflake

The easterly component should be coming to an end soon. The trough axis to the west is mostly north/south now.

The "eye" we are seeing is probably not evident at the surface yet (as the beam is shooting into the midlevels of the system), but it's the beginning of something.


347 posted on 08/31/2006 12:20:10 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: txflake

Actually, it looks to me like it's moving NE.


348 posted on 08/31/2006 12:20:26 PM PDT by Raebie
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To: Pyro7480
Ah, I would guess you're not missing much. Am I wrong?

Not wrong at all.......she's got this thing about people who oppose her.......and I have a thing about people who lie to me (especially politicians)

349 posted on 08/31/2006 12:23:05 PM PDT by Gabz (Taxaholism, the disease you elect to have (TY xcamel))
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To: hipaatwo

Our renters are there till monday.I feel bad for everyone.Did you see the tornado from that storm the other night?


350 posted on 08/31/2006 12:25:35 PM PDT by fatima
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To: fatima

I saw it. Seems like we're getting more and more tornados in this area. I'm in a heavily populated area and if one ever hit Philly where I am I can't imagine the destruction it would do.


351 posted on 08/31/2006 12:31:59 PM PDT by hipaatwo (Vote for your life. Every vote for a Democrat is a vote against victory.)
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To: nwctwx
I think that small gap was a transient feature in the circulation. I'm more concerned with that new feeder band that is starting to develop in the clear air to the north of the general center of circulation - that could bring some brief, nasty weather when it hits land.

It seems like the circulation near the center also seems to be elongating a bit W to E.

352 posted on 08/31/2006 12:32:35 PM PDT by dirtboy (This tagline has been photoshopped)
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To: hipaatwo

Philly's part of a mini-tornado alley that stretches from York eastward. I've been around more tornados living up here for 18 years than I did living in Texas, Missouri and Oklahoma. However, most of the tornadoes here are dinkers - a F3 is pretty rare. Usually they are no worse than an F1.


353 posted on 08/31/2006 12:34:20 PM PDT by dirtboy (This tagline has been photoshopped)
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To: hipaatwo

I know where you are.I use to live in Philly.I saw a twister coming down the driveway at our thrift store in Bensalem.We stood at the door with our mouths open because it formed that fast and was small but coming towards us.It turned and hit a couple of places on Street Rd.Never saw anything like it.


354 posted on 08/31/2006 12:39:18 PM PDT by fatima
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To: dirtboy
Philly's part of a mini-tornado alley that stretches from York eastward.

I've heard of at least another south of there in the DC area (particularly since you had two tornadoes go through or near La Plata, MD). Do you have a source for that?

355 posted on 08/31/2006 12:43:49 PM PDT by Pyro7480 ("Love is the fusion of two souls in one in order to bring about mutual perfection." -S. Terese Andes)
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To: Pyro7480

I saw a national tornado frequency map a few years back and you could see that there were was an uptick east of the Appalacians in the mid-Atlantic. I'll see if I can find it again.


356 posted on 08/31/2006 12:44:49 PM PDT by dirtboy (This tagline has been photoshopped)
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To: PeteB570

Hope you don't get saturated. You are not too far from the coast.


357 posted on 08/31/2006 12:45:00 PM PDT by bwteim (bwteim: Begin With The End In Mind)
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To: nwctwx
Here's an interesting tidbit. I went to Wunderground and checked the winds for Isle of Palms just NE of Charleston - its in the main convective band coming down from the north.

Winds were 3mph, gusting to 7.

358 posted on 08/31/2006 12:45:58 PM PDT by dirtboy (This tagline has been photoshopped)
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To: nwctwx
Georgetown, SC (up the coast a bit further): Winds of 3mph.

Myrtle Beach (near projected landfall): Winds of 17mph, gusts to 28.

Looks like a lot of the stronger winds are out from the center in that large band, ahead and to the right of the center.

359 posted on 08/31/2006 12:48:53 PM PDT by dirtboy (This tagline has been photoshopped)
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To: dirtboy

Is it a personal weather station? There are plenty of those in the wunderground network that aren't very accurate.

Charleston had 20mph sustained 30 min ago.


360 posted on 08/31/2006 12:49:13 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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