On/Off Hurricane Ping list, mash ---> 
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Posted on 08/30/2006 6:30:12 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Ernesto is poised to emerge into Atlantic waters after feebly creeping along the Florida peninsula. Media pundits with tremulous cameras dotted Florida's extensive coastline for the past 24 hours, showing video of children playing in the sand, dark skies, and occasional rain.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Sebastian Inlet Florida to Cape Lookout North Carolina, as Ernesto moves north at 15mph. The storm's intensity and forecast track has puzzled forecasters for several days.
N.C. Governor Mike Easley and S.C. Governor Mark Sanford activated the National Guard today in their respective states, as the forecast track indicated Ernesto may regain tropical storm force winds, and make landfall again along the Carolinas coastline.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM
Buoy Data Southeast U.S.
Radar
Jacksonville, FL
Charleston SC
Wilmington NC
RDU NC
Satellite Images
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Tropical Storm Ernesto
Hurricane Ernesto
TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto
TS/Hurricane/TS/TD Ernesto
On/Off Hurricane Ping list, mash ---> .
GOVERNOR KAINE DECLARES EMERGENCY DUE TO TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
RICHMOND, Va. — Governor Timothy M. Kaine declared a state of emergency for the Commonwealth of Virginia today, allowing the deployment of Virginia National Guard personnel and other assets in preparation for Tropical Depression Ernesto. The declaration instructs state agencies to take all reasonable actions necessary to protect the health and safety of Virginians.
"As Virginians have seen in the past, tropical depressions can be deadly. Tropical Depressions Gaston and Jeanne caused significant damage and destruction in Virginia just two years ago," said Governor Kaine. "I urge Virginians to take common-sense precautions: make sure you have food, water, and medications to last at least three days. Be sure to monitor local broadcast stations for weather updates and other critical information, and be alert for flash floodingand tornadoes."
The National Weather Service forecasts that Ernesto will follow a north-northwest track and affect much of Virginia during the next 48 hours. Current forecasts indicate that Tropical Storm Ernesto could cause damaging high winds, flash flooding, and possible tornadoes throughout the state.
The Governor's emergency declaration authorizes state agencies to speed assistance to communities in need. It makes state resources immediately available to rescue, evacuate, shelter, and provide essential commodities in affected localities if needed.
The Virginia Emergency Operations Center remains at Increased Readiness status in anticipation of the arrival of the storm, and a Federal Emergency Management Agency Liaison Officer arrived on-site at the VEOC on Wednesday.
Important severe weather preparedness information, including specific information about Ernesto, is available at www.vaemergency.com.
With a forward speed of 17 mph, one side is at hurricane strength already, isn't it?
Radar is always a little difficult to take at face value when the center is so far from the beam. I do think it might have looked better earlier from that perspective, but IR looks better now than it has in a while (though you can see the front in the nw quad), and continues to show convection increasing (especially in the southern semi-circle).
There is shear, but the storm is enveloped in a relatively low shear environment still.
I don't see any reason it doesn't continue slowly strengthening until landfall. There are negative factors, but it's clearly been strengthening (more than forecast) for a while now.
By nature forecasting often becomes a pissing contest. I guess I'm just used to it from running a weather board.
No eerie clam in the Carolinas!
No, the forward speed generally has minimal additional affect.
Oh no.
Thanks..........I lost my connection before I could post it.
DelMarVa Ping...........please see post #302
"Data from a NOAA p-3 reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher gusts."
"Repeating the 200 PM EDT position...31.9 N...79.1 W. Movement toward...north-northeast near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60 mph. Minimum central pressure...993 mb."
Well? which is it?
70. The recon data probably came in after they had written the advisory. They probably forgot to change it.
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Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2006
...Corrected for repeat section intensity...
...Ernesto nearing hurricane strength...
What about the front moving through NC? Could that front move this TS further east?
Ernesto was supposed to hit Orlando at 8pm last night. My 7:47 flight was pushed back to 8:20. Apparently, it wasn't such a big deal, because it got moved back up to 8:00 (and we left at 8:05).
Ping to #302, The Eyebrow has declared a state of emergency.
}:-)4
Prayers for all in the storm's path.
We should develop an eyebrow alert warning system.
I'd say at this point, Ernesto rates two eyebrows...
(and, oh yes, there will be photoshop)
I hate to say it, but this is the 2nd thing he has recently done that I have to agree with..........
Probably not. If the storm was still weaker, the front might have had more of a chance to keep it east. Now that the storm has strengthened quite a bit over the past 12 hours it will be affected more by the incoming shortwave to the west. In the short-term, it might be a bit east, simply because a wobble here and a wobble there makes it pretty hard to forecast precisely. In the long term, it will still get grabbed by the system moving in from the west and pulled back inland.
"I'd say at this point, Ernesto rates two eyebrows..."
You guys are funny! LOL I can't wait to see it.
hilarious!
Oh, I didn't say I don't agree with him. But I don't have to like him.
;-)
(what was the first?)
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