The Ayatollah's Answer--Iran's nuclear strategy is to divide and conquer the U.N.

Wall Street Journal ^ | August 24, 2006

[Ooh-Ah]

...mullahs' strategy was paying dividends as Russia and China took the bait and urged further negotiations. These countries have their oil or nuclear energy deals with Tehran, and they don't seem to worry all that much about Islamic radicals getting the bomb. Perhaps they figure that's America's problem, or Israel's, though how an Islamic regime with a nuclear arsenal helps Russian or Chinese interests is a mystery.

...

... "no good options" available to pressure Iran, but that's more excuse than analysis. Iran's mullahs are unpopular at home and their citizens will notice if they are declared a global pariah state. Sanctions on travel by Iran's government officials, diplomats and sports teams may be largely symbolic, but such symbolism will not be missed on the Persian street.

Iran is also vulnerable economically. Sanctions on banks that deal with Iran can limit the regime's access to global credit markets for trade and other financing. ... Iran also imports some 40% of its refined gasoline. A ban on selling gasoline to Iran would surely lead to gas lines and other shortages there, with possible domestic political repercussions. And it is domestic discontent that the mullahs rightly fear the most.

The worry ... oil card in retaliation, ...sending world oil prices perhaps to $100 a barrel. But the mullahs can't eat oil. Amid other economic sanctions, they would need their income from oil sales more than ever. ... if the world...won't allow them to go nuclear, ...

...

No one wants a military confrontation with Iran, but those who want to avoid one have an obligation to show the mullahs that continuing on their current path will lead to isolation, economic suffering and worse. A U.N. Security Council that passes resolutions it refuses to enforce is itself a threat to global security.

[the_Watchman]

they [China and Russia] don't seem to worry all that much about Islamic radicals getting the bomb.

Both of these regimes are quite willing to make it very plain that the use of the ANY bomb on their soil will result in decimating Tehran, no proof needed.

[Ooh-Ah]

Good point!

The Iranians have bought 2 vetoes on the Security Council making all these negotiations, AND the UN--as usual, a farce!

[Rameumptom]

strategy is to divide and conquer the U.N.

My little sister could divide and conquer the U.N. wussies

[blackbart.223]

"My little sister could divide and conquer the U.N. wussies."

The U.N. has long ceased to be a factor in this.

[LeoWindhorse]

let's try something 'different'

Declare war on Iran.....

[Always Independent]

Maybe when they start chanting death to Russia or death to China they'll get the point! Come to think of it, Its a great idea! Maybe we should boycott the china olympics for security reasons!

[JohnBovenmyer]

No one wants a military confrontation with Iran

They must not be asking that question around here... The dumbest thing is how short sighted Russia, China, etc. are about this. Do they think a post-Mullah Iran won't want to sell oil? Get rid of the political instability and I bet their infrastructure will improve, their production will increase and their oil price will tend to fall (at least in so far as supply factors have an effect, growing demand may continue to push up the price point, just not as far up as under the status quo.) Realistically all the Mullahs can threaten with oil is temporary shortages.

[StoneWall Brigade]

China is only looking out for there pocket book is all

[pppp]

"The Iranians have bought 2 vetoes on the Security Council making all these negotiations, AND the UN--as usual, a farce!"

Iranian couldn't buy Russia's and China's votes for a simple reason they can't afford it. [It's like saying that Argentina or Indonesia bought US vote]. I my judgment the picture if Iran as o loose cannon is seriously flawed.
Now Iran is seriously engaged [at least financially] on so many fronts, that even with a significant stretch of imagination it's difficult to believe that oil revenues can cover all.
1. Significant finances go to Iraq. Don't kid yourself filling the void created by removal of Sadam [the void that US refuse to fill because it is afflicted with political-correctness-madness syndrome - a lethal infectious disease transmitted by left-leaning intellectual elites] was pretty expensive, Especially in the face of long-lasting Arab-Persian distrust, and the memory of the bloody Iraq-Iran war.
2. Hezbollah is also quite expensive pet. The toys used against Israel were very costly and you have to remember that a lot of money was spent to buy the support of Shiite population of south Lebanon [hospitals, schools, TV station, pensions for poor and family of martyrs - it's like financing a state without tax revenue]
3. Expensive nuclear program. There is a good reason why authoritarian governments in poor countries don't indulge themselves in this way.
4. France. When 'French youths' entertained themselves by burning cars in French suburbs, I read that one of US ex-diplomat accused Iran and Syria of inciting those events. First I dismissed it, but after France duped Israel and US into ceasefire by promising 'robust military force' to patrol the border I had the second thoughts
5. Iran is certainly engaged in Afghanistan [It have to. By a rule of thumb your neighbors wars cost you a lot of money]
6. Internal situation. Young urban dwellers are getting restive. They won't put up with deteriorating quality of life. Some money have to be spend on them.

If we take into account that Iranian economy is in a shambles [an oil rich country that have to import gasoline!!], we have to wonder how to the hell it can afford this kind of policy???!!

[StoneWall Brigade]

I've got a good asnwer to Iran its called the B-52 Bomber its best asnwer to anything

[odds]

7. Don't forget Iran's continuing financial support to HAMAS, in addition to Hezbollah.
8. Also, the elite and not so elite clergy and their entourage take a significant amount of oil revenue, drug revenue, and so on for themselves and have many business investments/equity and properties mostly in the names of their offsprings and cohorts in all sorts of places around the world.

As for Russia and China: Well, Iran knows that if it were to even dream about threatening either one of those countries, Iran would be a massive crater before IRI goons could blink. Russia and China wouldn't follow the U.N. 'procedures' if their interests were ever to be threatened. IMO, Russia and China don't need to be bought by Iran. They are playing 'the balance of power game' against the U.S. and Iran is one of their pawns.

"How can it afford this kind of policy??!!"

IMO, it can afford this kind of policy because a) the 'International Community' (for a lack of better term) allows them time & latitude. b) Ahmadinejad has to save face, at least, within the Islamic world, to be perceived as a hero who stands up to the only remaining Superpower i.e. the U.S.

Remember, the Mullahs in Iran do not think rationally (not by Western standards anyway). The Mullahs and their supporters are incapable of economic management or governing a country. They rule by fear and oppression. However, they are savvy political players and in politics reality doesn't really count, what does count is 'perception'.

[odds]

"but after France duped Israel and US into ceasefire by promising 'robust military force' to patrol the border.."

BTW, there is nothing "robust" about the French. The 40 odd variety of cheese can be wobbly and stinky. Actually, smelly/stinky is good but only for CHEESE. :-)

[Outland]

"...how an Islamic regime with a nuclear arsenal helps Russian or Chinese interests is a mystery."

No mystery at all. To Russia and China, Iran and Islam are regarded as useful idiots. Neither Russia nor China like the U.S..

[pppp]

' there is nothing "robust" about the French. The 40 odd variety of cheese can be wobbly and stinky'
I meant 'robust' by comparison. The French military contribution was supposed to be 5000 soldiers with permission to shoot, with task to supervise Hezbollah disarmament [even if we assume that French servicemen know more about cheese than about firearms, it doesn't sound so bad]. What we got are less than 50 people in uniforms on the ground and promise that another 150 will arrive. To be honest I can't grasp what is the point of their arrival anyway. They won't disarmed guerrillas, they won't be put into dangerous [unstable] situation. So what is going on? UN is paying for French servicemen holiday, as the expression of the gratitude for fruitful cooperation?

[Cindy]

ON THE NET...

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[pppp]

'the Mullahs in Iran do not think rationally (not by Western standards anyway).'
The Mullahs are were rational people. Compare the power they have with the power and influences the clergy has in western countries. In secular [westernized] country they would be marginalized. Fighting with western influences they fight for their political and economical survival. The same goes for hereditary clan leaders [ in Middle East Muslim societies the two categories overlap]. I'm not privy to the package offered by Europeans and US to Iranian government. But if the 'incentives' amount to help to strenghten the country economically and help to modernize it then Good Luck!!! I'm going to buy plenty of pop corn and bear because a good show is coming.

[odds]

I know, my comment about cheese was tongue in cheek.

I'm not sure what exactly is going on with the French. A few days ago, I read that the French contribution will be only about 200 troops. It is particularly strange when you consider that Lebanon has had very close French connection over the decades.

I believe, from what I hear thru the media, that the Chirac government won't be in power much longer.

[Cindy]

"I'm going to buy plenty of pop corn and bear because a good show is coming."

GIGGLING...It should be a real good show if the bear eats all your popcorn.
You need a better online translator, I believe.

[odds]

"It should be a real good show if the bear eats all your popcorn."

lol