Antarctic Snowfall Snafu Derails Climate Models

National Science Foundation ^ | 11 Aug 2006 | National Science Foundation

[Marius3188]

An improved method of measuring Antarctic snowfall has revealed that previous records showing an increase in precipitation are not accurate, even over a half-century. In the August 10 edition of Science magazine, researchers explain that their analysis of ice cores and snow pits revealed that precipitation levels in the Antarctic have in fact remained steady. The upshot of the study is that models assessing climate-change may need to be revised, as they can no longer be deemed accurate.

The multinational Antarctic team comprised 16 researchers who wanted to amass snowfall data going back 50 years to the International Geophysical Year (IGY). The data taken from the IGY is regarded as the first real study of the Antarctic, which has been ongoing ever since. This time around, however, the team found that their data contradicted computer models used to calculate global climate change, where most predict an increase in precipitation as atmospheric temperatures increase. "There were no statistically significant trends in snowfall accumulation over the past five decades, including recent years for which global mean temperatures have been warmest," said lead author Andrew Monaghan, a research associate with Ohio State University's Byrd Polar Research Center.

During the expedition, the team used data from ice core samples, networks of snow stakes and meteorological observations. Not satisfied with this data alone, the team also included ice core records from the International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition (ITASE), another multinational research program that began in 1990 in order to reconstruct the continent's climate history. The latest team's voracious accumulation of data coupled with a thorough analysis provides the most accurate study to-date of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and the thicker East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS).

Recent observations of the WAIS, a marine ice sheet with a base below sea level, show that vast quantities of ice are melting at a faster rate than previously recorded. Many observers consider this and an increase in calving icebergs along the Antarctic's margins to be evidence of global warming. The team's findings also counter climate-change skeptics who consider a thickening of Antarctica's enormous ice sheets has stemmed the gradual rise in global sea levels.

The new study shows that current climate-change models need to be revamped if scientists are to have a more accurate representation of Antarctic weather patterns. "The year-to-year and decadal variability of the snowfall is so large that it makes it nearly impossible to distinguish trends that might be related to climate change from even a 50-year record," said Monaghan.

[ChadGore]

Re: Al Gore's going to need to find a new line of work.

Manbearpig will survive!

[MinorityRepublican]

That's interesting. I thought with global warming, hurricane season will be more active each year?

[Drammach]

Not to defend them but don't the majority of the Hurricanes come in the end of the season. Warmer water and all that...

That is true, but the US hurricane center has also downgraded their predictions of hurricane activity for this year..
Instead of 4 to 6 "major" hurricanes this season, they now predict 3 to 4..

Of course, that's not to say that next year may not be bad, just that this year isn't expected to be as bad as they thought..

[JSteff]

"Of course, that's not to say that next year may not be bad, just that this year isn't expected to be as bad as they thought.."

What ever. People are so stupid to place day to day occurrences as part of a global trend. You need hundreds of years of records to validate things like global warming

They can get some of that from ice core and tree ring records but still... for now global warming is a myth and a tool for the enviro weenies (socialists) to try to obtain their ends.

The real fools are those who fall for it.

[Drammach]

I don't disagree with the idea that global climate is (slowly) warming...
I think there's sufficient evidence of natural climate change to validate the "probability" that it's getting warmer..

What I argue with is whether there is an appreciable human-induced affect.

There is a possiblility that climate change could reverse it's trend tomorrow..
Ten years from now, we could be in the beginnings of a cooling trend that lasts a decade, 50 years, 100...
We simply don't know..

Scientists and politicians would do better concerning themselves with how to deal with it than trying to correct it..
The very idea that mankind can force an entire planet to do anything at all is the height of egotism, in my opinion..

Let's see them make it rain in areas stricken with drought, or stop a hurricane..
Then, maybe I'll listen to how they have the answer for global warming..
And it ain't Kyoto treaties..

[ModelBreaker]

precipitation levels in the Antarctic have in fact remained steady. The upshot of the study is that models assessing climate-change may need to be revised, as they can no longer be deemed accurate.

The validity of a model must be judge by how well it makes predictions about the world. Now suppose you make a prediction with your model and it's wrong. If you just take new data that contradicts your model and tweak the parameters to be consistent with the new data, it is now fit to that new data. The model no longer makes predictions about that data that may be used to validate the model.

With enough settable parameters, you could continue this process forever and never have a model that makes usable predictions about reality. There are, for example, proofs that you can fit any set of data points with a line to any desired degree of accuracy using only polynomials. So you just keep adding polynomial terms and tweaking parameters and you get your perfect fit. But these fits are almost always really bad fits in terms of predicting the values of unknown points. They are "overfit."

In a way, this approach is similar to the Ptolemaic circles-within-circles approach to explaining an earth-centered solar system. Each time a new, inconsistent fact was discovered, more circles were added. The model fit the known data quite nicely. But it did a terrible job of predicting new data.

[N2Gems]

ping

[raybbr]

Geez, measuring snowfall in the Antarctic. How does one get such a cushy job??????

[dirtboy]

The upshot of the study is that models assessing climate-change may need to be revised, as they can no longer be deemed accurate.

Surprise, surprise, surprise. We can't even accurately forecast the weather five days out, but agenda-driven climate scientists claim they can model climate fifty years into the future. Looks like the only hot air is coming from their pieholes.

But of course, we're the uninformed dolts for not accepting their "science" as gospel.

[bobdsmith]

You might find this interesting:

Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70's? No

[Moonman62]

Al Gore's going to need to find a new line of work.

More inconvenient truth for Al.

[OldFriend]

Albore.....HE PLAYED ON OUR FEARS!!!!

The left is just so pathetic. And note too that McCain has declared gorbal worming the most serious threat to mankind!

[Zon]

There is a possiblility that climate change could reverse it's trend tomorrow. Ten years from now, we could be in the beginnings of a cooling trend that lasts a decade, 50 years, 100... We simply don't know..

If historic cycles are a prelude to the future we do know or at least have high degree of confidence.

Want to see an enviro-whacko's head explode? Show 'em this.

The following graphs show that Earth is in a brief period of global warming called an interglacial. The longer time spans, the deep troughs are glacial periods. The line that runs across the graphs is the temperature in 1950 and listed as "0" on the left axis.

As can be seen in the last graph (Figure 1-5), Earth appears ready to move toward another ice age in the cycle.

I'm more concerned with sustaining global warming to offset global cooling and the next ice age.

Ice Ages & Astronomical Causes
Brief Introduction to the History of Climate
by Richard A. Muller

Origin of the 100 kyr Glacial Cycle

This first graph looks bad, doesn't it -- steeper upward temperature trend. Horizontal red line is temperature at 1950.

Figure 1-1 Global warming

The second graph shows today's temperature isn't out of the norm. Horizontal blue line is temperature at 1950.

Figure 1-2 Climate of the last 2400 years

The next graph shows a downtrend in temperatures from 8,000 years ago to today. The down trend is steeper in the recent 2,000 years. From left to right the upper spikes have lower highs while the lower spikes have lower lows. (The same effect can be seen in Figure 1-2, above.) 

Figure 1-3 Climate of the last 12,000 years

This graph shows that agriculture and  stationary societies emerged 8,000 years ago during a time frame when global temperature was much higher than normal, or average.

Figure 1-4 Climate of the last 100,000 years

The next graph shows that the recent 8,000 years was one of five brief hot spikes when glaciers were at minimums. With much longer troughs when glacials (ice ages) were the norm most of the time.

Figure 1-5 Climate for the last 420 kyr, from Vostok ice

The graph below is reversed. That is, the left side is present day and the right side is 3 million years ago. It shows a 3 million year down trend toward widening extremes in the temperature cycle.

Figure 1-6 Climate for the last 3 million years

[DWPittelli]

Indeed, don't you know that when it comes to "global warming," all news is bad news? It was increased snowfall in Antarctica that held out hope for mankind (and global warming theorists) that maybe sea-level rises would not accompany the theorized (in fact, presumed) human-induced warming.

"The team's findings also counter climate-change skeptics who consider a thickening of Antarctica's enormous ice sheets has stemmed the gradual rise in global sea levels."

Note that this quote calls even people who believe in human-induced global warming "skeptics" if they only do not believe in accompanying floods.

[Clara Lou]

How long before this is in the NYT?

[norwaypinesavage]

Global Warming is a religion. It cannot be refuted by facts.

[SunkenCiv]

topic from last month.

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[null and void]

Al Gore invented the iPod.

Figures, he's clearly a pod person...