Posted on 08/09/2006 6:08:31 PM PDT by Jameison
Yesterday I wrote, "For what it's worth - and it's not much - my guess/prediction in today's Democratic Senate primary is Ned Lamont by a small margin - say, 51-49 or 52-48." With 98 percent of the precincts reporting, it's Lamont 51.79 percent, Lieberman 48.21 percent. Feeling my oats, I'm now going to predict that between now and Election Day you're going to see polls showing Lamont up big. And yet, he's doomed.
Let's do some math. According to state records, Connecticut has 1.95 million active registered voters as of last year, of whom 653,055 were registered as Democrats, about 33.4 percent. Registered Republicans amount to 427,803, or 21.9 percent, and unaffiliated voters number the largest chunk, 867,761, about 44.4 percent.
Last night, Lamont got a bit more than half of the Democrats to vote for him. His supporters will contend that Democrats will abandon Lieberman in droves. (I'm somewhat skeptical - if you're motivated enough to show up on primary day and vote for him against Lamont in August, either because you really like Lieberman or because you really don't like Lamont, what will change your mind in the 90 days until Election Day?)
Let's give Lamont just about the best case scenario. (For the sake of this exercise assuming turnout will be roughly equal percentage turnout rate among Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated. If anyone has a plausible argument that one of these groups won't show up on Election Day, let me know.) Let's say a significant number of Lieberman supporters abandon him now that he's an independent. Let's say about 20 percent, and let's assume that they all decide to support Lamont.
That gives Lamont just under 60 percent of the Democratic vote, about 20 percent of the electorate. Lieberman is left with just over 40 percent of the Democratic vote, about 13.3 percent of the electorate.
Now let's be really generous regarding the unaffiliated. Let's assume that 45 percent of the unaffiliated support the Democratic nominee, Lamont. (I think this is generous, since Lamont's argument is that he's a true-blue Democrat, less independent and less centrist.) This gives him another 19.9 percent of the total electorate. Let's give Lieberman, who's always done well among this group, 55 percent, and let's assume the Republican candidate, Alan Schlesinger, gets none, giving Joe 24.4 percent of the electorate. (Yes, I'm underestimating independent/noaffiliated support for Schlesinger, but probably not by much.)
This brings us to a 39.9 percent to 37.7 percent lead of Lamont over Lieberman. Joe would need to make up that 2.2 percent from among the 21 percent of the state voters who are registered Republicans. In other words, Lieberman would need to carry about 10.4 percent of the state's GOP voters to eke out a win (and presuming that Lamont does not get any significant support from Connecticut Republicans).
I imagine Joe can win 10.4 percent of Republicans in his sleep. Earlier in the year, 75 percent of Connecticut Republicans were willing to give Lieberman another term.
To win the Senate race, Lamont needs either a) more than 20 percent of Lieberman's supporters to abandon him and switch to Lamont b) more than 45 percent of unaffiliated voters to support him or c) less than 11 percent of Republicans to vote for Lieberman. I suppose yesterday's results show that things can change quickly, but right now those scenarios look awfully unlikely.
Interesting analysis, but the proof will have to wait until November. Until then, expect MSM polls to tell us that Lamont leads by 60% to 40% or even more (of all KOS members polled!)
Lamont actually got only 10% of the total possible normal Democratic vote.
There's a doggone good chance that 10% is where he maxes out!
So everybody is writing off the Pub?
As long as we're making predictions, I predict that Lieberman will win, and announce a party change to the GOP the day the new Congress is sworn in.
Should Lieberman bring in fellow tribe member Dickie "Toe Sucker" Morris to help triangulate???
I predict that Lieberman will win, but he'll remain Independent with a grudge against the MoveOn crowd.
Yes, you are right. Dickie did work for Lamont. It would be even richer for him to work for Lieberman.
Joe needs to run as Joe. And yes, Schlesinger is a wasted vote. 9% as we speak. I know a lot of Freepers consider Joe as good as a traitor for simply being a Democrat, but he has always struck me as a man of conviction and one of the most honest members of congress. Go ahead, flame away. We could do worse with a Chafee RINO any day. Or Specter. Or Snowe. Or Collins. I would put money on him for November. I think the house is in jeopardy, tho.
The right needs to screw its head on! I am speaking as conservative here! So he voted for the war. Are we going to have another war vote?
No!
We don't need his stupid vote for the war anymore, so throw him under the bus and forget him!
Who hasn't Morris worked for?
The RINO is corrupt.
Actually I would prefer for Lamont to narrowly win. I am sorry McKinney lost in Georgia. The crats need good representation like hat.Or maybe the Republicans need for the crats to have good representation like that.
Does anyone remember when Liberman was running for vice-president. He changed most of his views to agree
with nutty Gore. He has no core beliefs other than
being in the Senate. He will not become a conservative.
He is jewish so he agrees w/conservatives on this one
issue.
Everybody who runs for VP advances the views of the front runner.
Great! A new RINO
(Go Israel, Go! Slap 'Em Down Hezbullies.)
(Go Israel, Go! Slap 'Em Down Hezbullies.)
I want to know how Lamont got 15,000 new dems to register to vote for him and whether it was legal. Were they paid?
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