The Shiite Revival - Teh Belmont Club
*******************************AN EXCERPT ********************************
The Wall Street Journal describes the theories of a rising academic who believes that the central driver of instability in the Middle East is no longer Arab nationalism. It is the Islamic schism. Unfortunately most of this article is behind a subscription wall. But the excerpts below give the gist of the argument.
This is the big one folks. Forget negotiation. It's a fight to the finish. America, Israel, better fight it now because it will only be worse later. Europe, if you have any guts at all, fight it with us.
I would have never done what the Iranians did here. They basically played one of their best cards to take attention off their nuclear program. There is no evidence that the world powers will ever get together to stop Iran from getting nukes.
If I was playing this real world game of Stratego, I would have held Hezzbollah and their 13,000 rockets for a response to an attack, either by Israel or any other power.
I predict if he rides in an a horse against today's military weaponry, he's in for a severe ass whuppin'.
About the only thing he will be able to do is take all his minions to paradise.
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"What this means now is that the Tehran regime is neither surprised nor intimidated by the scale of the Israeli response to the provocations in Gaza and Lebanon. Tehran expects that the missiles they have deployed in Syria and Lebanon, once they walk them like a barrage onto Tel Aviv, will force the Israelis into bombing the launchers and depots in Syria. The Iranians expect that when Syria is attacked, the other Arab states, such as Shia- dominated Iraq or Bahrain or Shia-fraught Saudi Arabia, will bend to their will. (And the secular, non-Shia tyrannies such as Egypt and Pakistan, will heed the call of alliance from the Egyptian al-Zawahiri.) Tehran expects that America will not be able to remain out of the fighting once Israel is battered and isolated, once the United Nations Security Council is provoked by Iran's expected quitting of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, perhaps in August..."
Great post, thanks Ernest!
bump
Better men have tried.
Knock out Iran's oil producing capability and see how far they get with anything
TCSdaily.com: "PROFILES IN SURROGACY" by Gordon Cucullu (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "We may be seeing something similar today. Ever more analysts are convinced that Iran is using the current fighting between Hezbollah and Israel as a test bed for new tactics and weaponry as well as a deliberate provocation to incite further popular Muslim anger against the Jewish state. In an example of what looks like a 21st century version of testing prior to an attack, it is now fairly certain that Iranian scientists, engineers, and military and political leaders attended the North Korean missile testing that occurred the first week of July, and some have suggested that Iran sponsored and paid for the testing. Could it have been a live simulation of tactics that Iran intends to use against Israel via Lebanon?") (August 1, 2006)
JIHAD WATCH.org (IranFocus): Tehran - ARTICLE SNIPPET: "The new garrison will be named after Nader Mahdavi, an IRGC naval commander who died in a suicide attack on an American naval vessel in 1987, Samadi said. The report said that more that 55,000 volunteers for martyrdom-seeking operations had been registered so far by the organisation, which also calls itself Esteshhadioun, or martyrdom-seekers." (May 24, 2006)
stepping back in time...MEMRI.org - Special Dispatch Series - No. 1018: "IRANIAN ANIMATED FILM FOR CHILDREN PROMOTES SUICIDE ATTACKS" (SNIPPET: "The following are excerpts from an Iranian animated movie for children, which aired on IRIB 3 TV on October 28, 2005, at 8 a.m. Iran time. To view this clip visit: http://memritv.org/search.asp?ACT=S9&P1=906 ") (November 3, 2005)
stepping back in time...MEMRI.org - Special Dispatch Series - No. 929: "Al-Arabiya TV Report: Iranian Volunteer Suicide Bomber Organization of 40,000 'Time Bombs; Recruited to Target Americans in Iraq and Israel" (July 6, 2005)
stepping back in time...MEMRI TV.org - Transcript - Clip No. 736: "ON THE IRANIAN MOVEMENT OF 'MARTYRDOM SEEKERS'" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "TRANSCRIPT SNIPPET: "The following are excerpts from a report about the movement of "martyrdom seekers" in Iran. Al-Arabiya TV aired this report on July 2, 2005.)
HAARETZ.com: Jakarta - "ISLAMIC GROUP: 200 MILITANTS SENT TO BOMB 'ISRAEL'S VITAL INTERESTS'" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Western countries such as the United States and Britain, as well as businesses, could be targeted unless they cease supporting Israel, he said. Didu said the group was watching Australia's position on the Middle East conflict. "If John Howard makes a statement in support of Israel, he will be a target," Didu said. More than 3,000 people have signed up for the mission, and 217 people from Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore have been dispatched abroad so far, he said.") (August 4, 2006)
News.YAHOO.com (AP) - Photo Caption: "Indonesian Muslims brandish toy guns during an anti-Israel protest outside the U.S. Embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia, Friday, Aug. 4, 2006. Hundreds of hard-line Muslims protested ongoing Israeli attacks on Lebanon in the Indonesian capital Friday, calling for the fall of the Jewish state and an end to killing of their brothers in the Middle East. (AP Photo/ Achmad Ibrahim)") (August 4, 2006)
JPOST.com - THE JERUSALEM POST: "SLEEPER HIZBULLAH CELLS OVERSEAS HAVE 'REAWAKENED'" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Hizbullah "sleeper" terror cells set up outside Lebanon with Iranian assistance have been put on standby The Jerusalem Post learned on Sunday, and are likely planning attacks against Jewish and Israeli targets throughout the world. The Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) confirmed to the Post Sunday night that it had instructed embassies, consulates and Jewish institutions it was responsible for abroad to raise their level of awareness in light of the conflict in the North.") (Updated July 23, 2006 21:37)
ZOMBIE TIME.com: "PROTEST AT THE ISRAELI CONSULATE IN SAN FRANCISCO, July 13, 2006" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Pro-Palestinian protesters: "Black, red, brown, white! Black, red, brown, white! We support Hezbollah's fight! We support Hezbollah's fight! We support Hezbollah's fight! We support Hezbollah's fight! Black, red, green, blue! Black, red, green, blue! Black, red, green, blue! Black, red, green, blue! We support Hamas too! We support Hamas too! We support Hamas too! We support Hamas too! Viva viva Palestina! Viva viva Palestina! Viva viva Palestina! Viva viva Palestina! Viva viva Palestina! Viva viva Palestina! Viva viva Palestina! Viva viva Palestina! Black, red, green, white! Black, red, brown, white! Black, red, green, white! Black, red, brown, white! We support Hezbollah's fight! We support Hezbollah's fight! We support Hezbollah's fight! We support Hezbollah's fight! Black, red, green, blue! Black, red, green, blue! Black, red, green, blue! Black, red, green, blue! We support Hamas too! We support Hamas too! We support Hamas too! We support Hamas too!"")
UPI.com: Washington - "HEZBOLLAH MAY ACTIVATE SLEEPER CELLS" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "The New York Post, quoting sources, said the Lebanon-based fundamentalist Islamic group may be planning to activate sleeper cells in New York or other big cities. The investigation is being carried out by the FBI and the Justice Department. Quoting law-enforcement and intelligence officials, the newspaper said about a dozen hard-core supporters of Hezbollah have been identified in recent weeks as operating in the New York area. The Iranian Mission to the United Nations also is being watched. But U.S. officials also told the newspaper there is no intelligence information pointing to an imminent attack by Hezbollah.") (May 22, 2006) (Note: This url may expire.)
UN.org - UNITED NATIONS INTERIM FORCE IN LEBANON (UNIFIL): Naqoura - "PRESS RELEASE" (PRESS RELEASE SNIPPET: "There were five other incidents of firing close to UN positions from the Israeli side. It was also reported that Hezbollah fired from the vicinity of five UN positions at Alma Ash Shab, At Tiri, Bayt Yahoun, Brashit, and Tibnin.") (July 28, 2006)
UN.org: Naqoura - "UNITED NATIONS INTERIM FORCE IN LEBANON (UNIFIL) - Press Release (PRESS RELEASE SNIPPET: "Another UN position of the Ghanaian battalion in the area of Marwahin in the western sector was also directly hit by one mortar round from the Hezbollah side last night. The round did not explode, and there were no casualties or material damage. Another 5 incidents of firing close to UN positions from the Israeli side were reported yesterday. It was also reported that Hezbollah fired from the vicinity of four UN positions at Alma ash Shab, Tibnin, Brashit, and At Tiri. All UNIFIL positions remain occupied and maintained by the troops.") (July 26, 2006)
ADNKI.com (AKI): Rome - "TERRORISM: HEZBOLLAH POISED FOR ATTACKS ABROAD SAY GERMAN SECRET SERVICES" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "'Sleeper' cells belonging to militant Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah are present in Western Europe, Latin America and in southeast Asia and been ordered to be ready to carry out terrorist attacks should Israel prolong its military offensive against Lebanon, according to unnamed German intelligence sources. A similar alarm was raised two days ago by Israel's Shin Bet security service and Israeli embassies and institutions have been put on high alert. Hezbollah reportedly has sleeper cells in more than 20 countries, including Italy, and is alleged to have already been involved in several spectacular attacks.") (July 25, 2006)
Zec 12:6 In that day will I make the governors of Judah like an hearth of fire among the wood, and like a torch of fire in a sheaf; and they shall devour all the people round about, on the right hand and on the left: and Jerusalem shall be inhabited again in her own place, even in Jerusalem.
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There failed not ought of any good thing which the LORD had
spoken unto the house of Israel; all came to pass. (Joshua 21:45)
Letter To The President In Support Of Israel ~
'Final Solution,' Phase 2 ~
Warnings ~
"The West has given more significance to the myth of the genocide of the Jews, even more significant than God, religion, and the prophets...."Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
The Holocaust Chronicle ~
" ... It's time we recognized the nature of the conflict. It's total war and we are all involved. Nobody on our side is exempted because of age, gender, or handicap. The Islamofacists have stolen childhood from the world."FReeper Retief
"Palestine is the wrong name for their State. It should be called Anarchy."FReeper sgtbono2002
"Then let's wait and see what the Arabs do after they take Gaza. There's nothing like Arab reality to break up a Jewish fantasy."FReeper Noachian
A student told his professor he was going to "Palestine" to "fight for freedom, peace and justice,"Orwellian leftist code words that mean "murder Jews."
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I believe this would significantly improve our strategic position in the War on Terror.
We should destroy the Iranian oil industry. By Bombing all oil transportation facilities, pipelines, storage tanks, tanker trucks, rolling stock, refinerys etc
we can cripple the funding of numerous terrorist organizations, Hezbollah, Hamas, Sadrs militia, Syria, as well as make it more difficult for Iran to buy missiles and such from North Korea, China, and Russia.
It would remove Irans threat that if we attack they will shut off the oil. Making the threat ridiculous and demonstrating that they are a single product state and without oil, and no other product that the world wants, they are nothing. Additionally, by declaring that we will destroy any reconstituting oil industry as long as the Mullacracy remains in charge, we can focus the Iranians blame for the situation, on the Theocracy and their support of Terrorism.
This will also bring home to all the other oil producing countries like Venezuela, Libya, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, etc
that they are very vulnerable to the same tactic.
In addition, this will gain us time for the Iraqis to stand on their own, and free up troops we would need if we have to go into Iran, North Korea or somewhere else.
Sure the price of gas will rise, but this will also demonstrate to the world that the USA is not in Iraq for the Oil, and the onus can be shifted on to the Democrats for not allowing more domestic production.
Its not the control of the spice but the power to destroy the spice that is the real power.
It has recently been said that the nuclear production facilities in Iran are so deep underground that we cant reach them with conventional weapons. Perhaps so, but maybe we can starve those facilities of funds. Nuclear weapons are terribly expensive to build, and if Iran now needs all its money to repair vital life supporting infrastructure, it may have to slow or stop its attempt to build an atomic bomb.
Finally, Iran is a state sponsor of Terrorists, it must be punished, and it must be seen to be punished. Irans continued sponsorship of terror is a slap in Americas and President Bushs face, and it must be answered.
The following was written in response to an objection I received about having to pay more for fuel if this strategy was followed.
I think you are overly concerned about the economic considerations, and not concerned enough about the need to prosecute the War on Terror to the utmost.
1. The US has a full Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 700 million Barrels, and we aren't the only nation with an SPR. What good is it if you never use it? The average price paid on that 700 million barrels was $27, so the nation would actually make a profit selling it now.
2. The only reason the US isn't energy independent now is because of political factors. 2 Trillion Barrels of oil in oil shale (see www.oiltechinc.com). Any organic matter can be turned into fuel (see www.powerenergy.com). The US would and should be using much more Nuclear power if it wasn't for the Ecofreaks. There are also many areas in the US that are now off limits to drilling. All it takes is the political will to develop all of these. Higher fuel prices will provide that political pressure.
3. Iran is using diplomatic processes, just like the Nazi's before them. Talking is a waste of our time.
4. Iran subsidizes gas at $.10 a gallon, so by destroying the Iranian oil industry not only do we instantly remove 20% of their GDP. We put them all on foot, and in the dark.
5. The mullahs want to take their world back to the 7th century, we should assist them.
Iran exports 2.5 million barrels of oil a day, Iranian as well as the rest of the Persian gulf oil producers, produce what is called heavy sour crude which typically sell for 20%-25% less than the benchmark sweet light crude quoted on the spot markets. So, with that understanding we can roughly calculate the gross income Irans economy generates from oil exports. At a price of $75 Barrel Iran will get 80% of that price for its low grade crude, or $60. $60 x $2.5 million barrels x 365 days = $54.75 billion. Now from the CIA world fact book we can see that Iran has a GNP of $564 billion. So by destroying Irans oil industry their GDP is cut by 10% just from the lost of exports, but the damage is much deeper than that. Iran subsidizes gasoline at $.10 a gallon and Iran consumes 1.425 million barrels of oil a day. With the oil industry destroyed the cars, trucks, trains, and power plants no longer run. That means no machinery, no electricity, and no modern economy. I cant estimate what Irans GDP would decline to, but the poorest nation on earth still has cars and electricity. I think much of the population would either revolt or start walking for the boarders. They couldnt import oil because we would destroy tankers, pipelines, and rolling stock.