Posted on 07/14/2006 9:25:23 PM PDT by LibWhacker
Islamic group bids to fill power vacuum But risks underestimating Israeli resolve
JERUSALEM—There are multiple reasons why Hezbollah chose precisely this moment to throw an already turbulent Middle East into cartwheels of even greater turmoil.
But for most observers, none stands larger than the militant Shiite Muslim movement's overarching quest to elevate itself as the pre-eminent defender of the pan-Arab realm.
Whatever secondary reasons may come into play — and there is no question that for Hezbollah's sponsors in Syria and Iran the new crisis presents a convenient diversion from the critical issues confronting them — Arab-Muslim pride is paramount.
Scan the Arab press response to Wednesday's cross-border abductions of two Israeli soldiers and you will soon get the idea. The London-based daily Al-Quds al-Arabi cast the Hezbollah raid as "Arab-Islamic solidarity in its brightest form." The Saudi-financed Al-Hayat hailed it the best imaginable answer to Israel's "brutal terrorism in Gaza," proclaiming Hezbollah's expertise in "deterring the Israeli insolence."
The Syrian propaganda sheet Al-Thawra poured praise on Israel's "humiliation" as a tonic for the bruised Arab soul.
With Iraq sliding powerlessly toward civil war and the Palestinian Gaza Strip a mess as never before, Hezbollah seized a moment where intent, opportunity and impact blended for maximum synchronicity.
"Put the Hezbollah attacks in the context of history: Gamal Abdul Nasser the great Arab nationalist is gone, (Iraq's) Saddam Hussein is crushed, (Libya's) Moammar Gadhafi is domesticated and (the late Palestinian leader) Yasser Arafat was quarantined," said Dan Schueftan, a senior fellow at the Shalem Centre, a Jerusalem-based research centre. "Everyone is gone. So by acting now, Hezbollah is exploiting that vacuum to establish itself, at the service of Iran, as the last hope for radicals in the Middle East."
There is a huge gamble involved in Hezbollah's play — the bet that sooner or later Israel will submit to its ransom demands, as it has done in the past, and leave the group's Beirut-based leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah as the saviour of Arab dignity.
But the bellicose mood gathering momentum throughout Israel suggests that this time Hezbollah's bet is sorely misplaced.
"This is not arm-wresting or a test of false machismo. It is a fateful battle: a victory over Israel, even the symbolic-propaganda type ... will release demons across the entire Middle East," commentator Sever Plotzker wrote yesterday on the front page of Yedioth Ahronoth, Israel's largest-circulation daily.
"Preventing their victory is absolutely imperative and non-negotiable."
Eyal Zisser, dean of Middle Eastern History at Tel Aviv University, said, "The tone of voice in Jerusalem indicates that someone has decided to tear the mask from his face. Nasrallah does not want an all-out war, but he may no longer be in control of events."
Memories of the 18 years the IDF spent in southern Lebanon are still too fresh
For Israel, the crucial strategic priority now is to hit back, but not in such a way as not to entangle itself in yet another hopeless ground invasion, let alone a spillover into Syria or Iran.
Memories of the 18 miserable years the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) spent in southern Lebanon, ending in unilateral withdrawal in 2000, are still too fresh.
Instead, Israel's military leaders are expected to continue hitting primarily from the air every installation the forces can find bearing Hezbollah colours.
The end result of that aerial bombardment, expected to play out over the next several days, is meant to erase any trace of Hezbollah missile sites weaponry within range of Israeli towns and cities.
When the dust settles, the new status quo will no longer feature Hezbollah watchtowers within sight of the Israeli border. And if the captured soldiers are still alive at that point, Israel may be persuaded to cease its fire.
"Hezbollah made the mistake of thinking an untested Israeli leadership would repeat the past and back down," said Meir Javandanfar of the Middle East Analysis Company.
"But what they didn't realize is that the overwhelming majority of Israel's generals are not only ready to fight, but ready to take some bruises along the way. And they are not going to leave the ring until Hezbollah has a very bloody nose."
Javandanfar, an expert on Iran, put little stock in Israel's warning last night that Hezbollah was attempting to turn over to Tehran the captured Israel soldiers.
"Israel is trying to raise the general international concern about how out of hand the situation is getting. But if you look at Hezbollah's history over the past 10 years, handing over the soldiers would be a devastating mistake. It would prove to the Lebanese they are charging up their credit card for someone else's interests," he said.
There is yet one massive error Israel may commit as it wages war on Hezbollah in the coming days.
It may repeat the errors of a similar onslaught in 1996, when Israeli warplanes were directed to attack business interests throughout Lebanon in its campaign against Hezbollah.
The intent was to motivate neutral Lebanese Christians and Sunni Muslims to rise up against Hezbollah, but the reaction was opposite.
"The only thing that will save Hezbollah from themselves at this point is a huge Israeli military overreaction," Javandanfar told the Star.
"Israel needs to attack Hezbollah and Hezbollah alone. If it goes beyond, it runs the big risk of energizing all the Lebanese against Israel."
Anyone see any similarities between what is happening today and what happened prior to WWII?
Hezbollah may have overplayed its hand
Was this headline written by Captain Obvious?!?
More like suicide. An act more really ought to think through before attempting.
Victor Davis Hansen was on the John Gibson show and he compared it to the period in the 1930's....it was a very somber moment.
Imagine feeling cultural pride about a terrorist organization conducting a successful kidnapping! Arab-Muslims -- a sicker, more pathetic bunch would be impossible to fathom.
May have overplayed it's hand??
there's the understatement of the year...
Wishful thinking on steroids. There's a far greater chance that Nasrallah will be dead by the time I finish typing this sentence.
5.56mm
Victor Davis Hansen was on the John Gibson show and he compared it to the period in the 1930's....it was a very somber moment.
I didn't catch that, and don't understand comparing the present situation to the pre-World War 2 period... Care to enlighten me?
Short answer....Europe is paralyzed....The Left here has basically got the Republicans....being very cautious...no real World Leader taking on Iran....much like the situation was with Hitler....he explained much better than I did...of course we now have the UN..../barf.
OK Thanks.
I suggest Israel practice restraint while dealing with these poor hezbullah fellows...
......hold 'em down while you kick the $hit out of them!
"Hizbullah leader declares all-out war on Israel" Middle East Times
"Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah declared July 14 that Hezbollah would strike "beyond Haifa and what is beyond, beyond Haifa" in an all-out war against Israel." Strategic Forecasting Inc.
"Nasrallah says ready for 'open war' with Israel" Jerusalem Post, Israel
The quote is from Eyal Zisser, dean of Middle Eastern History at Tel Aviv University.
Yeah a lot of this article is left wing western "thinking".
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