Mexico election too close to call (exit poll released)

Reuters ^ | 7/2/06 | Kieran Murray and Alistair Bell

[lauriehelds]

Kieran Murray and Alistair Bell

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico's presidential election is too close to call between a leftist anti-poverty campaigner and the conservative ruling party candidate locked in a tie, a respected exit poll said on Sunday.

The extremely close vote raised fears of a political crisis if any of the main candidates challenge the results and call street protests.

Pre-election polls had showed Felipe Calderon of the ruling party and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the left-wing former mayor of Mexico City, in a virtual tie. Exit polls from Mexico's two main television station and the El Universal newspaper said they could not declare a winner.

El Universal said the race was between Lopez Obrador and Calderon. Neither of the TV stations mentioned Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which ruled Mexico for most of the 20th century.

The Federal Electoral Institute was expected to announce official results at around 11 p.m. If it is unable to call a winner, Mexico could face days or weeks of legal wrangling and protests similar to the fight that followed the U.S. presidential election in 2000.

[conservative in nyc]

Yet, the puter projects Calderon's lead will go up a couple of tenths of a percent, and his absolute total lead will end up at about 435,000.

That's because the NE and NW are PAN territory, where the PRI runs second and the socialist PRD runs a very distant third. And those areas have the bulk (55%) of the remaining precincts.

I just noticed today that the data was actually there for us to do projections based on sub-state regional votes outstanding. But I think my Excel would have choked if I tried that last night. The by region projections pretty much tracked the by state projections anyway (but forecasted more votes would be cast). I can even guess which precincts are still out, but the information is useless without a map.

[La Enchiladita]

I really disliked Tehuantepec when I went there in the '70s. It's a "matriarchal" village or sumthin'. Got out muy pronto.

You --- what?!! --- in Oaxaca? A near lynching? Was that in the '80s or '90s?

How awful. Oaxaca was just fine by me in the '70s: great market. I especially liked the beach on the Oaxaca south coast, Puerto Angel.