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Mexico election too close to call (exit poll released)
Reuters ^ | 7/2/06 | Kieran Murray and Alistair Bell

Posted on 07/02/2006 6:24:13 PM PDT by lauriehelds

Kieran Murray and Alistair Bell

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico's presidential election is too close to call between a leftist anti-poverty campaigner and the conservative ruling party candidate locked in a tie, a respected exit poll said on Sunday.

The extremely close vote raised fears of a political crisis if any of the main candidates challenge the results and call street protests.

Pre-election polls had showed Felipe Calderon of the ruling party and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the left-wing former mayor of Mexico City, in a virtual tie. Exit polls from Mexico's two main television station and the El Universal newspaper said they could not declare a winner.

El Universal said the race was between Lopez Obrador and Calderon. Neither of the TV stations mentioned Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which ruled Mexico for most of the 20th century.

The Federal Electoral Institute was expected to announce official results at around 11 p.m. If it is unable to call a winner, Mexico could face days or weeks of legal wrangling and protests similar to the fight that followed the U.S. presidential election in 2000.

(Excerpt) Read more at today.reuters.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Mexico; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: calderon; elections; exitpolls; mexicanelection; mexico; obrador; pollsschmolls
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To: Heartofsong83

Witch state is Mexico City in?


181 posted on 07/02/2006 9:15:04 PM PDT by Husker24
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To: ArmstedFragg
At this rate, Obrador would ease by Calderon at about the 90 percent mark in the count.

Luckily, that's a bit too crude. I have been keeping track of Calderon's lead in thousands of votes (instead of %) and it keeps increasing with every update. The votes coming in the last minutes have been +1% to +2% Calderon.
182 posted on 07/02/2006 9:15:27 PM PDT by AdrianR
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To: GeronL

Wednesday is what IFE's president said as official date after every precinct has been cheched vote by vote. The current numbers are quick-stats results, that happened to be inside of statistical error and are therefore untrusty.


183 posted on 07/02/2006 9:16:09 PM PDT by Codename - Ron Benjamin (I'm gonna sing the doom song now. Pre-emptive, multi-tasking, interrupt control!)
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To: Husker24

Federal District. (There is also the province of Mexico but that contains only suburbs, not the city itself.)


184 posted on 07/02/2006 9:16:36 PM PDT by AdrianR
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To: Husker24

like DC it is not part of a state.

Mexico City is a federal district.

Distrito Federal.


185 posted on 07/02/2006 9:16:40 PM PDT by Reaganez
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34.2% in and Calderon continues to lead by about 366,000 votes.


186 posted on 07/02/2006 9:19:19 PM PDT by LdSentinal
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To: lauriehelds

AMLO (the socialist) has just said "We win". Says he has at least 500,000 votes more according with quick results (?).


187 posted on 07/02/2006 9:19:49 PM PDT by Codename - Ron Benjamin (I'm gonna sing the doom song now. Pre-emptive, multi-tasking, interrupt control!)
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To: Heartofsong83

The PRI is dead after this election. I was gonna stay in BC this weekend, but I was too tired to be down there during an election.


188 posted on 07/02/2006 9:20:34 PM PDT by Central Scrutiniser ("You can't really dust for vomit.")
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To: AdrianR

Would you happen to have the numbers from about the 15 percent point and again around 25? I'd be interested in running the percentages to see if they track the ones reported.


189 posted on 07/02/2006 9:20:35 PM PDT by ArmstedFragg
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To: Codename - Ron Benjamin

HAHA - those phantom "provisional ballots"????


190 posted on 07/02/2006 9:20:48 PM PDT by Heartofsong83
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To: Codename - Ron Benjamin

Yep, AMLO declaring tentative victory

when all votes counted we will win...

probably right...sheesh


191 posted on 07/02/2006 9:21:19 PM PDT by Will_Zurmacht
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To: Codename - Ron Benjamin

They can keep counting until Obrador wins?


192 posted on 07/02/2006 9:21:28 PM PDT by GeronL
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To: Reaganez

Obrador is declaring irreversible victory as I post.

Good Lord.


193 posted on 07/02/2006 9:21:46 PM PDT by Reaganez
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To: Codename - Ron Benjamin

And when Calderon wins, he will say the CIA engineered it, to get all his people fired up.


194 posted on 07/02/2006 9:21:52 PM PDT by Husker24
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To: Reaganez

One more Excel projection:

Calderon 0.409482267
Dinosaur 0.210760158
Socialist 0.379757575

The projected % gap is now bigger than the current one. The Socialist regions are now ahead in counting.


195 posted on 07/02/2006 9:22:17 PM PDT by AdrianR
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To: Reaganez
With 32% in, the projection:
Calderon         Dinosaur       Socialist
0.379051996	0.194469356	0.351280707

42% of the vote is in from the Federal District. There is a HUGE red-blue divide in Mexico. It is STUNNING. 

Here is the vote from Tabasco state with 31% in:
Calderon        Dinosaur        Socialist
0.03800235	0.376377735	0.585619914


196 posted on 07/02/2006 9:22:38 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Will_Zurmacht
..LOPEZ OBRADOR ES UN IRRESPONSABLE..
197 posted on 07/02/2006 9:24:32 PM PDT by Tribune7
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To: Torie

Any idea what % of Nuevo Leon (Monterrey) has reported? That's a highly-populated PAN stronghold.


198 posted on 07/02/2006 9:24:52 PM PDT by nj26 (Border Security=Homeland Security... Put Our Military on the Border! (Proud2BNRA))
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To: ArmstedFragg

Based on actual vote count in each of the five regions, and the adjusting for the percentage or precincts counted in each of the five regions, to reach an end total. Yes, I should do it by State, but that would really freak out my excel speadsheet. It is very irritable tonight. I am going to sue Greg Gates ASAP.


199 posted on 07/02/2006 9:25:16 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Tribune7

if it's close I think he might just "find" the votes he claims to have


200 posted on 07/02/2006 9:25:47 PM PDT by Will_Zurmacht
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