Mexico election too close to call (exit poll released)

Reuters ^ | 7/2/06 | Kieran Murray and Alistair Bell

[lauriehelds]

Kieran Murray and Alistair Bell

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico's presidential election is too close to call between a leftist anti-poverty campaigner and the conservative ruling party candidate locked in a tie, a respected exit poll said on Sunday.

The extremely close vote raised fears of a political crisis if any of the main candidates challenge the results and call street protests.

Pre-election polls had showed Felipe Calderon of the ruling party and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the left-wing former mayor of Mexico City, in a virtual tie. Exit polls from Mexico's two main television station and the El Universal newspaper said they could not declare a winner.

El Universal said the race was between Lopez Obrador and Calderon. Neither of the TV stations mentioned Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which ruled Mexico for most of the 20th century.

The Federal Electoral Institute was expected to announce official results at around 11 p.m. If it is unable to call a winner, Mexico could face days or weeks of legal wrangling and protests similar to the fight that followed the U.S. presidential election in 2000.

[Torie]

My excel is on the fritz. When I try to copy and paste, my computer becomes unstable. So I guess it will be just eye balling from here on out.

[ArmstedFragg]

So they don't require a real majority

I guess they follow our lead.

[Reaganez]

Can someone post those spreadsheat projections based on the new numbers?

Thanks.

[GeronL]

If the vote for OTHER is beigger than the difference between the winning PAN and losing PRD. Those PRDers are going to be kicking the rear ends of those OTHER parties.

[goldstategop]

Its going to be a down to the wire finish. Not really a landslide for the winner.

(The Palestinian terrorist regime is the crisis and Israel's fist is the answer.)

[GeronL]

lol... and you posting that request to ME?? shirly you jest =o)

[GeronL]

If Obrador loses they will spend the next 6 years trying to shut down those minor commie-type parties.

[Reaganez]

Nope, just a general post to whomever.

Yours was the last reply so I clicked reply there.

And my name ain't Shirly. LOL.

[Torie]

Perhaps the last projection based on 27% of the votes in, per my failing excel:

Calderon        Dinosaur        Socialist
0.411425872	0.209350793	0.379223335

[Reaganez]

thanks Torie.

[Timedrifter]

It seems like the left always makes a strong showing in the final 20% of the vote counted. It never fails that the left always holds back votes from jurisdictions they control in order to see if its possible to manufacture enough votes to squeak by to victory without being too obvious. Late reporting districts are normally left leaning regardless if its Florida, Germany, Italy and probably Mexico.

[Codename - Ron Benjamin]

IFE (federal election's institute) president Carlos Ugalde about to give an official pronouncement now.

And it is...

(Something like) "After 7281 precincts, 90-something% of a good sample, it's safe to say there's no posibility to know a sure winner". Will have to wait until Wednesday.

Meanwhile, PRD on the Zocalo has about 3000 people calling Lopez "Presidente". Oh boy.

[nj26]

Calderon: 38.5%
Obrador: 35.7%
Madroza: 19.1%

30.0% reporting

[AdrianR]

The new projection:

Calderon 0.410717211
Dinosaur 0.209667398
Socialist 0.379615391

[ArmstedFragg]

I haven't Excelled it, but from a very crude standpoint:

Calderon has lost half a percent in the last 10 percent of the count, Obrador has picked up two tenths of a percent in the same time period. We have roughly 70 percent left. At this rate, Obrador would ease by Calderon at about the 90 percent mark in the count.

Mind, there's no consideration for which districts are leaning which way in the above, just some raw grade school math.

[Torie]

Here is the projection based on the same numbers, with minor parties included to dilute the percentages:

Calderon        Dinosaur        Socialist
0.380403994	0.193565556	0.350629558

[Heartofsong83]

Calderon Madrazo Obrador Other
    Total Nacional 4,709,977 2,341,973 4,367,066 597,615
     Porcentaje 38.48% 19.13% 35.68% 4.88%

    Aguascalientes 69,130 31,863 28,595 8,602
    Baja California 31,842 14,087 14,935 4,168
    Baja California Sur 4,497 2,993 7,304 751
    Campeche 18,205 12,617 18,489 2,125
    Coahuila 188,729 103,671 99,507 20,395
    Colima 11,523 6,889 6,048 931
    Chiapas 61,935 70,515 121,300 9,666
    Chihuahua 135,033 84,776 60,153 16,138
    Distrito Federal 496,837 150,747 1,006,801 79,723
    Durango 88,312 39,834 41,548 8,967
    Guanajuato 384,187 105,338 95,090 27,427
    Guerrero 51,141 58,587 138,600 12,246
    Hidalgo 65,656 50,885 99,052 12,637
    Jalisco 481,981 214,483 182,953 52,472
    México 609,004 311,141 782,033 107,815
    Michoacán 190,403 80,843 203,900 18,842
    Morelos 77,069 34,934 103,039 14,078
    Nayarit 8,618 15,350 22,584 2,230
    Nuevo León 413,354 204,343 124,961 41,819
    Oaxaca 51,104 56,952 122,477 7,887
    Puebla 248,936 103,659 183,204 29,275
    Querétaro 108,269 33,792 52,864 9,866
    Quintana Roo 41,183 27,825 43,197 5,336
    San Luis Potosí 125,066 36,667 51,296 11,558
    Sinaloa 90,440 55,893 79,775 9,847
    Sonora 16,327 4,676 8,186 1,252
    Tabasco 7,762 75,800 117,621 2,307
    Tamaulipas 180,390 100,041 119,868 20,402
    Tlaxcala 30,249 13,377 39,697 4,934
    Veracruz 270,252 155,456 297,397 33,640
    Yucatán 98,714 56,709 37,684 8,412
    Zacatecas 53,829 27,230 56,908 11,867

[GeronL]

The PRD is moving their fraud machine forward now..

wait until Wednesday??? huh??

[Heartofsong83]

States that Calderon is leading in: Aguascalientes*, Baja California, Coahuila, Colima, Chihuahua, Durango, Guanajuato*, Jalisco*, Nuevo León*, Puebla, Querétaro*, San Luis Potosí*, Sinaloa, Sonora*, Tamaulipas, Yucatan

States that Obrador is leading in: Baja California Sur, Campeche, Chiapas, Distrito Federal*, Guerrero*, Hidalgo, Mexico, Michoacán, Morelos, Nayarit, Oaxaca*, Quintana Roo, Tabasco*, Tlaxcala, Veracruz, Zacatecas

States that Madrazo is leading in: NONE

*indicates leading with a majority

Flipped states: NONE since last check

[ArmstedFragg]

Based on the actual vote count from each district, or on registration?