Posted on 05/25/2006 7:14:53 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
Russian President Vladimir Putin has inadvertently spotlighted one of today's momentous mysteries: collapsing birthrates in industrialized countries. Putin proposed that Russia pay women to have children to remedy a "critical" population outlook. Actually, he might have said "desperate." In 2000 Russia's population totaled almost 147 million; Putin says it's declining by 700,000 a year. With plausible assumptions, the U.S. Census Bureau projects it at 111 million in 2050. The median age (half the population above, half below) would be almost 50, up from 38 now. Could this Russia maintain a strong economy, national optimism or a capable military?
Russia's case, though extreme, isn't isolated. There's no more population "explosion." In wealthier countries, motherhood is going out of style and plunging birthrates portend population loss. This is a hugely significant development, even if we don't fully understand the causes -- 30 years ago experts didn't predict it -- or the consequences. One way or another, the side effects will be massive for economics, politics and people's well-being. Indeed, they may already have started. Is it a coincidence that Germany and Italy, two countries on the edge of population decline, are so troubled?
First, some facts. On average, women must have two children for a society to replace itself. The number of children per woman is called the "total fertility rate," or TFR. Here are the estimated 2005 TFRs for some major countries: Germany, 1.4; Greece, 1.3; Italy, 1.3; Japan, 1.4; Spain, 1.3; and Russia, 1.3. Low fertility rates don't instantly lead to population declines. They can be offset by immigration, longer life expectancies and greater numbers of young mothers. But ultimately low fertility rates suggest falling populations. The table below compares the 2005 populations (in millions) for four countries with the Census Bureau projections for 2050.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
In my Christian homeschool group, children are regarded as blessings. Many families have 5 or more. Often when I speak to more secular parents, they often think we are crazy because we enjoy having our kids all day.
Their attitude is kids are a burden and and drain on their pocketbooks, and that they tie them down.
Thanks for your insightful, (and alarming), post. Unfortunately, there are still many people guffawing at spiritual admonitions like yours, believing that government and/or science will save us all from the unprecedented crisis of declining populations caused by "a woman's right to choose". It's paradoxical that legalized abortion is not only decimating populations and throwing the future of nations into doubt, but it's also helped create the narcissistic mentality that blinds people to this fact.
Could this Russia maintain a strong economy, national optimism or a capable military?
Gee, how did they do it back in the 1800s, when their population was 50% of what it will be in 2050?
How does Israel do it today, with a population just over 5M?
These people have their heads up their you-know-what.
My own view is that the planet is too crowded. Things would be a lot better if we had 3B people instead of 8B.
If you buy into the argument that we have to continuously grow, then eventually we'll all be living in misery. IMHO, there is nothing wrong with maintaining a stable population.
Human-caused global warming has not been scientifically established, and therefore remains pure speculation amongst the nervous minded and the easily led. But rapidly declining populations can be proved, (through a simple census), and they can be associated directly to abortion, (because abortion statistics are kept by most developed governments). So while Chicken Little may be flapping his beak about so-called "global warming", he has a monumentally dangerous counterpart called the 'Doubting Thomases', who refute the obvious and doubt everything until it personally touches them.
Vodka? If only vodka... Well, here is a piece from a book on drunkenness [Venedict Erofeev, "Moskva-Petushki"] for you:
To drink mere vodka, even from the bottleneck - there is nothing in it besides spiritual languor and vanity. To mix vodka and cologne - there is a certain caprice in it, but no pathos. But to drink a glass of "Canaan balsam" - there is a caprice, an idea, and pathos, and besides it, a metaphysical hint.
Which component of "Canaan balsam" do we appreciate above others? Of course, denatured alcohol. But the denatured alcohol, while being an object of inspiration, is by itself completely devoid of any inspiration whatsoever. What, then, do we most appreciate in the denatured alcohol? Of course, the naked taste sensation. And even above that the miasma that the denatured alcohol emanates. To attenuate that miasma, one needs at least a little flavor. For this reason to the denatured alcohol one adds in the ratio 1:2:1 some dark beer, best of all "Ostankino" or "Senator", and purified wood lacquer.
I will not remind you how to purify the wood lacquer - every baby knows it. Somehow nobody in Russia knows what Pushkin died from, but everyone knows how to purify the wood lacquer.
So, write down the recipe of "Canaan balsam". The life is given to man only once, and one should live it so as not to mistake the recipes (allusion to the official quotation):
Denatured alcohol 100 g
Dark beer 200 g
Purified wood lacquer 100 g
And so, now you have "Canaan balsam" (people call it "brown-black bitch") - the liquid of brownish-black color, with moderate strength and strong aroma. It is not an aroma, it is an anthem. An anthem of democratic youth. Precisely so, because those who have drunk this cocktail become vulgar and overcome by dark forces. How many times I've observed it!
To avoid these dark forces, there are two ways: first, don't drink "Canaan balsam". And second, drink instead of it the "Geneva Spirit". It doesn't have a drop of nobility, but it has the flavor. You'll ask me: what is the secret of this flavor? I'll answer: I do not know. Then you'll think and ask: what's the answer to the riddle? And the answer is that the cologne "White Lilac", one of "Geneva Spirit" components, shall not be substituted by anything, neither by "Jasmine", nor by "Shipr", nor by "Silver Lily".
"There are no equivalents among the components" - as the old alchemists used to say, and they knew what they were talking about. "Silver Lily" is not "White Lilac" even in moral aspect, to say nothing about the bouquets.
"Lily", for example, stimulates the mind, worries the consciousness, and strengthens the discipline. "White Lilac", to the contrary, calms down the consciousness and reconciles one with one's life...
With me it was like this: I drank a whole bottle of "Silver Lily", and I was sitting and crying. Why was I crying?- Because I remembered my Mom, I remembered and could not forget my Mom. "Mom"- I said. And I cried. And again: "Mom" - and again cried. Another, more stupid person, would be still sitting and crying. But me? I took a bottle of "White Lilac" and drank it. And wouldn't you know - tears dried, stupid laughter overcame me, and as for the Mom - I forgot even her name. And so, I laugh at people who, while preparing "Geneva Spirit", add "Silver Lily" to the medication against sweaty feet!
Listen to the recipe:
"White Lilac" 50 g
The medication against sweaty feet 50 g
Zhigulevskoye beer 200 g
Alcohol-based lacquer 150 g
But if a man does not want to trample the earth needlessly, he should send to hell both "Canaan balsam" and "Geneva Spirit". He'd better sit down and mix himself a "Young communist girl's tear". This cocktail is smelly and strange. Why it is smelly, you'll learn later. At first I'll explain why it's strange.
A person drinking simple vodka either preserves both the sound mind and the good memory or loses both. But with the "Young communist girl's tear" it's outright funny - when one drinks 100 grams of that "tear", the memory remains good, but there's no trace of sound mind. After 100 more grams one is surprised: where did all this sound mind come from? And where did all good memory go?
Even the recipe of the "tear" is fragrant. And from the prepared cocktail, from its aroma, one can faint for a minute. I, for example, fainted.
Lavender 15 g
Verbena 15 g
"Forest Water" 30 g
Nail polish 2 g
Tooth elixir 150 g
Lemonade 150 g
This mixture should for twenty minutes be stirred with honeysuckle branch. Some people say that if necessary, the honeysuckle can be substituted by convolvulus. This is erroneous and criminal. You can cut me to pieces, but you won't force me to stir "Young communist girl's tear" with convolvulus - I'll stir it with honeysuckle. I break my sides with laughter when in my presence somebody stirs the "Young communist girl's tear" with convolvulus and not with honeysuckle... But enough about the "tear". Now I offer you the last and the best. "The end of work is better than all prizes" - as the poet said. I offer you the cocktail "Bitch's Guts" - the drink eclipsing everything. What is the most beautiful thing in the world? - The struggle for the liberation of mankind (again Marx's questionnaire and his answer quoted). And this is even more beautiful (write it down):
Zhigulevskoye beer 100 g
Shampoo "Sadko" 30 g
Anti-dandruff medication "Resol" 70 g
Medication against sweaty feet 30 g
Desinsectal for extermination of small insects 20 g
This mixture is for one week kept over cigar tobacco and is then served...
I received some letters where the readers recommended filtering the tincture thus obtained. Those corrections and additions spring from weak imagination and lack of fantasy - that's where these stupid corrections come from...
And so, "Bitch's Gut" is served. Drink it with the appearance of the first star, by large gulps. After only two glasses of this cocktail one becomes so spirited that you can come close and for the whole half an hour spit in his face from five feet - and he wouldn’t say anything to you."
One of my friends gets to regularly travel to Russia for trips. He says it is unbelievable the amount of smoking hot women there are in Russia. And the few men there are, are the exact opposite. He goes over there for wrestling trips and apparently in the summer time it is impossible to concentrate on wrestling because of the women. They are all interested in him because he a) wrestles b) is black and c) is American (and is stereotyped as a rich guy. Not a bad life all things considered.
I am quite surprised that there is such a ping list.
I bought that book just about the day that it was out.
Pat is brilliant, absolutely.
He is also crazy.
Add me to your ping list if you will please, but honestly, the man confuses me.
I am addicted to that show. And contrary to what people on here thought when it first came on, I think it show polygamy in a negative light. I'm kind of sad that the season is already over, but at the same time that just makes way for Entourage. HBO seems to have more than its fair share of great shows.
The baby bonus will have to be substantial to make much of a difference. I don't think Russia can afford it. Subsidies for babies have not had much impact in Western Europe, but of course, with the high standard of living, and cost of raising a kid, subsidies there are rounding error.
"American fertility is roughly at the replacement rate, 2.1 children per woman. Nor does the U.S. rate merely reflect, as some think, a higher rate among Hispanic Americans. The fertility rate is 1.9 for non-Hispanic whites and about 2 for African Americans, reports demographer Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute. What explains the American exception? Eberstadt cites three differences with Europe and most other advanced countries: greater optimism, greater patriotism and stronger religious values. There's some supporting evidence. A survey by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago asked respondents in 33 countries to react to this statement: "I would rather be a citizen of [my country] than of any other." Among Americans, 75 percent "strongly" agreed; among Germans, French and Spanish, comparable responses were 21 percent, 34 percent and 21 percent, respectively."
I think it is more about religious values myself (regarding which the US is a unique outlier for an advanced nation economically). The rest (including the patriotism thing) I suspect is fluff. So say this near atheist.
I should have pinged you to to my latest brain fart.
My advice to any woman who cannot trust the man she is sleeping with to stay with her if she gets pregnant, is to not sleep with him. Or better yet, don't sleep with any man at least until she's wearing an engagement ring, or even, (oh great god of feminism forbid), wait until she is married.
As for 'financial security', if life wasn't worth living until one obtains it, then about 99 % of the world's population should not exist today.
The reality is that children often help make parents become financially secure after they're born, because the parents see their child's total vulnerability and this becomes a great motivator to work hard and become successful. But the real 'security' in having a child has nothing whatsoever to do with money. It is the incredible love and joy they bring into the world with them that strengthens the parents and makes everything worthwhile.
Children, in fact, provide a greater asset to parents than any amount of money ever could. When the parents begin to age and can no longer get around and do what they used to do, having children who love you and lend a hand is the greatest blessing on earth, a blessing that no amount of 'financial security' could ever replace.
Before I had kids I was afraid my life would be over. Fortunately we had some friends who told us that when you have kids the fun is just beginning, and that the kids get to be more and more fun the older they get. I do have huge amounts of fun and joy with my kids, though. They have been a pain in the neck at times but also a great blessing, and with all the headaches and heartaches, expenses and disasters, I wouldn't have missed it. What a sterile, cold, self-absorbed little life I would have led without this pair to wear me out. I just wish I could have had four. Too bad the DINKs don't realize this.
There are indeed such people, but people on threads such as this tend to forget that there are other, valid reasons for not having children. Some look at the world and don't like what they see and decide to not bring a child into a world that they perceive as crowded, violent, and too competitive. As regards the latter characteristic of modern society, prospective parents look at their level of intelligence, which will be passed on through their genes, and decide that their genes will not equip their children to compete in the modern world. Surely, they know it must be horrible to be a failure because you cannot do what your contemporaries are capable of. Argue about how they are wrong in their perceptions until you are blue in the face but you won't change their mind.
Others know that their genetic make-up is such that their children are likely to suffer from a number of neurological problems and extremely bad health. Why burden some poor little soul with those problems? No, better that a child have a good genetic make-up.
Still others accept the reality that they don't have the financial wherewithal to support a family, even one child. They accept being single and working two jobs or marry and have both themselves and their spouse work, just to make enough money to get by.
In other words, don't make the argument so damned simplistic, i.e., the birth dearth is due to a bunch of greedy, self-centered people who just stomp their feet and say, "No, I'm not going to a parent, it would interfere with my lifestyle." No doubt such people exist but they cannot be the only variable. I don't believe it.
And yes, I know you can easily point to the 1950's and other times in which there were lots of children. But, and this is a big "but", the world has changed. It has gotten more competitive, health care has gotten to be a big concern, all has changed.
Anyway, that's my two cents. It's close to midnight, so this old man is going to bed. 'Night, all. Will respond to any comments tomorrow.
I told everyone countless times we need our Hispanic immigrant desperately for the survival of our country.
A tax base, future armies, industrious....all reasons why the government wants amnesty.
Get over ourselves and welcome them.
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