Posted on 05/21/2006 12:41:14 PM PDT by quidnunc
So claims the Washington Post. The GOP is on the verge of a major electoral disaster. Each week more House seats once considered safe (60-65% for Bush in 04) are now on the endangered list for incumbent GOP congressmen. The list is probably over 50 at this point,and may grow some more.
More GOP senators are now in trouble. Add Jon Kyl of Arizoan to the list. He is now but 7 points ahead of a very wealthy competitor (last three polls showed him up 29, then 15, now 7). Seven GOP Senate seats are at risk and 3 Demcratic seats (maybe 4 if Mfume wins Democratic primary in Maryland).
Bush tried to thread the needle on immigration — appeal to both conservatives and Hispanics — and failed. He needed to get this bill through before passions were ignited, but his political weakness prevented that.
Many Hispanics apparently were radicalized by the mass demonstrations, and no longer are open to any appeal for a balanced immigration plan.
The demonstrations also hardened attitudes on the right. If Bush is forced to choose, and goes with his conservative base, he likely writes off the chance of a 40% or more GOP Hispanic vote share for decades, and the result will be similar to what happened in Califronia after Pete Wilson’s immigration referendums (a 20% GOP voting share of Hispanics).
That spells big trouble for the GOP all over the country. Hispanics were 7% of national vote in 04, and will likely be 9% in 08. This group split 4 to 3 of the 7% in 04. If they split 7 to 2 or 6 to 3 of the 9% in 08, the GOP could be toast in the Presidential race. We could be seeing the end of the GOP’s dream of being a majority party this year.
Kyle Pederson Undecided
Caucasian 43 32 25
Hispanic 33 30 37
Other 24 49 27
Forty percent of an increasingly mestizo, welfare-dependent and racially conscious Hispanic minority is an absurd fantasy.
It is just stunning how many experts on Hispanics we have on this site. This place could staff a university.
The most cogent comment I've heard recently. How about sixty percent of the "non-voting" lower middle-class and poor whites and blacks whose wages are going nowhere, and job opportunities are shrinking, because of illegal immigration. Maybe politicians like John Kyl should start campaigning for their vote.
Its not true that only illegals condone other illegals.It IS true that many American citizen Latinos are not really thrilled by the huge illegal influx but many see it as a racial solidarity issue-supporting their"hermanos y hermanas"in the struggle.
When Latinos see that the vast majority of people in the Minutemen and SOS are gringos,they almost viscerally lean to the La Raza group as a reaction.
Not saying that that tendency is good or healthy,just saying it is my observation from what I see everyday here in California.
Baloney. GOP GAINS---get it?---GAINS a net of at least one seat in the Senate and one to five in the House.
You have to work from reality and what you "want" to have happen. I'm in OH, where DeWine voted for the amnesty, and he defeated the conservatives 75%-25% in the primary and WILL win the general (he's supposedly one of the 'vulnerable'). Don't believe it. I've looked at the races. GOP GAINS one seat in the senate---possibly as many as two---and one to five seats in the House.
Hispanics for the most part don't vote.
They are actually conservative in values, so it ends up being a matter of education for the R party.
PS, when has the press before and election ever NOT said the Republicans were heading toward a disaster?
DeWine is either even or even down in the polls depending on what poll one sees. As for gains in the senate and house, uhm, what seats will the GOP pick up? I am in OH as well now, and many are up in arms about amnesty as well.
Well I have a scarier thought. What if they DID know and went ahead anyway? What would that suggest? Is there something happening here that the general population was not given the memo on?
With the North American Union moving over into the passing lane, I have to believe that the suckers do know what they're doing.
The GOP is in trouble because the President and many key senators have betrayed their base. Period. If they had the guts to enforce the law in the first place, many of these Hispanic voters wouldn't exist. Contributions from companies wanting cheap labor won't help bring back the base this time.
Ping
Many Hispanic voters (catch that: that means they're legal citizens) are ENRAGED with Bush's amnesty plans.
Good comment. I agree, a revolution needs/will take place in future elections. The soultion is simple -- Build a fence and seal the border, and jail anyone caught employing an illegal. Problems will be migrating south in a few days.
Uh-huh, and nice of them to conveniently ignore the fact all Hispanics don't think alike on the issue. There is a strong minority that wants strict enforcement.
Nice try.
Other supposedly "vulnerable" seats are DeWine (he was up 7 last I saw, and hasn't really started campaigning against Brown), Talent in MO (again, I just don't see this), and Santorum.
We have an outside shot at the MD seat, and had we run a better candidate, we should have picked off the Nelson seat in FL as well. But it's still early. I don't see ANY trend that works in the Dems' favor---certainly not the WOT, certainly not security, and certainly not illegals.
Pennboricua is absolutely right.
Except for us Cubans, of course, who are above all that and perfect in every way. ;-)
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