Posted on 03/20/2006 3:19:24 PM PST by PPHSFL
Amid the president's plummeting approval ratings, grim headlines about Iraq, and the Jack Abramoff and Duke Cunningham scandals, some Republican strategists in Florida have found solace heading into the biggest election cycle in more than 10 years.
Gov. Jeb Bush's popularity insulates the state from the president's problems, they assure themselves. The Florida Legislature's recently passed gift ban and lobbyist disclosure law helps diminish the stench of Republican scandal wafting out of Washington. Florida's economy is stronger than other states, they note, and Florida Democrats are hapless and darn near destitute.
Time to take off the rose-tinted glasses.
Crazy as it sounds in a state so thoroughly dominated by the GOP, there are signs of big trouble brewing for the party of no-longer-in-control-Jeb. And it goes much deeper than than Republican Senate candidate Katherine Harris' latest discomforting performance on Hannity & Colmes.
"There's been a phenomenal reversal of fortune down there," said Matt Towery, who runs an Atlanta-based polling and online media firm. Having completed a March 6-9 poll of 1,000 registered voters in Florida, the former Republican lawmaker and Newt Gingrich aide sees a seismic shift in Florida politics.
"These numbers are like a tsunami. There has been a literal sea change, a potential realignment toward the Democrats in Florida," Towery said. "I think the state's gone from being pretty safe Republican to being pretty safe Democrat. And it's because the independents who kept (both Bushes) in office have shifted something like 70 percent to the Democrats."
This is just a snapshot in time, of course, and the election - including governor, U.S. Senate, state attorney general, chief financial officer and a smattering of competitive congressional and legislative races - is still eight months away. Republicans have an enormous financial advantage and a get-out-the-vote effort that's proven its superiority in the last two Florida elections.
Republican strategist Geoffrey Becker is worried but much less pessimistic than Towery. As the old saying goes, you can't beat somebody with nobody, and Florida Democrats have yet to prove they have somebody.
"Republicans have every right to be concerned, but I don't see it in the sense of a Democratic frenzy of turnout. I see it in less than ecstatic Republican enthusiasm. Republicans right now, despite the economy doing well and us doing a lot of good things and having a lot to talk about in Florida, don't seem to have the same intensity that we normally should at this point in time in the cycle," Becker said.
The president has been slightly better off in Florida than he is nationally. Towery's InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research poll found a meager 42 percent of Florida voters approved of his performance in the poll, compared to 37 percent nationally in the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.
So it's way too early to project big Republican losses, especially given the state's gerrymandered congressional and legislative districts and the Democrats' track record in recent Florida elections.
Still, it sure seems lately like the Republicans are holding the door open for Democratic advancements.
There's a reason savvy Republicans in Florida remain wary about the statewide races like governor, attorney general and chief financial officer this year and downright worried about some congressional races, like Republican U.S. Rep. Clay Shaw's in southeast Florida.
Back in December a lot of politicos felt Florida Republicans had inoculated themselves from the special interest and ethics taint emanating from Abramoff, Tom DeLay and Scooter Libby in Washington. Gov. Bush at the time said he doubted Florida would feel the backlash against Washington Republicans.
"It would have, had the Republican Party in Florida not responded, had the leadership of the Legislature just ignored this feeling that I sense that people are frustrated by the corrupting influence of special interests," the governor said then, refering to the gift ban.
Sounds logical. But what have been Florida's biggest political headlines since?
- Republican Senate candidate Katherine Harris - presumably the name at the top of the ballot in November - received tens of thousands of dollars in illegal campaign contributions from a defense contractor who bribed California Rep. Duke Cunningham.
- Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Gallagher, after revelations of his day-trading as chief financial officer, queries the Florida Ethics Commission whether he should have speculated thousands of dollars on companies he was regulating as insurance commissioner.
- Incoming Senate President Ken Pruitt is under fire for his longstanding ties to a controversial Palm Beach County political consultant. Among the allegations is that Pruitt helped write school construction laws that would benefit the consultant's portable classroom company.
Florida Democratic chairwoman Karen Thurman lately has been trying to turn Pruitt into Florida's own Tom DeLay.
"The Republican Party is the party of ideas," said Pruitt, brushing off the criticism of himself. "And just like you've seen here for the past seven years, you're going see more ideas coming out of the Florida Legislature, and that's why why we win."
Party leaders downplay the backlash on Florida Republicans.
"We've gotten some headlines, but we passed a really good ethics reform bill back in December, and I think that we have set the bar for other states to follow," said state House Speaker Allan Bense, R-Panama City. "A lot of those issues that you're talking about occurred prior to the December bill being passed."
That doesn't mean those issues won't be part of the campaign dialogue in the next few months, however. The new disclosure law could in fact wind up highlighting the extraordinary amount of money some lobbyists make in Tallahassee.
Pollster Towery thinks the mess in Washington could shape Florida governor's race in big ways. He sees the Democratic primary between U.S. Rep. Jim Davis of Tampa and state Sen. Rod Smith of Alachua as wide open - and the most overlooked contest of the year because Democrats have a real shot at winning back the Governor's Mansion.
"That giant sucking sound you hear coming out of the Washington and Congress I think is going to flow right down into these governors races," Towery said.
Most Floridians haven't heard of Davis or Smith. Come November, though, the anti-Republican landscape could make their lack of familiarity moot.
If there's anything to reassure Florida Republicans, it's history: Democrats have a knack for snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.
Adam C. Smith can be reached at 727 893-8241 or adam@sptimes.com
It used to be a blast in the mid 70's reading columns by their "liberal elite" reporters writing glowing stories about Carter who was a "liberal goober".
The same reporters who detested rednecks had to write nicey-nice stories about a president who, to them was about two steps into a twelve step program for recovering southern white trash. Their newspaper just cannot deal with Jeb Bush. All their usual ammo bounces off and comes back in their faces. Needless to say, they must have set aside a stock of champagne and party hats for his last day in office.
I don't know enough about the Dims in Florida, but I know plenty about Crist. I can never respect that man again. I rarely vote for Dims, but on occasion there are a few I can live with. It would depend on who ends up winning the Dim primary. Likely, I would sit the gubernatorial vote out. Lucky for many that I don't live in Florida anymore.
I have seen some good stuff from the Orlando Sentinel, but I'm sorry to hear they've gone to the dark side. Maybe that's why I haven't seen anything from them posted here for some time.
Jim Davis is no better than Crist. From where I'm sitting, Crist hasn't "done a fantastic job at every post he's held in FL", especially and particularly the one he's in right now. He's nothing more than a pandering politician. His is the kind I'm hoping to get out of office here in Ohio.
If your note were to be posted in the typical newsroom, most of the reporters would quit.
I think their biggest regret is spending their whole lives prepping to be a 60's type liberal, only to find out that not only are the 60's gone, so are the 70's, 80's and 90's. They are like fish out of water.
Maybe that's why they take it easy on the Islamofascists who are about 900 years behind. Both groups are trying to make the rest of us back up into their favorite era.
Not many. The Tampa Tribune, while not exactly conservative, at least tried to be somewhat moderate once, but it too has sailed off the left edge of the earth - it's almost as bad as the St. Petersburg Times any more. The Florida Times Union out of Jacksonville was a reliably conservative paper back when I was at UF (I used to read it to get away from the Gainesville Sun, which is only good for it's Gators coverage). But I haven't read the Times-Union in a few years, so I don't know how it is these days. There's also a small daily paper in Martin County that's conservative.
And that's about it.
The dems are up to their eyeballs in the Abramoff mess .. just check FR or the RNC.com and you will find articles about it.
Public's view: 15% isolated incidents - 78% general operating procedure in congress (by either party). This is why Pelosi's "culture of corruption" has suddenly gone quiet.
Thanks. That's about as I suspected.
Are we (well, Republican pols at least) surrenduring? I get real tired of this quitter crap I see floating around, especially in the "conservative" media.
Yeah, life is hard. Yeah, libs hate conservatives. So what. Act like conservatives and win.
ping!
Florida State GOP report for 2005: registered 50,000 new voters, money on hand: $ 10 Million.
The Florida rat registered new voters too, only not as many - 3640 yes THIRTY SIX HUNDRED AND FORTY.
Rat Florida State report for 2005 shows he has about 4 million on hand. The rat has strength in about 11 counties. The GOP has strength in all the other 50 or so.
This article is ratmedia psy-ops gibberish.
Well, my point is really that we would be better served if our Repubs could strike at least half the fear in the hearts of the Dems as they manage to exert against Repubs. .
. . .and yes, we know the 'rest of the story' here; thanks to various sourcings on FR and RNC info; but how many of these are reprinted or sourced from the Washington Post/NYT's, et al?
Yes, the Dems on another drive-by mission; and they did not do as much damage as they liked; but they did leave some wounds.
But again. . .if Repubs were more ferocious with the truth; the Dems would have thought - more than twice - about 'going there'.
Part of this problem has to do with the atmosphere in Wash DC. The liberals own the town. One wrong move and you are smeared from one end of the city to the next. THAT fear is what drives the repubs. It's too bad .. but IT'S UP TO US TO KEEP THEM INFORMED AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON OUT HERE IN REALITY LAND.
If you are not contacting your congress people - you are not doing your job. I know many of us are .. and Barbara Boxer's staff surely knows my voice by now.
But .. there's a lot more we can do. When we get those reports from the RNC or others here on FR - how many of us send them to all their family members .. and I do mean ALL. It takes time to re-indoctrinate some of the liberals in our family. But .. some of this great info could be circulated by those of us receiving it - thereby making the old media even more irrelevant!
Good thoughts all, CyberAnt. . .
Another step in 'quiet activism'. . .whether a great Mark Steyn piece or something from FR or Powerline. . .'whatever'. . .make a few copies; keep handy for leaving behind on table after that 'coffee trip' to Starbucks or left 'inadvertantly' in a Lib book or mag at Border Books. . .or on windshield of a particularly noxious car i.e. with two or more lib message stickers.
If I find a book by Thomas Sowell; particularly during Black History month. . .(it will be in buried in 'back' stacks for sure). . .I place it with the other 'Black History recommended reading'. . .or just anytime I find a good conservative book that has not ever seen the front shelf; I move it to a more prominent position, say. ..the 'best sellers' shelf or 'new'; albeit, very discreetly.
Anyway, could help. ..cannot hurt (save, be careful at the bookstore!)
Of course, many Freepers doing things. . .and these are just a few suggestions whereby some - perhaps less vocal or with less time can help get the word out.
"... make a few copies; keep handy for leaving behind on table after that 'coffee trip' to Starbucks or left 'inadvertantly' in a Lib book or mag at Border Books."
Those are great suggestions too. Starbucks is really a good place - and especially in college towns where all the libs hang out. I like that! I'll remember to do that .. printing copies as we speak .. LOL!!
I mean, no one should ever imagine 'activism' is beyond them; when it is always our reach. . .
So many 'Starbucks'. . .so many Freepers. . .so lititle time. . .
3 cheers for Starbucks
ping...
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