FOX Poll: Bush Job Approval @ 39% (43% Dem, 33% Rep, 18% Ind)

Fox News ^

[slowhand520]

What is with the slanted sampling? First CBS now Fox?

For only the second time of his presidency, the poll finds that President Bush’s overall job approval rating has fallen below 40 percent — today 39 percent of Americans say they approve and a 54 percent majority disapproves. Late last year the president’s approval hit a record-low of 36 percent (8-9 November 2005).

This is also one of only a handful of times that Bush's approval has dropped below 80 percent among Republicans. Today 77 percent of Republicans approve, down from 82 percent in early February. Disapproval among Democrats went from 79 percent in early February to 84 percent today. Approval among independents is essentially unchanged at 35 percent.

[elfman2]

"The arguments now are precisely the same arguments the Dems where using in their inane rejection of the 2004 pre-election polls that showed Kerry trailing Bush and consistently showed more Pubbies than Dems. "

I don’t remember those polls.

I understand you to be saying that the polls are correct but party affiliation is fluctuating. I’ve heard the argument, but doubt it. I don’t know if any study has been done on that. Intuitively, I favor what I suggested, that in times of aggressive attack, one party is more likely to respond to pollsters.

[N. Theknow]

Fox has lost me

Haven't watched Fox since they hired Whorealdo and Greta VonSuckscum.

[elfman2]

"Actually if they took 50% republicans and 50% democrats it wouldn't be a scientific poll for the Presidents approval rating. "

I agree. I think it’s something like 33R, 33D, 33I, but not sure. Unless it’s adjusted to account for the tendency for one group to be more difficult to poll, it’s misleading.

[RFT1]

If people recall, during the 2004 election, the most inaccurate polls were still only 2% off. Even Zogbys final national poll in 2004 was only 1.25% off.

So all this taken into consideration, while Bush popularity rating is probably not 34% as CBS states, it probably is in the high 30s, and he has really no political capital left.

[sasafras]

Ol Bushbots to the rescue - tell us it aint so Bushies? Bush is going down the crapper? Hmmm must be the fact that he could care less about our security and would rather sell us out to Mexico and Dubai, after all we are the vigilantes.

[AntiGuv]

Well, I'll be happy to remind you. These were all the final 2004 polls:

ABC News: Bush 49%; Kerry 48%
CBS News: Bush 49%; Kerry 47%
FOX News: Bush 48%; Kerry 46%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup: Bush 49%; Kerry 47%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal: Bush 48%; Kerry 47%
Washington Post: Bush 49%; Kerry 48%
Zogby Poll: Bush 48%; Kerry 47%
American Research Group: Bush 48%; Kerry 48%
Marist College: Bush 49%; Kerry 50%
GWU Battleground: Bush 50%; Kerry 46%
TIPP: Bush 49%; Kerry 45%
Pew Research Center: Bush 48%; Kerry 45%
Newsweek Poll: Bush 50%; Kerry 44%

[RHINO369]

Like many of us have said many times now Fox did random sampling. 43% of randomly sampled people where democrats. You all are assuming that there are an equal number of democrats to republicans, which isn't the case. Right now 43% of the registered voters fox sampled claimed to be democrats.

If fox had desided to screw with the number to try to even it out, I would stop watching fox because that would unfair and very biased. I watch fox because they are the most balanced network on the air, I don't want it to become a bs, feed me lies so I feel better about being a republican propaganda station like some of you demand.

[Wasanother]

It is so amazing how Bush won the election with so many more Democrats in the US? sarc

[slowhand520]

Maybe you're a douche?

[Txsleuth]

The questions are skewed....and the fact that the dems out numer the reps make it bogus....as well as the fact that this is registered voters..

NOT likely voters.

[RHINO369]

Bush barely won an election vs the one of the biggest liberals in america. Don't use that to throw out a perfectly good random sampling.

Instead of realizing there is a problem here, instead all here want to close there eyes and pretend it doesn't exist.

[taxesareforever]

Media uses the polls when they can't find anything else to talk about.

[Homer1]

getting 43% Democrats and 33% republicans could be indicative of a flawed polling methodology.

for example, if I ran a poll that said that Football had a 75% disapproval rating, but the poll internals indicated that 95% of my respondents were female, how believable would that 75% result be?

[OldFriend]

All the media buys it's polling lists from the same company.

[DrDeb]

If polling 'adults' rather than registered or likely voters, a pollster MIGHT be able to argue that party affiliation fluctuates poll to poll.

HOWEVER, this is a poll of REGISTERED voters -- the fluctuation argument simply doesn't apply.


TWO points:

1.) As I have mentioned NUMEROUS times, Opinion Dynamics completely blew the 2004 election -- calling the election for Kerry and missing the final spread by 5 points! [OD continues to use the same methodology/sampling techniques that it used in 2004.]

2.) To produce VALID results, pollsters must generate REPRESENTATIVE samples of 'registered' and 'likely voters' (and I would argue, 'adults'). A REPRESENTATIVE national sample of 'registered' voters would typically feature a +3 point advantage for Democrats NOT a +10 point advantage!


If you want to view a LEGITIMATE poll conducted by an icon in the polling biz, read the following analysis by Ed Goeas of THE BATTLEGROUND POLL.

PRESIDENT BUSH:

Job Approval rating --
46% approve 52% disapprove

Likability rating --
60% approve of GWB as a person 33% disapprove

NEVER confuse the President's JA/Favorability rating with his likability rating. The latter is a president's MOST IMPORTANT RATING and the BattleGround Poll is one of the few polls to still produce this rating!

http://inside.c-spanarchives.org:8080/cspan/schedule.csp
[scroll down to the Republican Strategic Analysis]

[Wasanother]

He won by over 3 million votes and the 1st time in over ? years with a majority. Random shouldn't conflict with accuracy because it's also a known fact that geographic sampling also plays a part and if they target more in the inner city then they get more Rats. Also if they sample during the day they get the day Rats that don't work. A polling company will easily go through 10,000 calls to get a 1,000 person sample. I won't deny that Bush's rating have gone down but I don't believe it to be down below 46%. A real poll would take 52% Republicans, 48% Democrats (election results) then ask, more often than not agree with Bush, about the same, more often than not disagree. Take the about the same and evenly divide it. If they did this then it wouldn't matter these so-called "Independents". No weighing just pure accuracy.

[Tarpon]

So what happened to the 50-50 split? Like the Texas redistricting plan, if you get 40% of the vote you get 60% of the seats.

So who determines the biases?

[Tarpon]

Yep, make that an even 50%.

[onyx]

BTTT!

Thank you (again) for your accurate, factual postings!