Canadian Election Primer

Various | 1/23/06 | conservative in nyc

[conservative in nyc]

Here's this Yank's take on today's Canadian election, for what it's worth. My prediction - the Tories will take 120-125 seats.

Here's hoping I'm being pessimistic!

Good luck to our Canadian FRiends!

[conservative in nyc]

Ping!

Here's the 2004 Canadian election live thread with my 2004 primer. I would have put it on this year's live thread, but I'd never find it again since it wouldn't be on the front page.

[American Quilter]

Go conservatives!

[conservative in nyc]

The 2006 4-poll average includes Ekos, Strategic Counsel, Ipsos Reid and SES. The 2004 3-poll average includes the last Ekos, Ipsos Reid and SES (and Leger in Quebec). Both are true averages of the percentages in each poll.

An chart with average poll numbers weighted by the number of respondents in each 2006 poll is below. (I can't do this for the 2004 poll, since I don't have the number of respondents for 2 of those polls):

2006 4-Poll Weighted Average	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green
Canada	37.6%	27.2%	19.0%	11.7%	4.5%
Atlantic Canada	32.6%	37.9%	26.1%	-	2.6%
Quebec	24.5%	14.2%	9.6%	47.9%	3.6%
Ontario	36.7%	35.1%	21.6%	-	4.8%
Prairies	45.8%	23.1%	25.2%	-	4.6%
Alberta	66.5%	14.5%	11.7%	-	6.6%
B.C.	35.9%	28.8%	28.9%	-	5.3%

[fanfan]

I'm sure all Canadian FReepers will join me in thanking Jim Robinson for this Forum of Freedom.

 

No matter what happens tonight,  none of us would have been able to get as far as we've gotten, without Free Republic.

 

Thank you Jim.

God Bless You, and yours.

[MplsSteve]

Outstanding info!

I had always believed that British Columbia (with the exception of the Vancouver area) was a Conservative stronghold.

I'm kinda surprised to see the Tories run a little behind there.

[HuntsvilleTxVeteran]

I have visited Alberta several times on oil exploration business and all of the people I met on business or in bars were favorable to the USA.

[Alberta's Child]

I had always believed that British Columbia (with the exception of the Vancouver area) was a Conservative stronghold.

It is. The only problem is that the Vancouver area has about half the population of the entire province.

Anyone who has any doubts about the political climate in Alberta should understand that anything less than a 28-0 sweep in Alberta by the Conservatives would be a huge disappointment. Of course, this would be a minor improvement from the current 26-2 Conservative advantage in that province.

[Alberta's Child]

Ping.

[MplsSteve]

How do the Conservatives run in Vancouver's suburbs? Good - or not so good?

Do Vancouver's suburbs have a left-ward tilt to them? You know, kinda like San Fransicko's suburbs?

[tomahawk]

Good luck to our conservative Canadian brothers.

I'll be watching the returns on C-Span.

[backhoe]

This is very helpful, and I'll link to it, and refer people to it.

[Yardstick]

*Bump*

Little by little I gain knowledge of the Canadian political scene.

[Canadian Outrage]

Vancouver East and Vancouver centre, ruin it for B.C. The rest of the Province is Conservative.

[feefee]

fyi

[Nicholas Conradin]

308 seats are up for grabs in the House of Commons.

How is the total number of seats in the House determined?

Is there a particular number of ridings in each province?

[conservative in nyc]

Is there a particular number of ridings in each province?

Yes. They should be in the charts to the right of the text. For example, PEI has 4. Alberta has 28.

[Canadian Outrage]

I'm from B.C.'s interior and we have never sent anything but a Conservative to Ottawa. (Kelowna). Vancouver is a cesspool of immigrants. That's why it's a Liberal/NDP stronghold. Some of the suburbs are Conservative I think at least they were 25+ years ago.

A lot of us would like to just separate and join with Alberta, Saskatchewan and even Manitoba. East of Manitoba there seems to be little hope.

[Alexander Rubin]

Big thanks from Canada. :D

[conservative in nyc]

Here are the revised charts with the close to final 3AM numbers. The SES/CPAC poll came closest to getting the result right, except in Western Canada. Election Prediction Project and democraticSpace.com both came closest in projecting the number of seats each party would get. FReeper Torie actually came closer on the Tory seat tally.

The Tories actually won more of the B.C. vote than in 2006, but still somehow managed to lose seats. Go figure.

Canada	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
2006 Actual Results	36.3%	30.2%	17.5%	10.5%	-	5.6%
2006 SES/CPAC	36.4%	30.1%	17.4%	10.6%	5.6%	-
2006 4-Poll Average	37.1%	27.8%	18.7%	11.3%	5.1%	-
2004 Election Results	29.6%	36.7%	15.7%	12.4%	4.9%	-
2006 Actual Seats	124	103	29	51	0	1
democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	128	94	29	56	0	1
Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	118	104	29	56	0	1
LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	140	78	33	56	0	1
Ipsos Reid/Global Final 2006 Seat Prediction	150	64	36	58	0	0
Seats after 2004 Election	99	135	19	54	0	1

Atlantic Canada	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
2006 Actual Results	34.5%	39.9%	22.7%	-	3.6%	-
SES/CPAC	29%	44%	22%	-	5%	-
2006 4-Poll Average	32.8%	39.0%	24.6%	-	3.2%	-
2004 Election Results	30.0%	43.8%	22.6%	-	3.0%	-
2006 Actual Seats	10	19	3	0	0	0
democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	11	18	3	0	0	0
Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	8	21	3	0	0	0
LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	12	16	4	0	0	0
Seats after 2004 Election	7	22	3	0	0	0

Quebec	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
2006 Actual Results	24.6%	20.7%	7.5%	42.1%	4.0%	-
SES/CPAC	27%	19%	8%	42%	3%	-
2006 4-Poll Average	25.1%	14.9%	8.5%	47.1%	3.9%	-
2004 Election Results	8.8%	33.9%	4.6%	48.9%	3.2%	-
2006 Actual Seats	10	13	0	51	0	1
democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	6	12	0	56	0	1
Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	3	15	0	56	0	1
LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	9	9	0	56	0	1
Seats after 2004 Election	0	21	0	54	0	0

Ontario	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
2006 Actual Results	35.1%	39.9%	19.4%	-	4.7%	-
SES/CPAC	36%	38%	20%	-	6%	-
2006 4-Poll Average	36.5%	35.6%	21.8%	-	5.6%	-
2004 Election Results	31.5%	44.7%	18.1%	-	4.4%	-
2006 Actual Seats	40	54	12	0	0	0
democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	44	49	13	0	0	0
Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	41	55	10	0	0	0
LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	51	40	15	0	0	0
Seats after 2004 Election	24	75	7	0	0	0

Prairies	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
2006 Actual Results	45.7%	24.3%	24.7%	-	3.6%	-
SES/CPAC	47%	25%	23%	-	5%	-
2006 4-Poll Average	45.8%	24.0%	24.5%	-	5.0%	-
2004 Election Results	40.4%	30.3%	23.4%	-	2.7%	-
2006 Actual Seats	20	5	3	0	0	0
democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	20	4	4	0	0	0
Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	19	4	5	0	0	0
LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	20	6	5	0	0	0
Seats after 2004 Election	20	4	4	0	0	0

Alberta	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
2006 Actual Results	65.0%	15.3%	11.7%		6.6%	-
2006 4-Poll Average	64.1%	15.3%	13.0%	-	7.0%	-
SES/CPAC	55%	18%	19%	-	7%	-
2004 Election Results	61.7%	22.0%	9.5%	-	6.1%	-
2006 Actual Seats	28	0	0	0	0	0
democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	28	0	0	0	0	0
Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	28	0	0	0	0	0
LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	28	0	0	0	0	0
Seats after 2004 Election	26	2	0	0	0	0

British Columbia	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
2006 Actual Results	37.3%	27.6%	28.6%	-	5.3%	-
SES/CPAC	34%	36%	23%	-	7%	-
2006 4-Poll Average	34.8%	31.0%	28.2%	-	5.7%	-
2004 Election Results	36.3%	28.6%	26.6%	-	6.3%	-
2006 Actual Seats	17	9	10	0	0	0
democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	19	9	8	0	0	0
Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	19	6	11	0	0	0
LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	20	7	9	0	0	0
Seats after 2004 Election	22	8	5	0	0	1

Territories	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
2006 Actual Results	23.4%	40.8%	20.0%	-	3.7%	-
2004 Election Results	18.0%	44.4%	28.7%	-	4.2%	-
2006 Actual Seats	0	2	1	0	0	0
democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	0	2	1	0	0	0
Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	0	2	1	0	0	0
Seats after 2004 Election	0	3	0	0	0	0