Replies

Here are the revised charts with the close to final 3AM numbers. The SES/CPAC poll came closest to getting the result right, except in Western Canada. Election Prediction Project and democraticSpace.com both came closest in projecting the number of seats each party would get. FReeper Torie actually came closer on the Tory seat tally.

The Tories actually won more of the B.C. vote than in 2006, but still somehow managed to lose seats. Go figure.

Canada	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
2006 Actual Results	36.3%	30.2%	17.5%	10.5%	-	5.6%
2006 SES/CPAC	36.4%	30.1%	17.4%	10.6%	5.6%	-
2006 4-Poll Average	37.1%	27.8%	18.7%	11.3%	5.1%	-

2004 Election Results	29.6%	36.7%	15.7%	12.4%	4.9%	-

2006 Actual Seats	124	103	29	51	0	1
democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	128	94	29	56	0	1
Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	118	104	29	56	0	1
LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	140	78	33	56	0	1
Ipsos Reid/Global Final 2006 Seat Prediction	150	64	36	58	0	0

Seats after 2004 Election	99	135	19	54	0	1

Atlantic Canada	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
2006 Actual Results	34.5%	39.9%	22.7%	-	3.6%	-
SES/CPAC	29%	44%	22%	-	5%	-
2006 4-Poll Average	32.8%	39.0%	24.6%	-	3.2%	-

2004 Election Results	30.0%	43.8%	22.6%	-	3.0%	-

2006 Actual Seats	10	19	3	0	0	0
democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	11	18	3	0	0	0
Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	8	21	3	0	0	0
LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	12	16	4	0	0	0

Seats after 2004 Election	7	22	3	0	0	0

Quebec	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
2006 Actual Results	24.6%	20.7%	7.5%	42.1%	4.0%	-
SES/CPAC	27%	19%	8%	42%	3%	-
2006 4-Poll Average	25.1%	14.9%	8.5%	47.1%	3.9%	-

2004 Election Results	8.8%	33.9%	4.6%	48.9%	3.2%	-

2006 Actual Seats	10	13	0	51	0	1
democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	6	12	0	56	0	1
Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	3	15	0	56	0	1
LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	9	9	0	56	0	1

Seats after 2004 Election	0	21	0	54	0	0

Ontario	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
2006 Actual Results	35.1%	39.9%	19.4%	-	4.7%	-
SES/CPAC	36%	38%	20%	-	6%	-
2006 4-Poll Average	36.5%	35.6%	21.8%	-	5.6%	-

2004 Election Results	31.5%	44.7%	18.1%	-	4.4%	-

2006 Actual Seats	40	54	12	0	0	0
democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	44	49	13	0	0	0
Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	41	55	10	0	0	0
LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	51	40	15	0	0	0

Seats after 2004 Election	24	75	7	0	0	0

Prairies	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
2006 Actual Results	45.7%	24.3%	24.7%	-	3.6%	-
SES/CPAC	47%	25%	23%	-	5%	-
2006 4-Poll Average	45.8%	24.0%	24.5%	-	5.0%	-

2004 Election Results	40.4%	30.3%	23.4%	-	2.7%	-

2006 Actual Seats	20	5	3	0	0	0
democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	20	4	4	0	0	0
Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	19	4	5	0	0	0
LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	20	6	5	0	0	0

Seats after 2004 Election	20	4	4	0	0	0

Alberta	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
2006 Actual Results	65.0%	15.3%	11.7%		6.6%	-
2006 4-Poll Average	64.1%	15.3%	13.0%	-	7.0%	-
SES/CPAC	55%	18%	19%	-	7%	-

2004 Election Results	61.7%	22.0%	9.5%	-	6.1%	-

2006 Actual Seats	28	0	0	0	0	0
democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	28	0	0	0	0	0
Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	28	0	0	0	0	0
LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	28	0	0	0	0	0

Seats after 2004 Election	26	2	0	0	0	0

British Columbia	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
2006 Actual Results	37.3%	27.6%	28.6%	-	5.3%	-
SES/CPAC	34%	36%	23%	-	7%	-
2006 4-Poll Average	34.8%	31.0%	28.2%	-	5.7%	-

2004 Election Results	36.3%	28.6%	26.6%	-	6.3%	-

2006 Actual Seats	17	9	10	0	0	0
democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	19	9	8	0	0	0
Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	19	6	11	0	0	0
LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	20	7	9	0	0	0

Seats after 2004 Election	22	8	5	0	0	1

Territories	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
2006 Actual Results	23.4%	40.8%	20.0%	-	3.7%	-
2004 Election Results	18.0%	44.4%	28.7%	-	4.2%	-

2006 Actual Seats	0	2	1	0	0	0
democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	0	2	1	0	0	0
Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	0	2	1	0	0	0

Seats after 2004 Election	0	3	0	0	0	0

Thanks for all your hard work. Great job.

As a sidebar, the Tories picked up 2 seats in 905. Greg Morrow of Democratic Space projected a 7 seat Tory pickup. In the 2 seats he was right about, the result was close, and in the 5 seats he was wrong about, the result was not close at all. That SES poll showing a fat Liberal lead at the end, and a 5% swing to the Liberals in the last two or three days, appears to have been right.

I noticed the Atlantic Canada table was slightly off on the seat count - I inverted the Newfoundland results in my spreadsheet. Here's a revised chart for future reference:

Atlantic Canada	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
2006 Actual Results	34.5%	39.9%	22.7%	-	3.6%	-
SES/CPAC	29%	44%	22%	-	5%	-
2006 4-Poll Average	32.8%	39.0%	24.6%	-	3.2%	-

2004 Election Results	30.0%	43.8%	22.6%	-	3.0%	-

2006 Actual Seats	9	20	3	0	0	0
democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	11	18	3	0	0	0
Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	8	21	3	0	0	0
LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	12	16	4	0	0	0

Seats after 2004 Election	7	22	3	0	0	0