Canadian Election Primer

Various | 1/23/06 | conservative in nyc

[conservative in nyc]

Canadian Election At a Glance Our neigbors to the north are going to the polls today to elect a new Parliament.  308 seats are up for grabs in the House of Commons.  If recent polls are to be believed, the Conservative Party of Canada should win enough seats to form a minority government. Canada's provinces are divided into election districts called ridings, which are akin to congressional districts in the U.S.  Like elections for the U.S. House, Canada has a first-past-the-post system, meaning that he who gets the most votes wins the riding.  A party needs to win 155 or more ridings to gain a majority. Immediately before the election was called, the Liberal Party (a.k.a. Grits) lead by Paul Martin of Quebec held a plurality of 135 seats and held the Prime Minister's Office and formed a minority government with ad hoc support from members of the other 3 parties.  The Conservative Party (a.k.a. Tories), lead by Stephen Harper from Alberta, was the Official Opposition, holding 98 seats.  The Quebec separatist party, the Bloc Quebecois, was next at 53 seats, while the socialist/unionist NDP (a.k.a. New Democratic Party or Dippers) held 18 seats.  Four seats were held by Independents and 2 were vacant. The final election polling shows the Tories with an average of a 10-point lead over the Liberals.  However, because the final 2004 polling results didn't come very close to the final official tally, there is a question about whether the recent polls will again prove to be inaccurate.   In 2004, a late switch from the NDP to the Liberals in Ontario may have cost the Tories the election.  This was not picked up by the 2004 polls - likely because the pollsters stopped polling the week before the election.  This time, three pollsters continued polling over the weekend.  And unlike in 2004, the Tories led in the pre-election polls for the full week before the election.  (In the pre-2004 polls, the Liberals were slightly ahead or statistically tied).	Poll/Party	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
	2006 4-Poll Average	37.1%	27.8%	18.7%	11.3%	5.1%	-
	2004 Election Results	29.6%	36.7%	15.7%	12.4%	4.9%	-
	2004 3-Poll Average	30.9%	32.9%	18.7%	11.7%	5.0%	-
	democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	128	94	29	56	0	1
	Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	118	104	29	56	0	1
	LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	140	78	33	56	0	1
	Ipsos Reid/Global Final 2006 Seat Prediction	150	64	36	58	0	0
	Seats after 2004 Election	99	135	19	54	0	1
	Seats At Dissolution	98	133	18	53	0	4
Canadian Poll Closing Times: 7:00 PM EST --- Polls close in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador 7:30 PM --- Polls close in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island 9:30 PM --- Polls close in Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta 10:00 PM --- Polls close in British Columbia Let's take a closer look at the elections, region-by-region.

The Canary in the Coal Mine --- How Goes Atlantic Canada? Polls close in Atlantic Canada 2-2 1/2 hours before the rest of the country.  However, due to a Canadian law that was recently upheld, official results will not be released by Elections Canada until after the polls close in British Columbia - 10PM EST.   "Unofficial" results may be available on the Internet, thanks to anonymous viewers of Atlantic Canadian TV. Atlantic Canada includes the provinces of Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.  The Tories did not do well in this region in 2004, pulling a mere 30.0% of the vote, which was abour 3 points higher than the last three 2004 opinion polls predicted.  The final 2006 polls are about 3 points better for the Tories. The Tories held 7 seats in the region immediately after the 2004 election.  If current seat models are accurate, the Tories should pick up 1-5 seats in the region. Key races in Atlantic Canada may help predict the outcome of the election include:	Poll/Party	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
	2006 4-Poll Average	32.8%	39.0%	24.6%	-	3.2%	-
	2004 Election Results	30.0%	43.8%	22.6%	-	3.0%	-
	2004 3-Poll Average	26.7%	42.7%	26.3%	0.7%	3.7%	-
	democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	11	18	3	0	0	0
	Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	8	21	3	0	0	0
	LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	12	16	4	0	0	0
	Seats after 2004 Election	7	22	3	0	0	0
7:00 PM --- Newfoundland and Labrador Key questions: Can the Conservatives pick up a seat or 2?  Will the Conservative Vote improve?  Will the Grits crumble?  And if they do, how much of the bleeding flows toward the NDP? Seats After 2004 Election: 2 Conservative, 5 Liberal 2004 Election Results: Conservative: 32.3% - Liberal - 48.0% - NDP 17.5% - Green 1.6% 2006 Omnifacts Bristol/HCH Newfoundland Poll: Conservative: 40% - Liberal - 48% - NDP 12% - Other 0% (Jan 10-12) NTV/Telelink Poll: Conservative: 40.5% - Liberal 46.4% - NDP 11.4% - Green 1.7% (January 5-9; MOE +/-3.1%) The Conservatives are running about 8 points above their 2004 totals in Newfoundland, according to two polls of the province taken in early- to mid- January.  Will this lead hold?  And will it translate into additional seats?  The most likely pickup is Avalon, where Conservative Fabian Manning was 2 points ahead of Liberal newcomer Bill Morrow, according to the stale NTV/Telelink old.  All but the Election Prediction Project project this riding will turn Tory.  If it does, it might be a good night for the Conservatives.  If it doesn't, the Conservatives can win a minority government without it.  While the Tories are expected to win  St. John's East, the riding may be a bellwether - if the Tories win by less than 5 points, it may be a tough night.  If the Tories take 4 or more ridings in Newfoundland, the Liberals should be scared and deeply saddened.
7:30PM -- Prince Edward Island Key Question: Can the Tories steal a seat on the Island? Seats After 2004 Election: 4 Liberal 2004 Election Results: Conservative: 30.7% - Liberal - 52.5% - NDP 12.5% - Green 4.2% 2006 Omnifacts Bristol/HCH PEI Poll: Conservative: 34% - Liberal - 50% - NDP 11% - Other 3% (Jan 10-12) The Tories are not expected to win any PEI ridings.  If they do, they will likely win seats in every province, and the Liberals are in deep trouble.  Charlottetown was touted by the Election Prediction Project as too close to call at one time after Tory leader Stephen Harper paid a visit.  It is now safely back in the Liberal column in every projection.
7:30PM --- Nova Scotia Key Questions: Do Kings-Hants and West Nova go o-va?  And how much support trickles to the NDP in Dipper-friendly Halfax? Seats After 2004 Election:  3 Conservative 3, 6 Liberal, 2 NDP 2004 Election Results: Conservative: 28.0% - Liberal - 39.7% - NDP 28.4% - Green 3.3% 2006 Omnifacts Bristol/HCH Nova Scotia Poll: Conservative: 32% - Liberal - 41% - NDP 24% - Other 3% (Jan 10-12) The Liberals are as strong as they were in 2004 in Nova Scotia, if the Ominfacts Bristol poll is correct.  Nevertheless, can the Conservatives kick Red Tory traitor Scott Brison out of office in Kings-Hants?  And can the Conservatives pick up West Nova?  Chances are, both seats will remain in Liberal hands.  And just how well will the NDP do in the Halifax area?  The results there (especially in Dartmouth-Cole Harbor) might be coming attractions for what is going to happen in Toronto.
7:30PM --- New Brunswick Key Question: How many seats can the Tories gain? Seats After 2004 Election: 7 Liberal, 2 Conservatives, 1 NDP 2004 Election Results: Conservative: 31.1% - Liberal - 44.8% - NDP 20.6% - Green 3.4% 2006 Omnifacts Bristol/HCH New Brunswick Poll: Conservative: 42% - Liberal - 41% - NDP 15% - Other 2% (Jan 10-12) The Omnifacts Bristol poll looks best for the Tories in New Brunswick, a province where the Tories may gain anywhere from 1-4 seats.  Saint John is the most likely pickups.  If Tory John Wallace can't win there, the party may be in trouble nationwide.  Other ridings to watch include Tobique-Mactaquac and Madawaska--Restigouche on the U.S. border and Mirimachi, across the St. Lawrence Seaway from Quebec, where a former Liberal MLA running as an independent may siphon votes away from the Grits.

As Quebec Turns --- How Low will the Grits Go? 9:30PM -- Quebec The Conservatives were pummelled in Quebec in 2004, gaining less than 10% of the vote and winning 0 ridings.  The Tory's fortunes have turned drastically, as fed up Quebecers turn their back on the corrupt Grits who came into office in 2004 bearing "gifts" like Adscam and corruption.  La Belle Province may be La Bellwether Province in 2006.  The Tories are expected by all to take at least 2 ridings (Louis-Saint-Laurent in Quebec City and Beauce, south of the City), will likely take another (Pontiac, a large riding across the river from Ottawa), and, according to democraticSPACE and LISPOP, may take 3-6 seats more.  These ridings are likely in the Quebec City area - generally south of the St. Lawrence Seaway - with names like Lévis--Bellechasse and Mégantic--L'Érable.  And the Tories may even make headway in Jonquière--Alma, a usually Bloc-friendly city where the Liberal essentially dropped of the race, because he was polling less than 5% of the vote.  His campaign manager is supporting the Conservative candidate.  Most of these seats would be taken from the Bloc. In Montreal, the Bloc is expected to gain at the expense of the Grits, in ridings like Ahuntsic and Papineau.  There's even a very remote chance that Prime Minister Paul Martin will lose his riding of Lasalle-Emard.  And it is possible that the Liberals may wiped out of Quebec outside Montreal - except for the urban Hull-Aylmer riding across the river from Ottawa.  Silly government workers! Independent right-wing radio talk show host Andre Arthur is expected to take the Quebec City-area riding of Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier from the Bloc.	Quebec at a Glance	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
	2006 4-Poll Average	25.1%	14.9%	8.5%	47.1%	3.9%	-
	2004 Election Results	8.8%	33.9%	4.6%	48.9%	3.2%	-
	2004 4-Poll Average	10.5%	30.5%	5.8%	49.5%	3.7%	-
	democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	6	12	0	56	0	1
	Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	3	15	0	56	0	1
	LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	9	9	0	56	0	1
	Seats after 2004 Election	0	21	0	54	0	0

Ontario --- The Electoral Heartland 9:30 PM -- Ontario Just as in 2004, Ontario will decide who will be living at 24 Sussex Drive for the next few years.  In 2004, the Ontario pre-election polls were spectaculary wrong - Liberal support was underestimated by an average of 6 percent.  NDP voters may have jumped on the Liberal bandwagon at the last minute. The good news:  The 2006 polls are slightly better for the Conservatives than the bad 2004 - Conservative support is an average of  3 points higher; Liberal support an average of 3 points lower.  So if the 2006 pre-election polls are spectacularly wrong, they might be spectacularly less wrong.  The bad news: Some Ontario polls are worse than others, showing the Tories behind the Liberals.  Hopefully, the pre-election polls are right this time; if they are, the Tories should pick up 20-30 seats in Ontario.  If they are not, the Tories may still pick up some seats, depending on NDP support.  As in 2005, the election will be won or lost in Ontario. There are far too many competitive races to mention by name.  Check the Election Prediction Project and democraticSPACE websites linked to the right for name.  In general, the Tories need to gain in the so-called "905 ridings" near Toronto and in Southwest and Eastern Ontario, and the NDP might make inroads in urban "416" Toronto.  In one particular race in Newmarket-Aurora (north of Toronto),  Liberal traitor Belinda Stronach is expected to lose her seat.  Ms. Stronach, Bill Clinton's umm..."friend"... narrowly won as a Conservative in 2004 but left the Tory party to prop up the Liberal government for a few months.  You won't hear much good said about Ms. Stronach on our Canadian siter site, Free Dominion.	Poll/Party	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
	2006 4-Poll Average	36.5%	35.6%	21.8%	-	5.6%	-
	2004 Election Results	31.5%	44.7%	18.1%	-	4.4%
	2004 3-Poll Average	33.7%	38.3%	22.0%	0.3%	5.0%	-
	democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	44	49	13	0	0	0
	Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	41	55	10	0	0	0
	LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	51	40	15	0	0	0
	Seats after 2004 Election	24	75	7	0	0	0

Conservative Little House on the Prairies? The Conservatives swept though Manitoba and Saskatchewan in 2004, taking over 40% of the vote, a bit higher than expected.  Can they keep their gains?  Most pollsters say yes.  And the poll numbers are even better this time round. 9:30 PM -- Manitoba Seats After 2004 Election: 7 Conservative, 4 Liberal, 3 NDP 2004 Election Results: Conservative: 39.1% - Liberal - 27.2% - NDP 23.5% - Green 2.7% Key question: Can the Conservatives gain a few seats in Winnipeg? If the seat projectors are correct, not much should change in Manitoba.  If the Tories are having a very good night and the Liberals collapse, the Conservatives might pick up the Winnipeg-area ridings of Winnipeg South, Winnipeg Centre and/or Saint Boniface from the Liberals.  Each race should be very close.  In Churchill, former Dipper Bev Desjarlais is running as an independent after she was kicked out of the party for voting against same-sex marriage.  That might allow  Liberal Tina Keeper to sneak in and grab this heavily rural riding with a large aboriginal population.	Polls/Parties	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
	2006 4-Poll Average	45.8%	24.0%	24.5%	-	5.0%	-
	2004 Election Results	40.4%	30.3%	23.4%	-	2.7%	-
	2004 3-Poll Average	37.3%	31.7%	26.3%	0.3%	4.0%	-
	democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	20	4	4	0	0	0
	Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	19	4	5	0	0	0
	LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	20	6	5	0	0	0
	Seats after 2004 Election	20	4	4	0	0	0
9:30PM -- Saskatchewan Seats After 2004 Election: 13 Conservative, 1 Liberal 2004 Election Results: Conservative: 41.8% - Liberal - 27.2% - NDP 23.4% - Green 2.7% Key questions:  Good day for Goodale?  And what is the Election Prediction Project not telling us?   Tory fever swept through Saskatchewan in 2004, even though the Conservatives only received 41.8% of the vote.  Split voting between the Liberals and NDP allowed the the Tories to take all but one riding, Wascana, which is held by Liberal Finance Minister Ralph Goodale.  Mr. Goodale should remain in office, according to the seat projections.  Election Prediction Project puts Regina-Qu'Appelle in the NDP column for some reason.  I'm scratching my head over that - the riding wasn't THAT close in 2004 (unlike Palliser, which was VERY close in 2004, but Conservatives lead there by 12% in 2006, according to a Regina Leader Post poll).  Regina Qu'Appelle shouldn't even be close, according to democraticSpace.

A Clean Sweep in Alberta? 9:30 PM -- Alberta Liberal incumbent and former Progressive Conservative David Kilgour isn't running for reelection in Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont.  Conservative Mike Lake is supposed to win fairly easily.  The only real question is whether "landslide" Anne McLellan will win Edmonton Centre by a handful of votes again.  Current polling suggests Conservative Laurie Hawn will send Annie-take-your-guns packing - he's up by about 7 points in two recent polls.	Polls/Parties	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
	2006 4-Poll Average	64.1%	15.3%	13.0%	-	7.0%	-
	2004 Election Results	61.7%	22.0%	9.5%	-	6.1%	-
	2004 3-Poll Average	59.7%	22.0%	12.0%	-	5.0%
	democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	28	0	0	0	0	0
	Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	28	0	0	0	0	0
	LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	28	0	0	0	0	0
	Seats after 2004 Election	26	2	0	0	0	0

The Election --- And the Conservatives' Chances --- End in British Columbia 10:00 PM -- British Columbia British Columbia will be the last province to report.  And it may dictate whether the Conservatives take a minority or a majority of seats in the House of Commons. The bad news - the Tories are running behind in the polls in B.C. this time and will likely lose 2-3 seats.  The good news - most of those seats will likely go to the NDP, if the seat projections are correct.  Because many contests in British Columbia are competitive three party races, this region is tougher to call. Newton-North Delta and New Westiminster-Coquitlam in the Vancouver area were very close in 2004 and are trending NDP.   The Conservatives were probably going to keep  British Columbia Southern Interior until their candidate, Derek Zeisman, was charged with smuggling from the U.S.  He's not welcome to sit in the Conservative caucus if he wins until the charges are cleared.  That riding was also a very close contest with the NDP in 2004.  The Grits are at risk in their two Vancouver Island ridings, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca and Victoria.	Polls/Parties	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
	2006 4-Poll Average	34.8%	31.0%	28.2%	-	5.7%	-
	2004 Election Results	36.3%	28.6%	26.6%	-	6.3%	-
	2004 3-Poll Average	38.7%	27.3%	25.7%	-	7.0%
	democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	19	9	8	0	0	0
	Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	19	6	11	0	0	0
	LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	20	7	9	0	0	0
	Seats after 2004 Election	22	8	5	0	0	1

The Great White North of the Great White North 2004 Election Results Yukon: Conservative: 20.9% - Liberal - 45.7% - NDP 25.7% - Green 4.2% 2004 Election Results Northwest Territories: Conservative: 17.2% - Liberal - 39.4% - NDP 39.1% - Green 4.3% 2004 Election Results Nunivat: Conservative: 14.4% - Liberal - 51.3% - NDP 15.2% - Green 3.3% The Great White North of the Great White North is expected to remain Grit and Dipperland.  But  democraticSPACE and (probably) Election Prediction Project think that the NDP Candidate Dennis Bevington will unseat the Liberal in Western Arctic (NWT).  The race was razor close in 2004.	Polls/Parties	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
	2004 Election Results	18.0%	44.4%	28.7%	-	4.2%	-
	democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	0	2	1	0	0	0
	Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	0	2	1	0	0	0
	Seats after 2004 Election	0	3	0	0	0	0

[Torie]

Thanks for all your hard work. Great job.

As a sidebar, the Tories picked up 2 seats in 905. Greg Morrow of Democratic Space projected a 7 seat Tory pickup. In the 2 seats he was right about, the result was close, and in the 5 seats he was wrong about, the result was not close at all. That SES poll showing a fat Liberal lead at the end, and a 5% swing to the Liberals in the last two or three days, appears to have been right.

[conservative in nyc]

I noticed the Atlantic Canada table was slightly off on the seat count - I inverted the Newfoundland results in my spreadsheet. Here's a revised chart for future reference:

Atlantic Canada	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
2006 Actual Results	34.5%	39.9%	22.7%	-	3.6%	-
SES/CPAC	29%	44%	22%	-	5%	-
2006 4-Poll Average	32.8%	39.0%	24.6%	-	3.2%	-
2004 Election Results	30.0%	43.8%	22.6%	-	3.0%	-
2006 Actual Seats	9	20	3	0	0	0
democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	11	18	3	0	0	0
Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	8	21	3	0	0	0
LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	12	16	4	0	0	0
Seats after 2004 Election	7	22	3	0	0	0