Posted on 01/15/2006 7:42:52 PM PST by maui_hawaii
Freepers---
Since you guys are literally the cream of the crop of political analysis I thought I would ask your opinions about the whole DeLay situation.
For the record I don't live in DeLay's district and I haven't followed it that much at all. This post is for informational purposes only. If nothing else it will be a situational report for those interested in such a high profile race.
Several candidates have all thrown their hats into the ring...Three of DeLay's opponents — Campbell, Pat Baig and Mike Fjetland — are fellow Republicans. A fourth, Nick Lampson, is a conservative Democrat.
According to news reports:
While DeLay‘s campaign spokeswoman, Shannon Flaherty, has dismissed Fjetland and Baig with disparaging quips, she said DeLay welcomes Campbell to the race and to hearing his ideas.
From what I can gather DeLay takes Campbell seriously, and not to mention they are actually friends somewhat. Based on what I read on the net Campbell has been a long term GOP man etc etc. He's pretty conservative but he's not abrasive like DeLay is.
Having said that, another report says:
"Tom Campbell at least has Republican credentials," Fort Bend County GOP chairman Eric Thode said. "Having said that, it doesn‘t translate into one iota of support or money. He is 100 percent absolutely unknown in this county."
Here is a link to Campbell's web page. Under "platform" it gives a basis of what he's about, although its brief.
Since this is in the media all the time, here is what I got out of it thus far...
The media/left hate DeLay. At the same time his popularity isn't rampant in the really conservative district as many people believe.
With that said, the constituents will either A) vote for DeLay just to piss off the media/left or B) vote for another conservative candidate.
So, thus far Campbell seems to be viable.
Based on what little I have gathered, if DeLay goes down in the courts, who else is left?
Secondly, Campbell comes across as a 'humble conservative', not the brash and abrasive 'in your face' kind of politician that DeLay comes across as...
Any input is welcome on any and all of the candidates....
1. Some elements in the RNC view DeLay as a liability
2. The RNC wants some insurance in case DeLay blows up before the primary.
My money is on #1. Otherwise, the RNC members would keep a low profile until DeLay got in trouble.
SolidSupplySide is saying the same stuff thus far as I have heard...
I know you posted #73 before reading my others...but lets not call this a DeLay bash. Because its not.
In other words this goes back to my other posts about the problems in the district being larger than DeLay alone or any specific charges against him...
Yeah, right. I'll play "kindergarten teacher" with you. I'm talking about the following exchange between you and Xenalyte, which can easily be followed in the thread:
Xena's original comment:
To: maui_hawaii; HoustonCurmudgeon; anymouse; Dog Gone
I can comment on one item: Eric Thode seems unpopular with the Republican establishment in his home county.
Ping to a few guys who know the inner workings!
Your reply:
To: Xenalyte
Do tell. Please expand....
Now, my question to you, again, that you claim to be unable to understand:
I can understand why someone outside of DeLay's district would be interested in the events surrounding DeLay, but why the heck would *anybody* oustide of Fort Bend County be interested in digging up stuff on the chairman of the Republican Party of Fort Bend County? And why would *that* be relevant to your curiosity of DeLay?
Really, your digging seems to have ulterior motives of some sort. If you are really interested in the background on DeLay matters, there is a direct link to every article posted here and all of the many discussions. Just in case you can't find it at the top of the "latest posts" page, here it is.
It appears you could be talking about Thode here. First of all, Ft. Bend is only about a third of the district. Ft. Bend politics are unknown to an overwhelming number of voters in the district. Ft. Bend is the swing area of CD22, so DeLay's base in SE Harris County and Brazoria County don't know and generally don't care what Thode is doing.
Lastly, Thode has moved out of Ft. Bend County. He hasn't been honorable enough to resign as Republican Chairman, but he won't be on the ballot even in Ft. Bend in March.
If you weren't talking about Thode, your comment is too vague for me to understand.
Ability to understand isn't in the cards here....not having accurate information is though.
Why whoever the person you mentioned (I don't know him by name) is relevant is summed up nicely by SolidSupplySide.
Per my other posts on this thread you will note that the story goes that there is not a lot of content people in DeLay's district for several reasons.
1. Its not all about DeLay's charges, trumped up or not...
2. It is about the impression that some have that the party leadership are royal jerks there, including some of DeLay's folks. That as well as DeLay is being made into a political liability, sometimes by his own folks.
I am talking more along the lines of a long term entrenched buearacracy that people are tiring of...
So in what I can gather the district isn't about the shift left...but rather there is an itching to clean house.
Hey! You're describing me!
That has to stop and here and now is as good as any for a time and place!
...what happens if DeLay becomes a Gingrich?
Can't happen unless WE let it happen. I'll cross that bridge when I get to it.
1. Some elements in the RNC view DeLay as a liability
2. The RNC wants some insurance in case DeLay blows up before the primary.
My money is on #1. Otherwise, the RNC members would keep a low profile until DeLay got in trouble.
I don't mind one bit being FAR more straight forward than that! How's this?
The republican party, and especially the RNC is currently full of RINOS who dislike DeLay almost as much as the dimocrats and will do everything in their power to torpedo him every chance they get!!
Apparently you are not alone.
I compliment you on keeping your cool, which is another reason I am suspicious of you. :-) (I'm incorrigible)
I would suggest that you take some "poll" results...especiallt where the Houston Comical is involved:
From the Lone Star Times:
"Hendee emails Murray re: Chron DeLay poll
by David Benzion | 01/19/2006 8:43 am | Alert moderator
Dr. Richard Murray and associates appear to have made contact with Edd Hendee; we aren’t privy to the professor’s emails (and wouldn’t publish them without his permission, even if we were), but Edd has authorized LST to openly publish his response, which we do below:
I appreciate your interest in the discussion - glad to oblige. While I am a conservative - I’m also transparent on this and other issues. I support DeLay- know DeLay - admire and respect DeLay. No crime in being a conservative, liberal, Republican or Democrat…unless you feign neutrality. After some simple research - I found that you, on the other hand, are not forthcoming with your relationships, your past activism, your organizations, or your motivations. That compromised your credibility and explains volumes of how a man of such credentials could put out a flawed poll. Let me explain.
Not one person qualified to review polls other than yourself has defended the poll. Here are the objections I have developed to the poll - using qualified analysts objections.
Chris Wilson (DC) and Dr. David Hill (Texas) - both nationally renowned pollsters have stated on air that the poll is flawed - non standard at best. Wilson stated it didn’t follow generally accepted practices - Hill was less complimentary. They both stated that they wouldn’t conduct a poll which included all respondents (including Dems and Inds) in their choice for Repub primary choice. Take them out - DeLay has 67% of likely primary vote - hardly what your poll reflected. Your poll showed DeLay at 21% in the primary - quite a difference. As to the +/-4% - neither of these pollsters accept that you can accomplish that with less than 200 Repub responses. Again - not my opinion but theirs.
Additionally these "Republican primary voters" were NOT asked if they actually voted in the last Repub primary. In fact there is no verification that they have a history of voting in Repub primaries. In response you state "cross over votes" as you justification for including all respondents in the primary poll. You may want to review the voting history of Dist. 22 - I’m sure you won’t find that % of crossover votes in the last few years. Your defense is completely unsupportable.
You have access to poll phone lists of those who have historically voted in Repub primaries in Dist 22 - you chose not to use them - flawed when analyzing primary results. Perhaps you can demonstrate a list of clients who have ordered similar size and inclusive polls for primary analysis.
Your name is all over the Internet as a Democrat organizer and operative - specifically in your son’s blogs - hammering DeLay personally and forming front organizations to counter the Republicans. You are biased in this race - no question - it’s not even up for debate.
Your son, Keir Murray, serves on with you on a board of just 3 members - his consulting partner as the 3rd board members. He is active as a Democrat political consultant - currently on the payroll for Nick Lampson for the last 2 quarterly reporting periods. In the quarter ending 10/31/05 alone your son was paid $6000 for consulting services.
Your poll was used by the Chronicle and Channel 13 to demonstrate political vulnerability of DeLay. If the poll was mis-used or mis-quoted - can you kindly copy me with your email in which you protest the conclusions drawn or caution against overreaching? Surely you would be on record if your client misinterpreted your data.
Your poll has been compromised on statistical grounds as well as personal bias and family contact with the Demo candidate running against DeLay.
To use your words - or those of Sen. Moynihan - you’re entitled to your opinion - but it will be exactly that - opinion only not deserving of any professional respect on this poll. The facts? They disappeared when the inside dealings were exposed.
Perhaps you should share this email with a disinterested (read - not a Demo operative) pollster or political adviser. I’d be interested in their response.
Edd Hendee"
Mr. Hendee is a local radio talk show host (700 KSEV) as well as owner of the "Taste Of Texas" steakhouse.
It's also interesting to note that the local support for Tom DeLay has resulted in record breaking fund raising for his re-election campaign since this assault on his character was renewed by the RAT DA, Ronnie Earle and the Houston Comical.
Ok, I'll bite. How can one not be a fiscal conservative, and still be a conservative?
I don't know. There's something about the concept of a social conservative who favors freely spending other people's money (i.e., tax dollars) that strikes me as self-contradictory. Isn't social conservatism built on the notions of restraint, self-reliance, and the value of private initiative and property?
Steve Stockman has indicated he will run as an Independent. I don't know if he did file or not by close of filing on Jan. 2. Stockman was the Republican that knocked off Jack Brooks in the old 9th District in 1994 and lost the next election to Lampson who is now in this race in the 22nd as the democrat.
I didn't base my post or posts on that particular poll, or any poll for that matter.
As far as I am concerned (and as far as I can tell) A) this seat is going to remain Republican no matter what, so basically the argument is on which Republican will better serve the district.
I honestly think DeLay will probably win. If he does thats fine by me. Its like choosing between cherry cheesecake and strawberry cheesecake.
However the point of the thread is that there are some conservatives in the district that don't like the way DeLay does stuff and an alternative conservative candidate has seemingly emerged.
These voters are not about to change their core values, but they are asking if DeLay is the only one that can represent them. So, again, a conservative is going to win either way.
The punches are already starting...One camp says DeLay isn't the kind of Rep that people think of him as. He takes big money from special interests. He flies all around the place on leer jets eating 1000 dollar meals etc etc. I can't say if any of that is true or not, but that malcontent part of his district think (not including any polls) that he and his camp has gotten a little too over the top. Not to mention they don't like his harsh character when it comes to politics. Everyone cheered when President Bush asked for civility in politics.
The other side so far I haven't heard what they have to say about Campbell yet. Other than FR posters here defending DeLay there hasn't been much comment.
If that were my representative and it rang true that she's been taking special interest money and flying around like that I would think "I am voting against government largess and keep that up Mrs Rep and you will start representing govt excess" (albeit on a personal level)....
If anything sinks DeLay its going to be personal conduct, not so much voting record.
I think the groups of Republicans that are not entirely content with DeLay didn't spring up with the latest poll that you mentioned. They have been stewing for the last few election cycles.
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