Posted on 12/09/2005 10:49:04 AM PST by Travis McGee
I recently came across a photo which purports to show nearly a billion dollars in privately owned gold bullion, in one vault. The gold bullion is supposed to be held in trust for shareholders who purchase ETFs or gold shares in this company. Be that as it may, I don't want this thread to turn into a discussion of precious metal ETFs, or the price of gold, or gold versus fiat money etc.
I just have some questions which only an engineer can answer. Does this picture physically "add up?"
I rough-count approx. 150 pallets in sight, with approx. 80 bars per pallet. At about 100# per ingot, six pallets high, that makes each stack of pallets weigh about 48,000 freaking pounds!!
On plain wooden pallets! Not special steel pallets, or some other custom pallet designed to hold a billion dollars worth of gold in one room.
I once handled 10,000 pounds of lead in 50# ingots (for a boat keel) and it was impressively heavy when stacked up! Gold as we know is much heavier than lead, almost double. (Gold's specific gravity = 19.32, Lead = 11.34)
So I have a few phsical questions civil engineers might want to tackle. Can you determine likelihood that the gold bars are real, from this photo, based on the pallet materials, pallet construction and orientation, and the weight and distribution of the alleged gold ingots?
This is what made me wonder, when first I examined the photo.
#1: Look at how most of the wooden pallets' edges overhang the stack of gold bars below them. That is, the vertical wood risers between the two flat wooden "floors" are not directly on top of the gold below them. The vertical wood riser in the center is, but the risers on the sides are hanging out over space. Much of the crushing weight of those thousands and thousands of pounds of (supposed) gold is held on the thin horizontal wooden "floors." I think it could be shown (even with lead bars in a test) that such pallets, stacked exactly that way, would crack apart under the cumulative weight of gold. The gold ingots do not completely span the space between the risers, that is, they do not rest their ends directly over the wooden risers on the sides of the pallets, putting the risers in simple compression.
The vertical wood beams would have to be under the gold to directly support the incredible weight, and not hanging out over the edges, over thin air. That is my layman's opinion, anyway, based on stacking and handling 200 bars of lead, weighing 50# each, once upon a time.
Question #2: How did the forklift load those top pallets? The ceiling of the vault is seems rather low for a forklift to get them up there. Don't forklifts need some clear space above them for high lifts? At least 3 or 4 or so extra feet, I'm guessing from memory. So, did they use forklifts to carry the approx. 8,000# pre-loaded pallets into the vault? That is the clear implication from the orientation of every single pallet facing their open sides toward the camera.
OTOH, if you were loading empty wooden pallets by hand, bar-by-bar, every warehouseman should know (this is "warehouse 101") to alternate the orientation of the pallets 90 degrees, each pallet, to vastly increase the stability of the overall stack of pallets. If a stack of pallets broke or collapsed (crushed the wood and tumbled sideways, because they were all oriented the same direction) it could kill somebody under the ensuing gold avalanche. Remember, each pallet stack of gold weighs approx. 48,000#, based on my estimate of 100# per bar (which may be way off.) Alternating pallet directions for stability is a basic practice, if they were loaded in place by hand, bar-by-bar, and not by forklift.
So the only reason all of the pallets would be oriented this way toward the camera, would be because they were brought into the vault by a forklift, and not bar-by-bar, by hand. If so, could a forklift place those top pallets up there, given the ceiling space above the top pallets? And if they were loaded in place, bar-by-bar, what warehouseman would not alternate the pallet orientation, for stability and safety?
These question only raised my suspicions about the pictures. Now, an engineer might be able to total up the weight of the gold bars, figure out the crushing /compression strength of the wood, figure out how much of the total stack weight is carried to the floor through the vertical risers, and how much is simply downward weight upon the unsupported horizontal wooden pallet floors, and determine if this is a possible photo of actual gold, or possibly something else.
Since I can't go and physically inspect the ingots in this vault, I'm just curious what engineers think about the credibility of the photo, based on the physical sciences.
Remember, this is gold held in trust for investors, who pay their money, but do not, as far as I can determine, get to visit the secret vault and inspect it.
Maybe an engineering professor can give this question to his students, as a test.
That 48,000# was from was my mistaken 100# per bar estimate for EACH pallet, not the entire room.
I thought somebody said typical gold bars were more like 27 pounds. That would make the value about double what they need. That's the same ratio I got calculated a different way - about twice as much as they need.
"I'm just guessing, but the ingots in the photos look longer than 7 inches long to me."
But, gee...they look shorter than 7 inches to me.... :)
It looks like the load is pretty much carried by the beams. And it would probably take more weight than this to compress the 4"x8" beams.
Look at the pictures with the humans in it - those pallets are not the familiar size of pallet I'm used to seeing.
"Woof woof!"
And another thing, the wood grain looks pretty tight, probably oak.
Let's look for some size reference. Paper labels maybe?
Not a billion, but I'd take it in a pinch!
For an accurate assessment, just dial: 1-800-007-BOND
"Let's look for some size reference. Paper labels maybe?"
Oh actually I agree with you about the length...I was trying to make a joke..apparently a bad joke.
The weight does not appear to add up to what is presented. If somehow the weight is true, no one should be allowed in that room...the domino effect is in play.
all that glitters is not gold
I agree with you. From what I'm seeing, these pallets are only maybe 24" squares. It looks like the pallet supports are maybe 2 x 6's. Most everyday pallets are nominally 1 x 4's.
1/3 of the entire weight is two tons ...
Those tops and bottoms are NOT plywood. take a good look ... they're 6 one-by-four(?) natural boards. Each board is taking 1/6 of two tons or 333 pounds ... approximately the weight of one Michael Moore.
I think it would hold.
I think 100 # is too much.
I visited a gold mine on Northern Luzon in my younger days. My wife and I just showed up in our bright red volkswagen and they gave us a royal tour. I guess they figured two young Americans showing up un announced in the remote location made up de facto important.
Any way, they took us to the vault and handed my wife an ingot. It was so heavy she nearly dropped it. Had it been 100 # I know she would have.
If you check Kitco, the bar they have is 400 oz or 25 pounds.
The pallets would definitely be ok with these size bars.
Check Kitco.com bullion
I disagree.
I see an interior picture with taken with flash: note overhead fluorescent lighting.
Presuppose this is a vault with no other illumination, and the flash is bouncing off the gold in the foreground and hitting the gold immediately behind it.
The small flash on a pocket camera will do that ... the foreground is slightly overexposed, the background slightly underexposed.
The bottom line: Special "things" need "special" pallets.
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