Posted on 12/09/2005 10:49:04 AM PST by Travis McGee
I recently came across a photo which purports to show nearly a billion dollars in privately owned gold bullion, in one vault. The gold bullion is supposed to be held in trust for shareholders who purchase ETFs or gold shares in this company. Be that as it may, I don't want this thread to turn into a discussion of precious metal ETFs, or the price of gold, or gold versus fiat money etc.
I just have some questions which only an engineer can answer. Does this picture physically "add up?"
I rough-count approx. 150 pallets in sight, with approx. 80 bars per pallet. At about 100# per ingot, six pallets high, that makes each stack of pallets weigh about 48,000 freaking pounds!!
On plain wooden pallets! Not special steel pallets, or some other custom pallet designed to hold a billion dollars worth of gold in one room.
I once handled 10,000 pounds of lead in 50# ingots (for a boat keel) and it was impressively heavy when stacked up! Gold as we know is much heavier than lead, almost double. (Gold's specific gravity = 19.32, Lead = 11.34)
So I have a few phsical questions civil engineers might want to tackle. Can you determine likelihood that the gold bars are real, from this photo, based on the pallet materials, pallet construction and orientation, and the weight and distribution of the alleged gold ingots?
This is what made me wonder, when first I examined the photo.
#1: Look at how most of the wooden pallets' edges overhang the stack of gold bars below them. That is, the vertical wood risers between the two flat wooden "floors" are not directly on top of the gold below them. The vertical wood riser in the center is, but the risers on the sides are hanging out over space. Much of the crushing weight of those thousands and thousands of pounds of (supposed) gold is held on the thin horizontal wooden "floors." I think it could be shown (even with lead bars in a test) that such pallets, stacked exactly that way, would crack apart under the cumulative weight of gold. The gold ingots do not completely span the space between the risers, that is, they do not rest their ends directly over the wooden risers on the sides of the pallets, putting the risers in simple compression.
The vertical wood beams would have to be under the gold to directly support the incredible weight, and not hanging out over the edges, over thin air. That is my layman's opinion, anyway, based on stacking and handling 200 bars of lead, weighing 50# each, once upon a time.
Question #2: How did the forklift load those top pallets? The ceiling of the vault is seems rather low for a forklift to get them up there. Don't forklifts need some clear space above them for high lifts? At least 3 or 4 or so extra feet, I'm guessing from memory. So, did they use forklifts to carry the approx. 8,000# pre-loaded pallets into the vault? That is the clear implication from the orientation of every single pallet facing their open sides toward the camera.
OTOH, if you were loading empty wooden pallets by hand, bar-by-bar, every warehouseman should know (this is "warehouse 101") to alternate the orientation of the pallets 90 degrees, each pallet, to vastly increase the stability of the overall stack of pallets. If a stack of pallets broke or collapsed (crushed the wood and tumbled sideways, because they were all oriented the same direction) it could kill somebody under the ensuing gold avalanche. Remember, each pallet stack of gold weighs approx. 48,000#, based on my estimate of 100# per bar (which may be way off.) Alternating pallet directions for stability is a basic practice, if they were loaded in place by hand, bar-by-bar, and not by forklift.
So the only reason all of the pallets would be oriented this way toward the camera, would be because they were brought into the vault by a forklift, and not bar-by-bar, by hand. If so, could a forklift place those top pallets up there, given the ceiling space above the top pallets? And if they were loaded in place, bar-by-bar, what warehouseman would not alternate the pallet orientation, for stability and safety?
These question only raised my suspicions about the pictures. Now, an engineer might be able to total up the weight of the gold bars, figure out the crushing /compression strength of the wood, figure out how much of the total stack weight is carried to the floor through the vertical risers, and how much is simply downward weight upon the unsupported horizontal wooden pallet floors, and determine if this is a possible photo of actual gold, or possibly something else.
Since I can't go and physically inspect the ingots in this vault, I'm just curious what engineers think about the credibility of the photo, based on the physical sciences.
Remember, this is gold held in trust for investors, who pay their money, but do not, as far as I can determine, get to visit the secret vault and inspect it.
Maybe an engineering professor can give this question to his students, as a test.
Looks about right. Note some of the wood slats are bending under the weight. The little forklift at the local cement factory can handle the load.
I would have to inspect it personally to give an accurate estimate...
Sumpin' seems wrong with this picture....
Gold is made into a large number of different bars of different weights. The most well known are the large 'London Good Delivery Bars' which are traded internationally. These weigh about 400 Troy Ounces, i.e. 12.5 kg/ 27 lbs. Each. Others are denominated in kilogrammes, grammes, troy ounces, etc. In grammes, bars range from 1 g up to 10 kg. In troy oz, from 1/10 tr.oz. up to 400 tr.oz.. Other bars include tola bars and Tael bars
I copied this from gold.com
I don't have time to run real numbers, but if the load paths are directly through the bars and wood to ground and if the wood is sufficiently strong in compression, it looks real to me.
Take a look at the first full-view stack of pallets on the right. Just below the top pallet, it appears to be sitting on a sheet of 3/4" or 1" plywood. Notice how the very edge of the plywood is bending down under the weight - it would take a lot of weight to bend that wood with such a short moment arm (or lever length). So that top pallet of gold is probably real to provide enough weight to do that.
Fun speculation, though!
That one on the lesft, yeah, that one, that's mine.
You gotta problem with my handwriting?
If really gold, the weight would snap the plywood sheets. I say its fake.
each pallet only weighs 2160 lbs.
Where did you get a picture of my basement?!
Yep, a BILLION DOLLARS, on plain $5 wood pallets, with hand lettered "postit" labels?
http://www.streettracksgoldshares.com/images/ Check it out, you can see other angles and images of the same.
Paging Odd Job!!
My only question involves the pallets at the bottom of the stacks . . . How do they hold up the entire load above them without breaking?
Looks like the vaults at the Depository Trust company down in the Wall Street district.
Typical gold bar is 400 troy ounces or 27.4 lbs.
Have then FedEx a pallet or two to my place and I will have an answer for you within a week.
If you look at the center of each stack of gold, there is a stack of ingots direstly under the central beam of each pallet. The weight of the pallets is therefore concentrated onthe gold beneath it and the compresive strength of the blocks of solid wood underneath.
It's possible.
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