Rauschenberger - IL Lt gov; Backs Gidwitz for Governor

Conservative Elgin state Sen. Steve Rauschenberger will drop out of the Republican governor’s race today to become the running mate of moderate Ron Gidwitz in an attempt to salvage both men’s statewide hopes next year.

The move to form a balanced ideological team comes a week after state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka entered the GOP governor primary amid a state party poll that showed her with a wide lead with many voters still undecided.

While Gidwitz and Rauschenberger had been talking prior to that, the meeting helped speed up their decision to join forces after perceiving the party establishment was trying to clear the field for Topinka. Both have railed against the GOP establishment, even though Gidwitz has been a major campaign contributor over the years. That deck-shuffling took place after last Friday’s meeting at state GOP headquarters at which chairman Andy McKenna Jr. asked the candidates to reassess their chances in light of the poll.

Neither the Rauschenberger nor Gidwitz campaigns would comment Tuesday. But several sources close to both campaigns said the two have scheduled joint news conferences in Chicago and Springfield today to announce their decision to team up for the March 21 primary.

The decision shuffles the deck for GOP voters, leaving two moderates — Gidwitz and Topinka — vying against two conservatives — Aurora businessman Jim Oberweis and Bloomington state Sen. Bill Brady.

For Gidwitz, a millionaire who already has spent heavily on TV ads but whose popularity so far remains in the single digits, the addition of Rauschenberger brings a lieutenant governor candidate with strong state government credentials and at least the potential to woo some conservatives into his column.

But Rauschenberger also could be hurting his credibility with his conservative base of support by joining Gidwitz, who supports abortion and gay rights. Rauschenberger also will face questions today about how much money he’s getting from Gidwitz to run his lieutenant governor campaign.

For Rauschenberger, a move down the ticket is a way to stay in the political game after his governor bid failed to catch fire. Campaign fund raising long has been a problem for Rauschenberger, who had to let go campaign staff in recent months. Polls showed his support lagging in the single digits, well behind his strong third-place showing in last year’s U.S. Senate primary in which nearly every major newspaper in Illinois endorsed him.

Asked last Friday about his campaign’s financial woes, Rauschenberger told the Daily Herald: “We don’t have any cash problems at all. We just had two fund-raisers in the last two days and raised a little over $50,000.”

Rauschenberger also said he’d raised over $1 million already but didn’t know how much was left. “We’re going to kind of spend aggressively. What we need to do is make this a two-way race between Judy Baar Topinka and I,” he said.

The senator’s comments came minutes after he ripped Topinka up and down at a business group forum.

Ironically, Rauschenberger now could end up as Topinka’s running mate — the governor and lieutenant governor candidates run separate campaigns during the primary. Topinka is the early front-runner in the governor primary, and Rauschenberger, given his experience, would be the nominal front-runner in the lieutenant governor race.

Topinka’s campaign offered no comment Tuesday. Of all the candidates, her campaign had the most to gain with Rauschenberger still in the governor’s race since three conservatives would split a vote that’s easily the majority in GOP statewide primaries. Any votes that Gidwitz gets, meanwhile, are votes that likely otherwise would have gone to Topinka, a fellow moderate.

“It helps consolidate my support,” said Brady, who will vie with Oberweis for conservative voters.

“Steve’s making a good move for himself,” Brady said. “Whether it helps Ron Gidwitz remains to be seen.”

Brady said he contacted Rauschenberger after last Friday’s meeting to explore the two of them joining forces to run as governor and lieutenant governor. “I've not heard from him since,” said Brady, who reiterated that he’s in the governor’s race to stay.

The maneuvering also could force Topinka to pick a downstate lawmaker, Rep. Jim Watson of Jacksonville, as her running mate. Such a decision would afford Topinka the geographical balance the Gidwitz-Rauschenberger team lacks.

Other Republican lieutenant governor candidates are Kane County Recorder Sandy Wegman of Elgin and state Rep. Raymond Poe of Springfield.

Froehlich wins?
Gidwitz called for corrupt Kjellander to resign very early. He can thus get the support of the Froehlichs and Skoiens who think good government is the issue. Froehlich also thinks money is important. Paul and Gary could never support the Oberweis image of mean-spiritedness and anti-free markets in the primary. Brady and Topinka now vy for the support of the corrupt.

For me it is now a choice between Gidwitz and Oberweis since corruption is my #1 issue. Gidwitz will probably be as good (or at least as effective) as Oberweiss on taxes, spending, business regulation. So the question is social issues. Oberweiss is worse on immigration, flip flops on Life. It is unknown if either really cares about 2d amendment as they never mention it although they have nominal positions on it.

Who will be next? Will Brady or Oberweiss consolidate with each other? Or with Gidwitz or Topinka?

The corrupton wing of Brady's major support will push for him to back Topinka. Protecting their cash cow is #1 with them. If Brady doesn't drop out, they'll probably leave him for Topinka anyway.

Brady just does not have the gravitas or presence of a statewide candidate to go further. Just compare his frat-boy approach with the class act of Dan Rutherford in the adjacent St Senate District.

Immigration is an albatross for Oberweiss, mostly because Jim does a lousy job of handling his side of the issue. He is constantly on the defense. He needs to plat offense. So far he hasnt' been able to get there.

But Gidwitz will have to work hard to climb in the polls.

It's a new ball game.

For Rauschenberger, a move down the ticket is a way to stay in the political game after his governor bid failed to catch fire.

Hey Rauschenberger, it's STILL too early. Let conservatives enjoy the holidays first THEN they would have paid attention and donated to your campaign.

All of the Illinois conservatives are now going to stay home because you rushed your candidacy, panicked, and in desperation joined with a sleazy moderate who doesn't have a shot in H of winning.

EEE Smart to make tough decisions before the filing deadline in mid-December. Too often conservatives wait until it is too late to do anything about the situation. Timing is everything. The calendar dictates a rigid schedule of when you must do what (unless you're a Dem in NJ).

PF See TRG on Obie and 2A. He got mailings I didn't get.
Several times, eg on Teri O'Brien and Tom Roeser programs, Brady has said he opposes corruption by Blago and the Dems but will not oppose it by Republicans. Brady has specifically mention Blago's corruption in the placement of bonds and then has tried to protect Kjellander who is a central co-corrupter in Blago's corruption. The Dems can get away with a double standard. But Brady will soon discover that Republicans are held to a higher standard, both by non-Republicans ... and especially by the Peter Fitzgerald - PF Republicans.

Obie is now the conservative candidate, it would seem. Can he improve his campaign style and gain control of framing the issues?

Suppose that corruption and economic issues are the real issues in Illinois. (Taxes, spending, over regulation). Suppose that despite the bi-partisan past of Gidwitz, he is now for real on these issues. Although not a hard conservative, he certainly is no where as far left as Toopinka, nor even as far left of a Mark Kirk, who is to the right of Toopinka.

It's a new ballgame.

FTN's Jack, Lidia, Yvonne have been publicly supporting Obie. I assume Jack is kicking in $ either directly or "in kind". Their filings would show that. I'm not sure if the involvement right now is as individuals or as the PAC.

John Biver of the sister Renew organization was leaning to his close friend Rauschie. I'm not sure where John will now go. He just might stay uncommitted til January.

If Joe is a good campaign manager, he needs to find a way to teach (or have some specialist teach) Obie how to frame the issues and control the direction of a conversation.

Obie will be at the joint TapRoot-ICRC Christmas party this Sunday 2 - 5 pm. That will be an excellent time to check out the reality of the new ballgame. Will Brady and Gidwitz show at the Xmas party? If Gidwitz and Obie frame the corruption issue correctly, Brady will be toast. Brady is so much closer to the next George Lyan than to the next Peter Fitzgerald.

As I've expressed many times before, I'd like to see these candidates spend more money building the ground game and not just on TV, although that also is important.

The political odd couple of Gidwitz/Rauschenberger joining forces could force a political realignment with all the candidates vieing to hook up with a running mate that will explain their base of support. Gidwitz has the money, Rauschy has the name recongition and conservative credentials.

To balence out their weaknesses, the other Governor/Lt. Governor candidates could align as follows:

Topinka/Poe ---> Poe is unknown upstate and needs help with woman voters, Topinka needs to him to pull off a few gullible conservative crossover and pretend she "cares" about rural issues. Topinka gets someone down to earth, Poe uses Topinka to get GOP, Inc. behind him to cancel out Raunschenberger's support.

Oberweis/Kathuria ---> Oberweis' previous record of being the top "also ran" candidate helps Kathuria with much needed voter crediblity, having Kathuria as his running mate would sheild Oberweis from the "he's a meanie racist who hates immigrants and minorities" charge. Plus they line up nearly identical on the issues and can stump through the state on simular pro-gun, lower presciption drugs, deport illegal aliens platforms.

Brady/Wegman ---> Geographic balence, Brady is from Bloomington-Normal, a heavily Dem area surrounded by a sea of conservative votes in central Illinois, Wegman is from Elgin, a heavily Dem area surrounded by a sea of conservative votes in the Chicago 'burbs. Wegman helps Brady get the vote in the heavily GOP coller counties (Kane being the biggest prize), Brady helps Wegman emerge from Rausenberger's shadow in the Lt. Governor race when she is paired with a state Senator who is running strong in the polls.

I do find it offensive you refer to Brady as the "corruption" candidate because he hasn't trotted out a token "denouncement" of Kjellander. Going by those rules, half the Republican U.S. Senate candidates in 2004 were "corruption" candidates, including, of course, Oberweis. And if Gidwitz is a reformer for publically denouncing the establishment after getting in office thanks to them, then Corrine Wood was a "Reformer" too.

Bill, interesting and I agree with much in concept. But I find Poe and Wegman to be lightweights, both as candidates and in ability if elected. They'd be arguments for eliminating the office of Lt Gov which I favor, and Comptroller too.

Kathuria still needs to learn a lot about how to be a candidate and campaign. He is still too much the geek/nerd.

I don't think you grasp the corruption issue. Oberweiss, Cox, Jack Ryan, Rauschenberger and others have a long history of anti-corruption. They didn't just take that position recently.

Brady is vulnerable, not only for his position... but especially for the way he talks about it. Replay the Tom Roeser and Teri O'Brien programs. Brady blasted Blago for being corrupt. Roeser asked Brady about Kjellander. Brady went out of his way to praise, not only the person, but also the activities of Kj. Then Brady gratuitously attacked Blago's corruption specifically in the bonding process with other corrupt insiders. That is just plain stupid. Brady could have used the example of Blago and the garbage dump of Dick Mell's family. Brady could have used many other examples of corruption unrelated to bonds. But by using the example of bonds, Brady dimonstrated (yes dim) that he doesn't grasp the issue.

From what I hear second-hand about Bill Brady here in Bloomington-Normal I really fear that he will be the next George Lyan.

Of course you'll be at the TapRoot-ICRC Christmas Party this Sunday. It will be interesting to see the mood of the group there... and which candidates and "warlords" show up... and which work the room and which want to speak on mike. It's a party, not intended to have a formal agenda. The way things are done will have as great an impact as what is done or who does it at such an event.

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