Bush 'sank' GOP in Virginia

Washington Times ^ | November 10, 2005 | By Christina Bellantoni

[johnny7]

RICHMOND -- President Bush's sinking popularity helped seal Democrat Timothy M. Kaine's victory in Virginia's gubernatorial election Tuesday, politicians and pollsters said yesterday. "We know that George Bush is just killing us," said Delegate David B. Albo, a Republican who narrowly defeated his Democratic challenger in Fairfax County. "His popularity just brought the ticket down. There's no other way to explain it."

Mr. Kaine, the current lieutenant governor, defeated Republican Jerry W. Kilgore by six percentage points in a contest that had been a statistical dead heat in the days before the election.

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

So, time for us to learn, huh? Gilmore promised to eliminate the car tax. He won. No member of the GOP made governor since. And the car tax is higher than ever. A bunch of phony libs pretending to be republicans out here.

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

Kaine sounds like a cross between a jaded Roman and a jaded fruit. Erk! Glad I won't hear him much. Don't watch TV. FRegards....

[Stentor]

Just wait. The bushbot choir will be along shortly to sing his and the other RINO's praises.

Tiresome.

[kabar]

"Awful campaign" riiiight. It was brilliant and sure to be victorious back on Monday. Now it's awful when someone suggests Bush's appearances acted like concrete boots! The president is increasingly unpopular and it is entirely of his own making. The president is increasingly unpopular and it is entirely of his own making.

BS. It had nothing to do with Bush. Kilgore ran a poor campaign. His running mates who won, Bolling and McDonnell, both drew a significant amount of votes more than Kilgore. How do you explain that?

The Dems did a better job of turnout and Northern Virginia is trending more and more Dem. In 2004, Fairfax County went for Kerry, the first time in over 40 years that a Dem Presidential Candidate has done that. Kaine's margin of victory came essentially from Fairfax County (+60,000), Arlington County (+29,000); and Alexandria (+16,000)in Northern VA. When you include Richmond (+27,000), it is clear that there are some disturbing demographic and voting pattern trends for the GOP. It has nothing to do with Bush.

[NeoCaveman]

Did Kilgore promise a tax cut? I don't recall a tax cut being offered since Gilmore, who won.

No. Kilgore didn't even take the pledge not to raise taxes. No wonder he lost.

[kabar]

Did the GOP lose seats in the legislature, gain seats in the legislature, or remain the same?<.i><

Lost one seat in the House of Delegates. GOP has a 59 to 41 margin.

[sport]

That is pure unadultered bull shit.

Having said that, I will say this,The Repunlican Party hierarchy needs to decide if they want the Republican Party to remain in control of the Congress and Whitehouse, or not.

Should they decide that it would be nice to remain in control of these institutions, they then need to take a good long, hard look at who put thenm there.

Then they beed to do what they were elected to do and stop trying to appease and out Democrat the Democrats.

Or, in sawmill talk, they need to dance whit who brung them to the ball.

[kabar]

It is interesting to note that in 2001, Kilgore received more votes running for AG, more than a million, than any other candidate for GOV, Lt. Gov., or AG of either party. Moreover, his vote total exceeded that of Kaine this year. Go figure.

[doc30]

Even when Bush's popularity was at it's highest, just after 9/11, the 2001 elections in Virginia still produced a democrat governor.

[kabar]

I have read where this VA Governor's race ended with virtually the same GOP-Dem percentages as the last one did when the President's popularity was sky high after 9-11.

Virginians are almost predictable in their patterns of voting in such races. I don't agree with them but there it is...

True enough, but there are significant differences between 2001 and 2005, which should give the GOP some concern.

Warner received 984,177 votes in 2001 compared to Kaine's 1,022,478 in 2005. Kilgore outdrew Earley 909,540 to 887,234. What is interesting is what Warner and Earley did in NOVA compared to Kilgore and Kaine.

Warner won Fairfax County 146,537 to 120,799 for Earley. In 2005, Kaine won Fairfax County 163,195 to 103,009. Kaine had a 60,000 margin of victory compared to Warner's 26,000. Kilgore received 20,000 less votes than Earley. Similar results occurred in Arlington County and Alexandria. The Dems are turning out in greater numbers and the GOP vote is declining. It is no accident that Fairfax County went for a Dem (Kerry) in 2004 for the first time in over 40 years.

The bottom line is that the demographics of NOVA are rapidly changing and so are the voting patterns. My fear about Northern Virginia is that it will become the Detroit or Philadelphia of Virginia. Dem statewide candidates can amass such leads from Northern VA that it will guarantee them victory regardless of what happens elsewhere in the state. Over my past 26 years here, I have witnessed a remarkable political change, which I find disturbing. In addition to Fairfx, Loudon, and PW, add Arlington County and Alexandria. When you total them all up you almost get Kaine's margin of victory. Cities like Norfolk and Richmond are also in the mix.

[Cboldt]

Methinks this twerp is just looking for a scapegoat. Sad to say, but that is becoming an increasingly 'Pubbie politician position these days

It's been a common reaction for years - blame the voter instead of adjusting the party. Perot is the most often cited example I can think of. His candidacy is trotted out to justify the loss of the WH to the DEM party. I don't know who the bogeyman was when Dole ran, but you can bet the GOP-party-faithful do not see that loss as a GOP-induced problem either.

Losers tend to look and point outside for blame.

[kabar]

Since 1973, Virginia has had a Governor from the opposite party of whomever was President. During the Clinton years, they had Republican Governors. During Reagan and Bush I, they had Democrat Governors. During Nixon, Democrat, during Carter, Republican. A set pattern.

Don't buy into that pattern nonsense. Pure rationalization worthy of Louis Farahkan. Each election stands on its own. You could probably find other "correlations" such as eye or hair color. It boils down to the candidates. Fairfax County had not voted for a Dem candidate for President for over 40 years until Kerry won in 2004. That was a set pattern too.

[Jack Ian]

I agree. Congressman Moran(D-VA) hates IsreaL AND IS SCUM.
The RNC should have his drunken face on every TV ad in 2006.
But the MSM gives this guy a pass.

[patriciamary]

But,his visit should have been a boost and it was not.Bush has himself, his administration, and the party to blame.They sit back and take criticism for months,them he lightly fire back.It's pitiful.

[Jack Ian]

Kaine and his liberal pro abortion but I'm a good Catholic crap will not fly with the legislature and LT. Gov Bolling.
warner snowed the VA GOP once, but not this time.

[Jack Ian]

Exactly. Bush probably helped Bolling and McDonnell get elected. The GOP needs to give up the PC crap and start playing hardball again. Find as many DEM's in congress with ethics problems and hammer them starting with Rahm Emanuel in Chicago and his mobster donors.

[USS Alaska]

I just talked with Karl {Rove, he and I formed a secret cabal} and he told me that because the President's poll numbers are so low, that he believes that President Bush will NOT run in 2008. All freepers must call the Whitehouse and get President Bush to change his mind and run again. S/off

[johnny7]

Picking the one to blame is not important... understanding the WHY is.

[kabar]

I am less concerned about abortion, which is not a state matter since Roe vs Wade, but rather, about increased taxes. The property taxes have gone through the roof with the rapid appreciation of property. The Dems and their willing supporters in the GOP-controlled state legislature are willing to increase income and sales taxes. Kaine is a tax and spend liberal and Kilgore did not do a good job of separating himself from this ideology.

[robowombat]

Because he was in the fight of his political life. Albo won the last election handily. This year the rats went all out to beat him and rat strength had grown in his district. This is the result of changing demographics in No Virginia, A decade ago aside from Alexandria, Arlington (a left liberal rotten borough since the 1940s) and Falls Church all of northern Virginia was reliably Republican. The combination of new immigrant voters and the increasing population density is having the effect of urbanizing the inner suburban counties. Housing prices are among the highest nationwide and the upper middle class white collar 'knowledge professional' is more likely to find feminism, affirmative action, a pacifist foreign policy,
environmentalism (a particular pet rock with these people) and gay rights to be the most compelling issues. The result is a changing face of voters in Fairfax and even parts of Prince William County.

To his credit Albo recognized he had to fight the election and instead of imitating squish Republicanism, which is very popular among a large segment of the party leadership,
he came out fighting blasting his opponent at every opportunity as a big government, high taxing, gun grabbing adulator of the NEA and ACLU. Albo also spent a lot of time speaking at any group meeting that would invite him and doing personal contact operations at Metro stops. The strategy worked and he won with 52% of the vote it was much closer than past years. His district, the 44th, seems going more blue each election for reasons stated above. It is changing as the 42nd just to the north of his has. Until 1993 this district was held by a conservative Republican since then two female radiclib dems have held the seat. The dem incumbent beat a squish leaning repub easily this year.

Albo's continuing success shows conservatives who have teeth can survive. His frustration is in part due to demographics which none can control and a muted and wavering party message coming both from the state central committee and to a degree from across the Potomac.