Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part IV

NHC - NOAA ^ | 24 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Category Three Major Hurricane Wilma is barreling toward the Southwest Florida coastline. The storm is packing wind speeds of 125mph, moving NW at 20mph, with an enormous eye 65 miles in diameter. Landfall is anticipated shortly in Collier County between 6:00 and 7:00AM ET.

Storm surge flooding of 9 feet to 17 feet is possible along the coast near and to the south of where Wilma makes landfall. Storm surge of 5 to 8 feet is predicted for the Keys. The storm has spawned tornados throughout the Florida peninsula since yesterday evening.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Radar Still Image w/watches warnings
Melbourne Radar Still Image w/watches warnings
Key West Radar Still Image w/watches warnings
Tampa Bay Radar Still image w/watches warnings

Streaming Video:

WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Additional Resources:

Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24

[CedarDave]

If the governor was bashing the President and the federal response, they would have carried the presser all the way through.

< /sarcasm>

I wonder how much of the response to earlier FL storms was actually due to FEMA under Brown's direction, and how much was due to Jeb. Brown was touting in LA after the disaster his experience in Florida. I wonder if he actually performed in Florida or whether was just along in a support role while Jeb made all the decisions, but the totality of the effort made Brown look good.

On the cleanup, I saw an early morning story on Fox which showed the difference in storm damage in one city on the east coast between an older multistory office building with every floor damaged (broken glass, facades damaged or missing) and a modern multistory condo built after the codes were strengthened after Andrew. No obvious damage at all including windows. Very impressive.

[synbad600]

Yea, we were lucky. I must say though, it was more fierce than what was projected. I was scared for the first hour or two. I didn't think it would ever end. Good lesson to be learned. Never underestimate the power of even a cat one hurricane.

[KC Burke]

Vero is a nice town with some very fine people. Kind of a little know jewel. My son-in-law grew up there.

[You Dirty Rats]

October 25, 2005
Outage numbers by county
As of 11 am
Affected Counties Out Restored Affected
Alachua - - -
Baker - - -
Bradford - - -
Brevard 10,000 69,500 79,500
Broward 856,900 5,900 862,800
Charlotte 1,600 6,900 8,500
Clay - - -
Collier 126,400 43,200 169,600
Columbia - - -
DeSoto 900 4,000 4,900
Flagler - 200 200
Glades 2,500 900 3,400
Hendry 5,800 2,700 8,500
Highlands 400 - 400
Indian River 39,400 2,200 41,600
Lee 163,600 31,300 194,900
Manatee 2,800 11,800 14,600
Martin 82,200 2,400 84,600
Miami-Dade 908,700 47,800 956,500
Nassau - - -
Okeechobee 14,600 1,300 15,900
Palm Beach 641,800 21,700 663,500
Putnam - 100 100
Sarasota 4,400 14,200 18,600
Seminole - 1,100 1,100
St. Johns - - -
St. Lucie 101,900 1,000 102,900
Suwannee - - -
Union - - -
Volusia 100 9,200 9,300
TOTAL 2,964,000 277,400 3,241,400

http://www.fpl.com/storm/contents/wilma_outage.shtml

[Marak]

Checking in from Marco Island. We just got our power restored. LCEC expects to have 70% of the island's power restored today, but knowing their prior record, I would be willing to bet it will be 100%.

The expected surge on Marco did not occur, just as it has not in any of the previous hurricanes. Water in the canals rose to the top of the seawalls and no further. I cannot report on the beach as I have not been there yet.

There has been a bit of wind damage on the island, mostly screen cages and roofs. My own roof is now down to plywood and I lost two of four supporting pillars for the flat roof section. The remaining two pillars are leaning, which is a cause of concern. My screen cage is gone and my dock was damaged from the rising water. We did have three foot waves in the canal as Wilma tried to shove the entire bay into our canal.

The island's population is orderly and friendly with people helping one another. Our water system took damage and we are under boiling restrictions, but the national guard is here with water, ice, and MREs for those who need it.

Helicopters are overhead looking for people in trouble and surveying damage. Just about everyone has some damage, but it could have been much worse. Kudo's to those managing this emergency from the local boys up to Jeb and FEMA. Everyone seems to be doing whatever they can to help out.

[MIsunshine]

I don't have cable tv and since Rosa Parks died our local news is 100% tributes --didn't even get weather or Red Wing highlights last night. I have scoured the online news for, and can't find any, info on:

Singer Island. I have a niece with relatives on the island that no one has heard from.

Flooding between Naples & Marco south of 41 -- Fiddler's Creek in particular. My Dad's stuck in Naples proper & has no idea how his home fared.

Any info would be *greatly* appreciated.

[jeffers]

Hurricane Wilma: By the numbers

By Daily News

Tuesday, October 25, 2005

A look at how Hurricane Wilma has affected and will affect our daily lives.

Top Wind Speeds

Naples Airport 121 mph

Everglades City 97 mph

Collier Emergency Operations Center 125 mph

Southwest Florida International Airport 75 mph

Page Field in Fort Myers 68 mph

Bonita Springs 80 mph

Fort Myers Beach 100 mph

Port Charlotte 61 mph

Arcadia 59 mph

WINK-TV in Fort Myers 71 mph

Bellasera Hotel in Naples 86 mph

Cape Coral Elementary 80 mph

http://stormedition.naplesnews.com/news/2005/oct/25/wilma_numbers/



Additional news concerning SW Florida at:

http://stormedition.naplesnews.com/

[varina davis]

Uh oh. Look at this Nauti:

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE WILMA... LOCATED ABOUT 570 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND 440 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD- MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FORECASTER BEVEN

[MIsunshine]

Just read that Bonita Springs got nailed. I see that you haven't posted since before Wilma landed.

You okay?

[Strategerist]

The expected surge on Marco did not occur, just as it has not in any of the previous hurricanes.

Hopefully you're aware that this is pure dumb luck; Charley was a very narrow storm with limited surge that struck north of you, and the exact center of Wilma went a hair south of you, meaning you missed the right-side surge of the storm.

Eventually Marco Island will be wiped clean; just a matter of time.

[sheikdetailfeather]

I am so glad you are ok and I am sorry to hear about any damage to your propery. It was not very bad here N. of Orlando except for tornadoes. Glad everyone is helping one another there.

[NautiNurse]

To quote SamAdams76 from a few years ago:

"Hurricane season is over."

[jeffers]

Marak wrote:

"The expected surge on Marco did not occur, just as it has not in any of the previous hurricanes."



Four things protected Marco Island from Wilma's surge.

1. Wilma was accelerating as she made landfall, which can leave much of the surge behind. Very sparse anecdotal evidence tends to support this.

2. Wilma was strengthening as she made landfall. With Katrina, which was weakening at landfall, a Cat-5 surge accompanied a Cat-3 storm. Wilma demonstrated the opposite, a Cat-1 surge with a Cat-3 storm. The highest surge levels documented from anywhere in the Florida area was +5.6 feet ASL, nowhere near the projected 9 to 18 foot surges from pre-storm estimates. Wind accumulates and dissipates faster than water.

3. Wilma made a last second right hook just at landfall, placing Marco Island on the clean side of the storm. The strike geometry was especially beneficial with the curve of Wilma's right front quadrant perfectly matching Florida's concave coastlaine between Marco Island and Flamengo. As the outer eyewall made landfall, it ran inshore and parallel to the coastline all along the most dangerous arc of the storm. It couldn't push water onto the land, because it wasn't over ocean to begin with.

4. The old legend which protects Marco Island is still in effect, and now, will never die.

[You Dirty Rats]

From Florida Power & Light's Website:

FPL currently has a restoration team in the field of 6,000 -- including approximately 2,500 out-of-state contractors and utility workers. However, it is possible that customers will not see them working as they will be spread across the 22,000 square-mile territory that was hit by the hurricane.

FPL began assessment of damage to its electric grid yesterday and will continue today, but it will take days to complete the assessment effort.
There is extensive damage to FPL’s transmission lines and substations. Our primary focus in the early part of the restoration effort is to get these repaired. Concurrently, FPL is working to restore service to critical infrastructure to facilitate the work of those who provide for community health, safety and public welfare – such as hospitals, police, fire, communications and water, sanitary and transportation providers. FPL already has been in contact with all county emergency operations centers that have been activated as a result of the storm. FPL will maintain these communications with our community partners to be sure vital services are restored as quickly as possible.
FPL is asking customers to NOT call to report an outage. Please call only if there is a situation that presents a clear and imminent danger. Also please do not call again if you have already reported such a condition. Because of the wide swath of damage from Wilma, FPL is aware of many downed lines, so it may be days before restoration crews can get to all of them.
FPL thanks our customers for their patience and understanding as the FPL team works around the clock to restore power and help our communities get back to normal.
FPL Group, with annual revenues of more than $10 billion, is nationally known as a high quality, efficient, and customer-driven organization focused on energy-related products and services. With a growing presence in 26 states, it is widely recognized as one of the country's premier power companies. Its principal subsidiary, Florida Power & Light Company, serves 4.3 million customer accounts in Florida. FPL Energy, LLC, an FPL Group wholesale electricity generating subsidiary, is a leader in producing electricity from clean and renewable fuels. Additional information is available on the Internet at www.FPLGroup.com, www.FPL.com and www.FPLEnergy.com.

[jeffers]

I've put up some images displaying accumulated post Wilma data.

For comparison purposes, this is what was predicted before the storm:

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y138/jeffers_mz/Wilma/01Projection.jpg

This is what we actually got:

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y138/jeffers_mz/Wilma/03assessment2.jpg

Special thanks to NautiNurse and Flaattorney for links to surge and windspeed data.

The storm track displayed on the above image ignores the 0600 NHC datapoint located due north of Everglades City. I believe this plot was derived from radar interpretation of a very ragged eye and was placed inaccurately. Both radar and satellite data from the landfall period support this conclusion. It is possible (probable in my opinion) that the eye center dropped even further south than shown. Radar and satellite imagery indicated that the inner radius of Wilma's eyewall early exactly matched Florida's concave shoreline south of Marco Island at 0502 EST:

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y138/jeffers_mz/Wilma/05eyewall.jpg

It is possible that the center of circulation at 0500 was actually as much as 15 miles SSE of the NHC position. There were data anomalies with the 0400 plot, which was released, retracted, then re-released as discussed in this thread, and the 0600 plot is well out of line with the wobble recovery indicated by the 0400, 0500 and 0700 plots.

With significant questions surrounding the 0400 and 0600 plots and the data from other sources, I conclude that the 0500 plot is inaccurate. I used it for this image because it does not significantly affect the true landfall or eyewall locations.

Windspeeds indicated on this image are partly official measured gusts, and partly unofficial measured gusts. Keep in mind that many anemometers failed before registering peak sustained or gust speeds when attempting to reconstruct Wilma's windfields.



http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y138/jeffers_mz/Wilma/03subassessment1.jpg

This image was rendered from 3 meter per pixel Digital Elevation Models and shows normal sea levels and artificially induced sea levels at Everglades City. The artificial level is at 1.2 feet ASL to demonstrate the normal elevation for Everglades City. This, in conjunction with anecdotal reports of four foot deep surge at that location during the height of the storm, was used to derive the final figure used in the overall assessment image.



http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y138/jeffers_mz/Wilma/04subassessment2.jpg

This image was rendered from 10 meter per pixel Digital Elevation Models and shows Key West and the adjacent Boca Chica Key at artificial surge levels of +5.6 feet ASL. This represents the maximum surge level derived from anecdotal reports, which are indicated by the red arrows.

I strongly suspect that higher surge levels occurred between Everglades City and Key West, but am so far unable to document or estimate them. I'm in the process of statistically modelling surge distribution profiles for various storm parameters and hope to have that completed in time for next year's hurricane season.

I'm also working on modelling the frequent circulation center "right hooks" at landfall demonstrated by this year's storms so as to be able to indicate them or at least the potential for them on pre-storm projection imagery in the future.

If anyone is waiting for me to admit the pre-storm map includes projections that did not actually take place, I hereby so admit.

I was wrong. I apologize for that, and for any negative benefits that may have resulted from those errors.

I will also admit that given the same conditions, I would post those projections again, even with the benefit of hindsight. Those projections are based on the best available data at the time, and I believe their utility outweigh the possible consequences of error. Use them accordingly.

That's not to say I'm comfortable with error, I'm not. I know what elements were accurate, which ones turned out to be inaccurate, and am working on improving the shortfalls.

I seriously doubt that our predictive ability will ever be perfect, but that's no reason not to try.

[Marak]

Thanks for your concern. I have not heard of any injuries yet from the Marco Island area, so maybe we were blessed.

I was fortunate enough to have my daughter and two of her friends come down from Orlando to help us prepare the house for Wilma's onslaught. Without their help I probably would have lost the house.

[Marak]

With power recently restored I haven't had a chance yet to discover Wilma's actual path. I can tell from the winds we got here that she passed close to our south and then to the east after the eye passed over us. It was the east winds that devastated my place. Same exposure that Andrew used to punish us.

As for the legend, not sure which legend you are referring to. I heard someone on these boards mention the Indian burial grounds, but the high hill on the south end of the island is not a burial ground at all, as far as I know. It is touted locally as a shell mound, and it is 50-60 feet high. I understand the Calusa Indians were fishermen and would not contaminate the sea with their refuse.

If there is another legend concerning Marco Island, I would love to hear it. Old tales and legends intrigue me.

[NautiNurse]

Very happy you are safe, powered up, and in good spirits. Gotta love those linemen. They are awesome!

...and the sound of chainsaws is comforting music after a storm.

[buickmackane]

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD- MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.

"It's! ..." [cue "Monty Python's Flying Circus" intro theme music]

...forget it, I can't even begin to say the "B" word...

[MIsunshine]

"I was wrong. I apologize for that"

I think it was you that posted the storm surge map for Collier county. That's what finally got my dad out of his one-story condo between the coast & the everglades.

Thanks. Better safe than floating. No apology necessary.